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Spotify

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1105 ｜Dolphin Research Key Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1. China has made adjustments to its tariff policy on the United States, announcing the suspension of the previously imposed 24% tariff rate on certain imported goods originating from the United States, while retaining the 10% additional tariff rate. The policy adjustment focuses on balancing trade costs and domestic demand, specifically covering a range of goods including machinery and electronic components. In the short term, the policy will alleviate market concerns about the 'escalation of the tariff war,' while in the long term, further adjustments to tariffs will need to be assessed based on the progress of Sino-US economic and trade negotiations...

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Elon Musk reveals new information about Tesla AI5; CDF plans its first interim dividend | Today's Important News Recap

Conference Minutes

The following are the minutes of the 3Q25 earnings call for $Spotify(SPOT.US) compiled by Dolphin Research. For a review of the financial report, please refer to &#34;Can Spotify's New Price Increase Cycle Fly Again?&#34; 1. Key Financial Indicators 1. Third Quarter User Numbers: In the third quarter, our monthly active users increased by 17 million, reaching a total of 713 million, exceeding our target by 3 million. We also added 5 million net subscription users, bringing the total number of subscription users to 281 million, a year-on-year increase of 12%, in line with our expectations...

Spotify (Minutes): Currently focusing on further activating the user ecosystem

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$Spotify(SPOT.US) The Q3 2025 earnings report was released before the U.S. stock market opened on November 4th, with mixed performance. However, the market's main concern—profit margin—actually exceeded expectations, leading to a slightly positive market response. Specifically: 1. Profit margin exceeded expectations: Since the third quarter, Spotify has made numerous product changes (nearly 30 updates of various sizes), including lossless audio quality, playlist editing, messaging, personalized audio settings, and collaborations with Amazon Alexa and ChatGPT, etc...

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Can Spotify's new price hike cycle take off again?

Spotify 3Q25 Quick Interpretation: The music streaming giant Spotify released its third-quarter results, which were mixed. However, the market's pre-market feedback was relatively positive, possibly because it alleviated major concerns about profit margins being under pressure before the earnings report. 1. Profits were impressive, despite the launch of many new features in the third quarter, the market had fully anticipated increased investments. In reality, both gross margin and operating margin improved beyond expectations. Operating expenses significantly contracted, with a notable decrease in social charges (generally following employee benefits fluctuations, including stock-based compensation, as Spotify's stock price fell by 10% compared to the end of the second quarter). The company also exercised strong control over marketing and personnel costs. 2. Q3 revenue grew by 7%, and by 12% excluding currency effects, continuing to slow down.(1) Advertising remains the main drag, and with the new head of advertising yet to take office, it is expected to remain under pressure for some time.(2) Subscription revenue grew by 9% year-on-year. In terms of volume and price, the subscription payment rate remained flat year-on-year, and the number of subscribers grew by 11% with the overall traffic trend. However, ARPPU continued to decline year-on-year due to exchange rates. Although there was a large-scale price increase in the third quarter, it was mainly implemented after mid-August, making it difficult to see a quick reflection within the quarter. Additionally, the second-largest market, North America, did not simultaneously increase prices, making it hard to offset the impact of the depreciation of the US dollar. 3. Revenue guidance fell short of expectations, with a focus on the subsequent price increase cycle. Management's Q4 revenue guidance of 4.5 billion euros fell short of market expectations. Besides advertising continuing to drag, subscription revenue is still mainly affected by ARPU (Dolphin Research estimates that ARPPU will decline by nearly 2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter), but the impact is slightly reduced. However, Dolphin Research is quite optimistic that some product innovations launched in the third quarter (such as changing shuffle play to 1-hour free on-demand, lossless audio quality, Amazon Echo integration, and embedding ChatGPT) will gradually show results (accelerating MAU growth, increasing user stickiness, and converting to paid users). Combined with the price increase cycle, this will drive ARPU out of the bottom of the growth cycle. $Spotify(SPOT.US)

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The following is the Q3 2025 earnings call minutes for $Amazon(AMZN.US) organized by Dolphin Research. For earnings interpretation, please refer to &#34;AWS's Major Reversal: Has Amazon Finally 'Turned the Corner'?&#34; 1. Review of Core Financial Data 2. Detailed Information from the Earnings Call 2.1 Key Executive Statements and Strategic Outlook 1. AWS Business Momentum: AWS growth rate reached its highest level since 2022, with a year-over-year growth rate returning to 20.2%. Achieving a 20% year-over-year growth on an annualized run rate of $132 billion is extraordinary...

