Be mentally prepared for long-term holding. The current valuation is extremely low, but risks still exist. The failure of the pulmonary fibrosis trial could drop it to the 30s or 40s. However, the core vaccine business and cash provide a solid value foundation. If the trial succeeds, it won't stop at 40. The commercial value of breakthrough pulmonary delivery is enormous.

Saw someone asking about this one. It's actually a speculative vote—either the valuation gets killed and drops to 5, or if things go well, there's a chance to hit 40. If you're stuck underwater, just stay put and don't make rash moves.$Arcturus Therapeutics(ARCT.US)

First of all, I would like to declare that I bought the dip on 9.8, so I have a vested interest. Straight to the point. People have been asking how to value these strange stocks, and it's actually quite simple—it's all about probability. The core odds of this investment decision: even if it rebounds to 20, the market cap would only be a little over 500 million. Let's break down the logic behind the market cap: the current market cap is severely compressed bankruptcy-level pricing ≈ $300 million in cash ≈ $200 million, which means: enterprise value ≈ $100 million...