Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF

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Buffett suggests that most investors should keep at least a small cash position in their portfolios. Here's the Vanguard ETF that does the job.

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Warren Buffett calls this investment "the right thing for most people." 1 Vanguard ETF makes his case perfectly.

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The Federal Reserve's latest Financial Stability Report highlights elevated asset prices and investor optimism as key risks to financial stability. The report notes that market liquidity is vulnerable during periods of stress, particularly in the Treasury market. Geopolitical tensions, especially related to the Iran war, are contributing to increased volatility. While equity markets remain supported by optimism, volatility has risen. The banking sector is deemed sound, with strong capital levels, but concerns about elevated leverage among financial institutions persist. Geopolitical risks and oil shocks are top concerns among market participants.

- The Federal Reserve's latest Financial Stability Report identifies elevated asset prices and market froth as key risks to financial stability amid economic turbulence driven by the Iran war.  
- The report highlights compromised Treasury market liquidity during periods of increased volatility and notes that investor optimism persists despite rising concerns over risk compensation and geopolitical factors.  
- Although the banking sector remains resilient, the survey included in the report shows geopolitical risk and oil shocks as top concerns among market experts, reflecting heightened awareness of external threats to stability.

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Fed flags overheated markets as top stability risk

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Series I bonds are currently the best option for cash investments, offering a 4.26% annualized return, which surpasses traditional savings accounts and Treasury bonds. Experts warn that the popularity of I-bonds may signal rising inflation, reminiscent of 2022's economic conditions. While I-bonds have restrictions, they provide tax deferral benefits and are simpler than TIPS. Financial advisors suggest that I-bonds could be a safe investment for those looking to hedge against inflation, especially if trends continue to mirror past economic patterns.

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I-bonds are the best place to put your cash right now - and that should worry you

Treasury yields fell amid improving hopes of a breakthrough between the U.S. and Iran for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

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Treasury yields decline on hopes of Strait of Hormuz reopening

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The US Treasury has raised its borrowing estimate for the current quarter to $189 billion, up from $109 billion, due to lower net cash flows. The estimate assumes a cash balance of $900 billion at the quarter's end. The Treasury's borrowing in the previous quarter was $577 billion. Looking ahead, the Treasury expects to borrow $671 billion in the next quarter. Deutsche Bank forecasts smaller deficits for FY2026-FY2028, but warns of wider deficits under a high-estimate scenario. The Quarterly Refunding Announcement is scheduled for Wednesday.

- The US Treasury raised its borrowing estimates for the current quarter to $189 billion, attributing this increase to lower projected net cash flows and a higher beginning cash balance.  
- For the January–March 2026 quarter, Treasury borrowed $577 billion and expects to borrow $671 billion in the upcoming quarter, amid substantial historical borrowing needs.  
- Deutsche Bank forecasts smaller deficits for FY2026–FY2028 compared to previous estimates, though wider deficits could occur under specific scenarios, contingent on budget proposals.

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Treasury Boost Quarterly Borrowing Estimate To $189BN: Full Quarterly Refunding Preview

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The U.S. national debt has surpassed 100% of GDP for the first time since World War II, reaching $31.27 trillion as of March 31, while GDP was estimated at $31.22 trillion. The Congressional Budget Office projects the debt will exceed 106% by 2030, with potential negative impacts on economic growth and private investment. Maya MacGuineas from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warns that rising debt could lead to a fiscal crisis and urges lawmakers to take corrective action to stabilize the economy.

- The U.S. national debt has exceeded the size of the economy for the first time since World War II, with public debt reaching $31.27 trillion as of March 31.  
- Projections from the Congressional Budget Office suggest the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise to 108% by 2030, potentially reaching 120% in the following decade, which could hinder economic growth and increase interest costs.  
- Experts urge lawmakers to take immediate action to reduce budget deficits by $10 trillion to stabilize the national debt and avoid long-term fiscal crises.

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US national debt surpasses size of the economy for first time since World War II

The U.S. Treasury auctioned four-week bills with a winning rate of 3.595% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.98. Eight-week bills were auctioned with a winning rate of 3.605% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.91

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U.S. short-term interest rate futures rose as the market anticipated a greater likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026. (Jinshi)

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The market expects the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut to increase in 2026.

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has recommended that the United States prepare a contingency plan to prevent a collapse in demand for U.S. Treasuries due to concerns over federal debt. He warned that the consequences of a collapse in the Treasury market would be "devastating," and pointed out that addressing the U.S. Fiscal Deficit requires increasing revenue, adjusting taxes, and reforming spending, though mobilizing legislators to support such actions will face challenges

Former Treasury Secretary Paulson: Suggests U.S. Develop Emergency Plan to "Break the Glass" on U.S. Treasuries

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Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warns of potential instability in the Treasury market due to rising federal debt and financing needs. He emphasizes the necessity for contingency plans to address a sudden drop in demand for U.S. Treasuries, which could lead to severe financial disruptions. Paulson highlights the risk of a feedback loop where increased borrowing costs exacerbate budget deficits. He suggests that in a worst-case scenario, the Federal Reserve may need to step in as a primary buyer of government debt, potentially lowering bond prices and raising interest rates. Current Treasury yields range from 3.78% to 4.94%.

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Henry Paulson sounds alarm on potential Treasury market shock

Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF(VBIL.US)