
Reflections on financial news:
1. The negative policies for the banking sector have been fully priced in. Various measures like RRR cuts, interest rate reductions, and rate adjustments, including the adjustment of existing mortgage rates, have a neutral impact on bank performance. After these operations, the net interest margin of banks is expected to stabilize, meaning there will be no further negative impact on the future performance of bank stocks—this signals that all negatives have been exhausted.
2. On the positive side for the banking sector, improving the mortgage mechanism and the statement that banks and clients will negotiate independently based on market principles reflect future respect for commercial banks' market-driven pricing autonomy. This is a major positive for commercial banks' operations. This respect for market-driven pricing is also evident in comments about the decline in government bond yields. A market economy must respect the autonomy of commercial entities in pricing and decision-making, as well as their commercial contracts.
3. A positive for the six major banks. Plans to increase core tier-1 capital for the six large commercial banks are a significant boost to their stock prices and indicate further market share growth. The banking sector's business expansion is constrained by core tier-1 capital adequacy ratios. If the six major banks see substantial increases in their core tier-1 capital adequacy ratios, they will have the capital to aggressively expand their businesses, further squeezing smaller banks' market shares. Currently, the stock prices of the six major banks are significantly below their net asset values per share. How will core tier-1 capital be increased for these banks? Who will provide it? This is the biggest positive for their stock prices.
4. A series of RRR cuts, interest rate reductions, and rate adjustments benefit the stock market and the banking sector but do little for housing prices. The real estate issue stems from oversupply, housing bubbles, and aging properties, so prices will continue to fall. Those who prepay mortgages will still do so because deposit rates are set to drop again, and RMB asset yields will decline—keeping money in banks is worse than paying off loans. Mortgage transfers are not a positive for homeowners. Once a mortgage is transferred, banks will reassess the property value, reducing the loanable amount. The interest savings are minimal, and homeowners may even be required to prepay part of the principal, turning them into victims of poor decisions. Thus, mortgage transfers benefit banks but hurt homeowners. $SSE Composite Index(SH000001)$ $Industrial and Commercial Bank of China(SH601398)$ $China Merchants Bank(SH600036)$
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