2024 Week 20 Weekly Report

Portfolio NAV at the beginning of the year: HKD 2,307,716

Latest portfolio NAV: HKD 3,119,718

YTD return: 35.2%

Hang Seng Index YTD return: 14.7%

S&P 500 YTD return: 11.2%

Nasdaq YTD return: 11.2%

Portfolio

The portfolio didn't show significant growth this week, mainly due to the sharp drop in #PBR (Petrobras) after its CEO was fired. This is exactly the risk I've been emphasizing. Since the unfortunate event happened, selling was the only option. Basically broke even on PBR, just lost a little time - not too bad.

Fortunately, semiconductor stocks helped offset PBR's losses. The portfolio currently has some cash, so I'm considering other investments. On Friday, we made a 3-5% swing trade on AMD, which everyone followed - pretty good result.

Detailed portfolio review shared in Patreon member section:

Hong Kong Market

Only realized while writing this weekly report that the Hang Seng Index actually rose 20% in just one month - absolutely crazy. An index going from -10% to +15% returns in just months shows how extremely volatile Hong Kong stocks are.
Hang Seng is now above 19,000 points and still looks strong, possibly challenging the 20,000 level soon.
This rally feels similar to late 2022 to early 2023 - the market keeps rising strongly without giving any pullback opportunities. You have to chase highs.
When the market started falling in early 2023, that was actually the peak. By the time you waited for a "small correction", you were already holding the hot potato that never recovered.
At current levels, Hong Kong stocks are in a chicken rib situation - not enough meat to buy aggressively, but no strong reason to sell either.
This week's news focused mainly on property sector rescues - government land buybacks, home purchases, rate cuts etc. Definitely positive for the sector, but question remains how effective they'll be.
My view on property: short-term excitement, mid-to-long term still needs observation. The sector is simply too big to rescue easily. Ultimately depends on whether people have money to buy homes, not just policy changes.
Friday's Hang Seng Index quarterly review removed Country Garden Services and added BYD Electronic - another "brilliant" move.
Following Hang Seng Index changes would kill you. They should have removed 6098 when property started deteriorating, but waited until its market cap crashed from 100B to 20B, right when China is rescuing the sector - perfect timing to remove it!
In recent years, stocks added to Hang Seng Index usually peak (e.g., 316 OOIL at HK$300+), while removed ones often bottom (e.g., 2018 AAC). The index has somehow become a "stock market magic lamp" LOL

US/Japan Markets

US stocks quietly reached new highs again. With double-digit YTD returns for S&P 500, Nasdaq and Hang Seng, congratulations to investors - not an easy year.
AI is driving the market again, especially NVDA back above 900. NVDA's earnings next week will impact the entire US market.
NVDA's good earnings are certain - whether from TSM or US tech giants' results, AI development remains strong. NVDA won't be bad for years, but with its huge price rise and high expectations, further upside is questionable.
US stocks are difficult to invest in now - good stocks aren't cheap, cheap ones have poor fundamentals. With Fed rate cuts uncertain (maybe September?), the market lacks clear direction.
Latest CPI/PPI met expectations, but CPI dropping to Fed's 2% target seems impossible (still above 3.5%). Who knows when it'll reach 2%?
Being an election year, I expect one September rate cut to help the president, but multiple cuts seem unrealistic based on current data.
My expectation: quality US stocks continue slow rise without major surges. The overall market likely won't see big moves either way.

The above represents personal opinions, not investment advice.

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