Direxion FTSE China Bear 3X

Today’s Key News Recap

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0411 | Dolphin Research focuses on: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1. The China-U.S. trade dispute continues to escalate. The U.S. government announced yesterday that the tariff rate on Chinese goods exported to the U.S. will be further increased to 125% as a &#34;reciprocal tariff.&#34; Although Trump expressed that he &#34;very much hopes to reach an agreement with China to end the escalating trade war,&#34; there has been no substantial progress so far. Today, the Chinese Ministry of Finance firmly retaliated, announcing an adjustment to the tariff rate specified in the &#34;Announcement of the State Council Tariff Commission on Adjusting Tariff Measures for Imported Goods Originating from the United States,&#34; raising it from 84% to 125%...

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Firm counterattack! The tariff on the U.S. has been raised to 125% | Today's important news review

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Dolphin focuses on: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1. Today, both Hong Kong and A-shares were collectively booming, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering above 3300 points and the Hang Seng Index rising over 2.3%. The market is buzzing with &#34;short essays,&#34; mainly focusing on: 1) Two major meetings in December, with rumors suggesting one may be held earlier, as the market speculates on expectations for economic stimulus; 2) It is rumored that the December economic meeting will expand the deficit ratio to 4.5. However, currently, there is no clear evidence supporting these messages, and the direction of sentiment remains difficult to determine...

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Hong Kong, A accelerates explosion! What happened? | Today's important news review

PBOC Concludes Reverse Repo Operation, Net Relieving 231.1 Billion Yuan

PBOC Conducts 483.5 Billion Yuan 7-Day Reverse Repo Operation

China's central bank conducts 197.3 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation

FTSE China A50 Futures Open Higher

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The People's Bank of China has kept its Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged for the twelfth month, with the one-year rate at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5%. The central bank now prioritizes the seven-day reverse repo rate as its main policy tool, reflecting a shift towards a more market-oriented framework. Despite a 5% economic growth in Q1 2026, rising global oil prices and inflationary pressures complicate the case for further rate cuts, leading to a cautious approach in monetary policy.

- The People's Bank of China is set to announce the loan prime rate (LPR) on Wednesday, with expectations for the one-year and five-year rates to remain unchanged for the twelfth consecutive month.  
- The LPR serves as a benchmark for loans, but since mid-2024, the central bank has shifted focus to the seven-day reverse repurchase rate as its primary policy tool, providing more precise control over liquidity.  
- Recent economic growth and rising global oil prices have complicated the rationale for further rate cuts, leading the central bank to adopt a cautious approach while maintaining a supportive monetary policy.

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The People's Bank of China has left its Loan Prime Rates (LPR) s unchanged for the 12 month

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China's thermal-power generation increased by 3.1% in April, despite a 1% decline in coal production, as the country faces energy challenges due to the Iran war. Domestic thermal coal prices rose 23% this year, prompting power plants to stock up for summer demand. However, renewable energy sources like wind and nuclear saw decreased output, raising concerns about the country's energy transition. The government may consider price caps if coal prices continue to rise.

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China burns more fossil fuels for power as coal production slips

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China's April inflation data is expected today, following a surge in exports of 14.1% due to global stockpiling amid the Iran war. Analysts forecast the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be around 0.8% to 1.0% year-on-year, slightly down from March's 1.0%. Core CPI is expected to remain between 1.1% and 1.2%, indicating weak domestic demand. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to rise to 1.5% to 1.9% year-on-year, reflecting increased energy and commodity costs. The divergence between CPI and PPI will be crucial for market dynamics.

- In April, China’s export surged by 14.1% due to global stockpiling concerns stemming from the war in Iran.  
- Analysts predict that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April will be around 0.8% to 1.0%, reflecting a slight slowdown from March, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to rise between 1.5% and 1.9%, influenced by increasing energy and commodity costs.  
- The divergence between softening CPI and strengthening PPI will be a key focus for markets, highlighting the uneven nature of price recovery in China.

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Economic and event calendar in Asia Monday, May 11, 2026 - China inflation data

Inflation data from China for April 2026I'll have more to come on this separately

China April CPI 1.2% y/y (expected 0.8%, prior 0.5%)

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Hong Kong stocks closed on May 11 with the three major indices fluctuating narrowly to finish flat. Market trading was active, with full-day turnover exceeding HK$370 billion. Accelerated mass production of Nvidia's new AI platform and high prosperity expectations for memory chips catalyzed a counter-trend surge in the semiconductor, memory, and PCB sectors. SICC soared over 25%, while the 2x Leveraged SK Hynix ETF skyrocketed over 24%. Conversely, weighed down by concerns over US Inflation Expectations data and delayed rate cut expectations, tech Majority Stake stocks faced widespread pressure and retreated, with Alibaba and Baidu falling over 3%. Additionally, mainland property stocks strengthened, boosted by improving macroeconomic data and expectations of improved Sino-US relations, while the new energy vehicle sector showed divergent trends

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HK Stocks Close | Semiconductor Sector Leads Gains; Tech Majority Stake Stocks Retreat Collectively

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China's stock market ended a four-day winning streak, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,179.95, just below the 4,180-point mark. The market is expected to open higher on Monday, influenced by strong U.S. employment data. The index saw mixed performances among sectors, with energy companies facing losses while the property sector gained. The Shenzhen Composite Index rose slightly to 2,875.75. Wall Street's positive lead, driven by strong job growth, contributed to the optimistic outlook for Asian markets, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

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China Shares May Crack Resistance At 4,200 Points

China's President Xi Jinping is set to meet US President Donald Trump amid concerns over the Iran conflict, which may provide China with leverage due to its oil reserves and rare earths dominance. However, Xi faces challenges including a domestic economic slowdown, uncertain trade relations, and potential long-term impacts from the Middle East conflict. Analysts highlight the urgency for China to address rising domestic gas prices, the effects of US tariffs, and restrictions on its tech sector, all while navigating a sluggish recovery from the pandemic.

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'Genuine urgency': China's underlying concerns at the Xi-Trump talks

U.S. President Donald Trump is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in May, marking his first visit to China in eight years. The ongoing trade rivalry has seen China invoke anti-sanctions laws against U.S. blacklisting, while the U.S. imposes sanctions on Chinese refiners. Recent developments include U.S. Treasury Secretary urging China to influence Iran on shipping, and both nations engaging in trade talks amidst rising tariffs and export controls. The situation remains tense as both countries retaliate with tariffs exceeding 100%.

Fidelity

U.S. President Trump's renewed trade war with China

Chinese exporters are largely unfazed by US President Trump's upcoming visit to Beijing, viewing it as inconsequential to their business. Despite a 20% drop in exports to the US, they have successfully expanded into new markets, achieving a record trade surplus. The resilience of Chinese manufacturing is attributed to self-sufficiency and strong supply chains. While tariffs remain a concern, many companies are less pressured to relocate production, having adapted to the changing trade landscape. Executives express a desire for long-term stability rather than temporary truces in trade relations.

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Chinese exporters ‘numb’ to US threats as Trump set to visit

Investors betting against China through Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares (YANG) have faced significant losses, with the fund's value plummeting 99% over the past decade, closing near $28 today compared to $4,700 ten years ago. This decline is attributed to daily-reset leverage that exacerbates losses over time. In contrast, the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) has seen a 7% gain over the past year.

How investors lost 89% betting against China — even when their prediction was correct

Direxion FTSE China Bear 3X(YANG.US)