Cooling US CPI paves the way for rate cuts, US stocks and cryptocurrencies rise together
Last Friday, the US September CPI data was released, with both the overall and core inflation indicators coming in below expectations. The September CPI data collection was completed before the US government shutdown. As the only major economic data released since the shutdown, it serves as an important reference for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. This Thursday, the Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate meeting, and the lower-than-expected September CPI data further paves the way for a rate cut. The market widely expects a 25 basis point cut.
Although tariffs have caused a "supply-side shock," passing on the increased costs to consumers and potentially increasing inflationary pressures, recent signs of weakness have emerged in the US labor market. The market strongly expects the Federal Reserve to prioritize addressing the economic slowdown. Moreover, "full employment" is one of the Federal Reserve's mandates, and labor market weakness is indeed a major concern for the Fed now. Additionally, current tariff policies often result in "TACO," and the implementation and potential expansion of tariff impacts remain uncertain.
The market has largely priced in the strong expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut. If a rate cut does occur, it would be positive for the stock market, but the reaction may not be particularly strong. Decoder suggests focusing on the Federal Reserve's wording after the decision to gauge signals about the extent and speed of future rate cuts.
The S&P 500 closed up 0.79%, the Dow Jones rose 1.01%, and the Nasdaq gained 1.15%.
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) initially fluctuated between 184-185 on the 24th, before being pulled up to 187 by buyers near the close, followed by slight selling, closing up 2.25%.
The KDJ golden cross has formed, opening an upward channel. If volume increases this week, coupled with the boost from NVIDIA's GTC Washington D.C. conference, the BOLL bands may open up, potentially pushing the stock price to the BOLL UPPER.
$Tesla(TSLA.US) opened higher but closed lower on the 24th, sliding from 446 to 433, down 3.40%.
Decoder previously mentioned focusing on Tesla's AI narrative, namely autonomous driving and Optimus. This time, Tesla's FSD faced inquiries, raising market doubts about the safety of its autonomous driving products, which could pose obstacles to widespread adoption in the future.
Sideways consolidation, BOLL bands nearly parallel. Watch for next Thursday's shareholder meeting, including Musk's performance bonuses and AI-related products. Likely positive, consider small additions at 418-425.
On the 23rd, Trump signed a full pardon for Binance founder Changpeng Zhao. JPMorgan plans to allow institutional clients to use their Bitcoin and Ethereum holdings as loan collateral by the end of this year. Trump's "pro-crypto" policies + Wall Street building a cryptocurrency ecosystem have ignited market enthusiasm.
$Coinbase(COIN.US) rose over 3% in early trading on the 24th, fluctuating higher throughout the day, closing up 9.82%.
Positive moves in the crypto space drove Coinbase higher, and with earnings approaching, further gains are expected. Consider small additions at 354-360, waiting for profit-taking opportunities.
$Circle(CRCL.US) rallied in early trading on the 24th, opening lower but closing higher, similar to Coinbase's movement. It closed up 9.39%. Compared to Coinbase, the upward momentum may be weaker, but historically, 350-356 is a decent opportunity for additions.
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