2024 Week 15 Weekly Report
Portfolio NAV at the beginning of the year: HKD 2,307,716
Latest portfolio NAV: HKD 2,981,949
YTD return: 29.2%
Hang Seng Index YTD return: -1.91%
S&P 500 YTD return: 7.41%
Nasdaq YTD return: 7.75%
Portfolio
The portfolio's return this week was similar to last week, maintaining around 29%. However, it peaked above 31% mid-week but declined along with the market during Friday's sharp drop.
This week involved more trading activity, and overall, it wasn't ideal. Perhaps not trading would have yielded slightly higher returns. This highlights the difficulty of the market—there's a lot of noise, and sometimes avoiding risk ends up lowering returns.
Personally, I expect the market to remain volatile in the near future. I'll adopt a more conservative investment approach and wait for better conditions before aggressively investing again.
A detailed review of the portfolio holdings is shared in the Patreon members' area:
Hong Kong Stock Market
- Again, the Hang Seng Index faced strong resistance at 17,200 points and proved fragile. It has fallen sharply for two consecutive days, and the late futures dropped another 1.7% on Friday, suggesting a tough week ahead for Hong Kong stocks.
- However, Hong Kong stocks have always been about stock-picking rather than market trends. As of Friday, many quality stocks remained at highs, while others plummeted back to "hell."
- This situation reflects two points: First, liquidity isn't abundant enough to sustain a broad rally, so funds are selectively buying. Second, capital is rational, and quality stocks continue to attract interest.
- This is a scenario I, as a rational investor, am happy to see. As mentioned in my previous post, I've recently bought various stocks as core holdings for the year, aiming for both dividends and capital appreciation—"profiting from both."
- At the same time, I've shorted several Hong Kong stocks in the past two days to hedge against market declines and because I believe these stocks will continue to fall. I expect this "hedging portfolio" to outperform the broader market in the near term.
- In investing or managing a portfolio, it's impossible to completely avoid corrections. The goal is to lose less during downturns and gain more during rallies, ultimately increasing wealth over time.
- Regarding the broader market, global uncertainty and Iran's recent actions suggest a bearish tone for Hong Kong stocks next week.
- However, the Hang Seng Index is likely to trade sideways, with strong support at 16,000 points and resistance around 17,000 points. Stock-picking remains key.
U.S./Japan Stock Market
- Recently, both Japanese and U.S. stocks have weakened noticeably. I expect a consolidation phase, given reduced rate-cut expectations and geopolitical tensions like Iran's actions—both negative for the market.
- Moreover, Japanese and U.S. stocks have already risen significantly this year, leaving room for a pullback. A correction in April-May could set the stage for gains in the second half.
- Every bull market has corrections, so risk management is crucial.
- Two stocks stood out this week. First, NVDA, which has been weak for a while, dropping from around 960 to 830—a decline of over 10%. There's no major bad news, just competitors launching new chips to challenge NVDA, which is predictable.
- NVDA is in a highly profitable phase, and rivals naturally want a share. But NVDA's lead stems from years of R&D—"Rome wasn't built in a day." Catching up isn't easy.
- I often compare NVDA and its competitors to runners on a track. NVDA leads by 2-3 laps, but others are pushing hard. NVDA isn't standing still, either. The question is whether it can maintain its lead or if rivals will close the gap.
- Technically, NVDA is unmatched for at least 1-2 years.
- The other stock is Apple, which surged on Thursday and continued rising Friday after announcing its new chip. The market expects this to boost future sales of phones and computers, driving profits.
- As I predicted, AI-powered devices will drive a replacement cycle in the coming years, with Apple as a clear winner. Its stock, long undervalued, surged on the news. I bought calls and doubled my money in a day—a mix of luck and timing.
- Lastly, expect short-term volatility and manage risks carefully.
The above are personal opinions and not investment advice.
$Tesla(TSLA.US) $Apple(AAPL.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $MEITUAN(03690.HK) $TENCENT(00700.HK) $BABA-W(09988.HK)
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