Memory fundamentals are still very strong (stronger than Q1).

$Micron Tech(MU.US) CEO:

- "We expect memory and storage supply demand conditions to be much tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028 than they were in 2026."

- "We do not have line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance."

Back in July, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) supply commitments rocketed from $119B -> $279B which was "primarily related to the procurement of memory", with ~$175B of commitments for 2028-29...

$Micron Tech(MU.US) also said that >75% of FY27 output is already committed + "a majority of discussions with our customers today are already around 2028."

So as a reminder....ultra long-term demand visibility in the context of the memory market.

Samsung’s Q3 prelim last week was 107.4T Won O.P. on 195T Won revenue:

- So that's ~55% margins company-wide.

- Micron did 87% GM in their most recent quarter

- $Sandisk(SNDK.US) 84.6% GM.

All accelerating/stabilizing margins as of their most recent fiscal Q's.

Mass production from new capacity (from Micron, Samsung and SKHY) is also not expected to come online for quite some time.

In other words, the shortage will intensify next year at least.

Then long-term contracts solidify long-term earnings further via price floors + committed volumes:

- $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 26 SCAs worth >35% of revenue through to 2030 with some now running into 2031.

- $Micron Tech(MU.US) CFO: "even at floor prices, we expect margins meaningfully above any prior cycle peak margins."

- $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) has ~10 LTAs of ~5 yrs w/ pricing structures "designed to respond to price fluctuations."

- Sammy (as of recent reporting) holds ~70% of memory capacity under LTAs until 2031 with $Microsoft(MSFT.US), $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) and $Alphabet(GOOGL.US), with ~25% of contract value prepaid.

- $Sandisk(SNDK.US) also has their "New Business Model" agreements with 8 customers that lock in ~66% of fy28.

Then on buybacks, $Micron Tech(MU.US) will step up returns from December - "over time, we expect to return 100% of our excess cash." Just crazy how much cash these companies are bathing in rn.

Obviously there are risks, mainly with positioning and sentiment towards the AI trade currently - thanks to macro/ARR fears/pacing talks/other stuff I'm probably forgetting rn.

China is ofc another risk with CXMT but I don't see how they'll be a massive problem for HBM / US hyperscaler RDIMM where they'll continue to face US restrictions + massive qualification walls imo.

But ultimately, memory fundamentals are in-tact and very strong.

Stronger than Q1.