Let's make a judgment. The positive news released tonight should not greatly exceed expectations. I see many people online discussing the base model starting at 24.8, but the expectations are not that high. Everyone should be realistic; the cost of car manufacturing is there, and the pre-sale price of L90 is already quite reasonable. This wave is because the price greatly exceeded everyone's expectations.

The final price announced tonight should be within the range of meeting expectations or slightly exceeding them, including some optional configurations being offered as standard to show sincerity. I think this part will be full of sincerity, so there's no need to worry too much.

I blindly guess that tonight's final price should have a space of 10,000, plus the pre-sale offer of 2,000 off 5,000 car price and 5,000 optional fund, totaling a space of 20,000. Overall, it's leaning towards positive news. I saw many people posting screenshots of group chats on Weibo yesterday, discussing the first month's delivery target. From the screenshots, it seems that the target of 7.5K to 8K is not a big problem.

I want to talk about the continuous decline in the past few days. I guess there are two groups of people reducing their positions. One group is selling after the positive news is confirmed, seeking certainty; the other group is worried that subsequent deliveries will still be weak as before, choosing to step back and observe. I think there's no need to worry too much. People grow, and so do companies. After suffering so many losses, if they still suffer in the same place, then there's really no hope. From the actions and performance this year, I think this company is still worth giving a chance.

But it also depends on whether you want excess returns or just ten to twenty percent. The corresponding risks are different.

Based on the above judgment, tonight's announcement is likely to return to above 5 yuan, then fluctuate around the 5 yuan line waiting for the first month's delivery data. The delivery data in mid to late month will likely be reflected in the stock price.

I added a bit during the pullback in the past few days, at 4.77 and 4.54, bringing the position to 130%+ of the target position, with the cost at 3.778. Not much, but it's all I have, and I trust my judgment.