1008 ｜Key Watch by Dolphin Research:

🐬 Macro/Industry

1. Hong Kong-listed LLM names weakened today as overseas leaders cut prices again, with Anthropic rolling out the next-gen 'Haiku 5.5' and lowering inference costs. OpenAI also launched lower-priced 'GPT-6 Sol' and 'Luna', with Luna's API priced ~50% below the prior GPT-5.6 series. Investors worry that as frontier models improve and API pricing falls rapidly, Chinese LLMs face more direct price competition, and Zhipu and MiniMax traded lower today.

🐬 Single Stocks

1.$BABA-W(09988.HK)

Alibaba shared a preview for next quarter this morning, which was overall solid. Cloud continues to see improving growth and margins as expected, while e-commerce is still bottoming but at least not deteriorating further. Key takeaways are in 'Alibaba Next Quarter Review'.

2.$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)

TSMC reported Q3 revenue up 51% YoY, beating estimates. Sep sales were TWD 511.9bn (+54.6% YoY, -0.6% MoM). Goldman raised its 2028 capex estimate to $98bn, with the AI expansion cycle extending beyond 2032. Strong YoY confirms robust AI demand, while the slight MoM dip suggests stable near-term cadence. Long-term aggressive capacity adds are positive for semi equipment and advanced packaging, but higher capex lifts depreciation and pressures GPM. The recent share pullback is more valuation digestion than a fundamental slowdown.

2.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

NVIDIA opened pre-orders for 'RTX Spark'. It also introduced a preview of 'DGX Station for Windows' for enterprise desktops, bringing desktop AI supercomputing to market. This rounds out consumer and enterprise desktop AI hardware, linking cloud compute with on-device AI and expanding customer use cases.

3.$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

Microsoft launched the flagship 'Surface Laptop Ultra' in San Francisco, powered by NVIDIA chips, claiming AI performance beats Apple's MacBook Pro M5 at a lower price. It also rolled out the personal AI assistant 'Scout'. Leveraging NVIDIA compute to challenge Apple's high-end laptop segment, the combined push of hardware and AI assistant steps up on-device AI, intensifying PC AI competition.

4.$Broadcom(AVGO.US)

Broadcom is in early talks to arrange about $30bn in debt financing for OpenAI, after just completing $60bn. Meanwhile, Korea's JNTC is supplying glass core substrates, accelerating fill rates. AI capex is increasingly shifting from internal funds to debt leverage, with Broadcom acting as OpenAI's financing conduit. Leverage amplifies upside in an upcycle but ties in credit risk; if compute orders slow, the downside could be sharp, so bond issuance bears close watching.

5.$TENCENT(00700.HK)

Media report that Tencent is considering issuing up to $5bn in offshore bonds. Offshore debt can optimize the liability mix and bolster liquidity, with low-cost funding supporting long-term AI investments. Watch the eventual coupon and use of proceeds.

6.$XPeng(XPEV.US)

XPeng's Robotaxi business was officially named 'XPeng Youyou', with a ride-hailing mini-program going live, moving from autonomous driving tech to operational rollout. Autonomy is shifting from demo to real operations, but near-term revenue impact is minimal. Scaling costs and regulatory policy remain the key uncertainties.

🐬 Top Gainers by Sector

A-share: Oil & gas storage/transport, refining & marketing, integrated oil & gas.

HK: Leisure facilities (stadiums), apparel retailers, energy equipment & services.

US: Kitchenware, pharma, movies & entertainment.

🐬 What to Watch Tomorrow

1) China Sep M2 YoY.

2) US Oct 1-yr inflation expectations (prelim).

Risk disclosure and disclaimer: Dolphin Research Disclaimer & General Disclosure