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Speculation is the most thoroughly magical business in the world. But it is not for fools, not for those who are lazy in mind, not for those who are mentally unsound, not for adventurers seeking overnight riches. If these people rashly get involved, they will end up in poverty.

Jesse Livermore

    I originally planned to write a review and reflection after completing this gold trade, but I kept delaying it until now... I didn't expect Friday's flash crash to be so rapid and intense, but it was within expectations. The short-term speculative sentiment in gold and silver was overheated, with many people on social media flaunting their gains, which made me feel very uneasy. However, my silver short position still had some floating losses due to being set up a few days early. This is also a point for reflection: If Friday hadn't seen a flash crash but instead continued to break upward, would I have held and added to my position or simply closed it to cut losses? Only heaven knows.

The following content is for my personal review only and is not any investment advice.

• Gold

    I entered the Hong Kong and U.S. stock markets in August 2024, initially only knowing how to buy stocks and leveraged ETFs. Later, due to the trade war in April 2025, my account suffered a significant drawdown. I saw Brother Value @Value&Investment posting about long call operations in the community, so I followed and learned. Last year, I also achieved satisfactory returns. I’m very grateful to Brother Value for teaching me about options, which led me down this path of no return (manual doge). First, I define myself as a value speculator—or simply a speculator. Currently, for gold, I only trade in waves and don’t hold positions indefinitely.

    Actually, I’ve traded gold once before. From July 2025, spot gold rose from 3300 to around 4100, but I didn’t execute the trade well and underestimated the final upward surge. I took profits entirely between 4000-4100. It was my first time using long calls for gold. Leverage doesn’t just amplify capital—it amplifies human greed and fear. The aftermath was simple: After I liquidated, spot gold continued to surge to a peak of 4381. But I resisted FOMO and didn’t chase the tail end of the rally. On the day it hit 4381, I bought two short puts to bet on a pullback. In hindsight, it worked, but shorting still made me uneasy, so I closed the puts on the morning of October 21. Looking back, I sold too early.

    Learning from that experience, this time I started building my gold position on November 25, 2025, and kept adding until December 29, after which I stopped. By then, the position accounted for 70% of my total portfolio—all in options. Now, that seems extremely risky. In the future, I’ll strictly control option positions and use stocks to amplify returns instead of going all-in on options. As for why I was so confident in heavily positioning gold, I won’t delve into macro factors—there were many. Technically, after hitting a low on November 28, gold didn’t make new lows, and the lows gradually rose, which was a good signal. So I started buying on dips. On December 29, gold suddenly dropped 4.41%, but it didn’t break below previous resistance, so I added my final position and waited quietly for gold’s harvest moment.

    I didn’t know the exact top, but when social media and friends started flaunting gains and buying gold, it was likely near the peak. My initial target was around 5200, so I started scaling out from 5000 and fully exited around 5300. Unexpectedly, it surged to 5598, but I only took the meat of the move—the tail is for the braver ones.

• Silver

    I hadn’t traded silver before, but its trends usually follow gold, with greater volatility. So I also watched silver’s movements. Instead of options, I chose $Pro Ultr Silver(AGQ.US) and scaled out alongside gold due to its higher volatility. For shorting, I also picked $Pro Ultrshrt Silver(ZSL.US) instead of options. In hindsight, if I’d used options, I might have capitulated before the turnaround. At one point, my ZSL position was down 25%—who knows how much worse it would’ve been with options. As I write this, I’m still thinking: If silver had risen 3% on Friday, at what price would I have cut my losses?

• Summary

Despite last Friday’s sharp pullback in gold and silver, I remain bullish long-term. This year, gold may hit new highs, surpassing everyone’s expectations—but only time will tell.