People wonder why I'm focusing on non-US markets recently.
Why? CPO is my #1 thematic long. Markets don't know yet, the sudden paradigm shift in photonics...I was one of the only to frontrun the current supercycle in 2025 w/ $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) @ ~$30, $Lumentum(LITE.US) ~$300s, and $AXT(AXTI.US) at ~$13 on X.... With the actual receipts and thesis that others can't show. CPO goes from ~$0. To $91 Billion TAM opportunity.In the next 1 1/2 years from GS research. While overall optical market reaches $154B. Many players that had little exposure to the current photonics cycle at all: -> In Europe with high-end lasers design like $SIVE or $SOI with substrates. -> In Taiwan with Foci (3363), Nextronics (8147), Shunsin (6451) and others for optical components and foundries. -> In Japan with laser mass production, substrates, and chemicals. Are suddenly the new dominant players for CPO. As for US players, there's not much exposure. But the existing ones like $Lumentum(LITE.US), $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) still get upside from CPO as that's their new growth vector. My contrarian thought process on current players:Is that most of their valuation is priced in huge legacy pluggable revenue that will inevitably face cannibalization over time, so re-rating potential is less unless someone uses leverage. A lot of these new purer play CPO names go from 0 to 100 extremely quickly one mass production starts H2 2026 for scale out (as a revenue bridge) into H2 2027 for scale up (massive growth driver). Markets usually price things in 8-12 months ahead of time too... I have high conviction thematically in my supply chain research despite any market volatility leading up until then.Source: Serenity
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