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Amazon (Minutes): Computing power supply to double again by 2027

The following are the minutes of the FY25 Q2 earnings call for $Spotify(SPOT.US) organized by Dolphin Research. For an interpretation of the earnings report, please refer to &#34;Spotify: Price Hike Fails, Can High Valuation Still Hold?&#34;. 1. Review of Key Financial Information 1. Monthly Active Users (MAU) and Subscription Users This quarter, MAU increased by 18 million, reaching 696 million; net increase in subscription users was 8 million, bringing the total number of subscription users to 276 million, a year-on-year increase of 12%. 2. Total revenue was 4.2 billion euros, calculated at constant exchange rates...

Spotify (Minutes): Develop non-linear growth, with a greater focus on lifecycle value

$Spotify(SPOT.US) Q2 2025 earnings report was released before the US market opened on July 29th. The financial report once again fell short of expectations. Although the miss was significant, it was mainly due to external factors. Specifically: 1. Revenue fell short of guidance: Q2 revenue growth was only 10%, below both guidance and market expectations. However, there was a 5ppt foreign exchange headwind, and excluding this, the organic growth rate was 15%, higher than the original guidance of 14.2%, which is actually not bad. In comparison, the company's revenue guidance for Q3 appears somewhat weak, with the same 5ppt foreign exchange headwind...

Spotify: Price Increase Failure, Can High Valuation Still Hold?

Spotify 2Q25 first take: The second quarter performance was poor, but mainly due to external factors, essentially reflecting the impact of currency headwinds and employer social charges rising with market capitalization, among others. The long-term thesis remains intact.Although institutions had tuned down expectations early July, in reality, the latest earnings still brought some unexpected temporary pressure. 1. Revenue grew by 10%, significantly slowing from the previous quarter, with a 5ppt impact from exchange rates, meaning an original organic growth rate of 15%, slightly above the original guidance of 14.2% organic growth.The real problem lies in its Q3 guidance —— revenue growht is guided at 5%, even excluding the 5-point currency impact, it is below market expectations, which may be the main point of dissatisfaction.Driven by a new round of price increases in Europe (initially tested in Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, and planned to expand in the summer), the market originally had more optimistic growth expectations. 2. User metrics performed well, with both monthly active users and subscription numbers exceeding company guidance and market expectations in the second quarter. After making adjustments in response to an antitrust lawsuit on Apple's App Store in May, Spotify released a new version that more smoothly provides third-party payment channels. We speculate that this led to significant promotions, aiming at boosting user activity. 3. The dual pressure of revenue and expenses led to a noticeable short-term deterioration in profit margins. The boost from price increases was offset by currency impacts, and the opex back to expansion.OPex expansion is partly due to the end of an efficiency cycle and possibly due to the combined effects of the new version release, promotional efforts, and employee incentives rising with market capitalization (including Social Charges).However, with the release of the new version, the potential for improving conversion rates by reducing payment friction is worth continued attention. $Spotify(SPOT.US)

Below is the earnings call Minutes for Spotify FY25 Q1. For Quick Interpretation of the earnings report, please refer to《Spotify: Minor Flaws Don't Alter the Big Trend, High Valuation Faces Sentiment Kill》. 1. Key Earnings Highlights 1. Monthly Active Users (MAU) and Subscribers: MAU increased by 3 million to 678 million, with net subscriber growth of 5 million, reaching a total of 268 million subscribers, up 12% YoY. 2. Revenue: Total revenue was €4.2 billion, up 15% YoY at constant exchange rates. Among them...

Spotify（Minutes）：Business growth is non-linear, not in a hurry to enter the next round of price increases

$Spotify(SPOT.US) The Q1 2025 earnings report was released before the US market opened on April 29. Due to revenue and profit guidance falling short of expectations and already high valuations, the earnings miss triggered a sharp drop in the stock price. Here are the key points from the report: 1. Is the 20% revenue growth trend unsustainable?: The main reason for the sharp decline was that Q1 revenue itself fell short of expectations, and the company's Q2 revenue guidance of €4.2 billion was also below market expectations of €4.38 billion. According to the guidance, Q2 revenue growth would only be 10%...

Spotify: Minor flaws don't change the big trend, high valuation faces emotional kill

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