Traded ValueI lost money shorting SanDisk before, and I saw you back then. To put it this way, if the stock price plummets, I wouldn't mock others who are long and lose money. Both shorting and going long have their own logic, and it's normal to be wrong. No one can predict short-term price movements. It's better to consider different opinions rather than immediately labeling someone as an idiot when they lose money or are wrong.
Based on the previous post, the estimated price levels for the Magnificent Seven after the Q1 earnings report,
1 NVDA has reached 240+, you can reduce positions.
2 TSLA has reached 452, close to 474, you can also reduce.
3 Microsoft is near 400, it's a good time to add, and it started rising immediately after adding.
4 Apple is very close to the upper limit, due to the tech stock sell-off it might be used to support the market, closely watch how far above 300 it can go.
5 Google and Amazon are also nearing the estimated reduction positions, continue observing.
7 I haven't mentioned META before because this company has some fundamental issues, but valuation-wise it's actually quite cheap, picking it up at 550-580 is cost-effective, reaching a yearly high of 680-700 shouldn't be a problem.
Let me share my view on the market outlook for May-June.
1 SPX was previously estimated around 7600+, currently made a high at 7500, May 15th is a well-predicted turning point node, instability from the Fed chair change policy + end of Trump meeting + uncertainty of Iran conflict + deteriorating economic data, CPI/PPI inflation picking up instead has rate hike expectations, with so many nodes together, it would be strange if it didn't fall.
2 Large IPOs sucking liquidity, this week's CBRS surged then fell trapping people, 6/12 SPACE X listing, due to its high valuation will be included in QQQ short-term, causing major institutions to sell some existing stocks to passively buy it, and the currently surging SOXX sector tech stocks will be sucked dry.
3 Harvest the retail investors who chased the highs and are not firm, from 7300-7500, is the stage where retail is most FOMO, many think the US stock market just hands out money for free, all come in and buy randomly, full margin on semiconductors, a short-term dip here and these people will immediately cut losses, institutions definitely won't go easy.
4 SPX's low is hard to predict, but this rally was driven by tech stocks' real profit levels, therefore, the long-term upward trend for tech stocks won't change. Maybe the May-June fluctuation range is 7200-7600, not a one-way move, but mainly oscillating.
My suggested strategy
1 Long-term just ignore ups and downs and hold tight.
2 For some short-term trades, try to use less 2X, 3X, the following is an oscillating market, easy to wear down.
3 There is a shorting window, but don't short tech stocks with particularly good earnings.
4 Funds will go to software stocks, IGV, MSFT, SNOW, NOW all have opportunities.
5 You can sell call to earn premium, for example SOXL, you sell call at prices above 200 which it can't reach short-term. Sell call SNDK above 2000, it also can't reach short-term, premium is not bad. You can let AI pick products for you.
6 NVDA earnings next week, based on its nasty character, it usually falls sharply. If it falls heavily to 200, consider building a position, if it surges and you're afraid of missing out, you can buy short-term calls, I will buy some weekly + monthly calls, losing them all won't cost much. Made quite a bit from 198-240 before.
7 TSLA observe the possibility of returning to the 421 support level, if it continues to fall deeply don't rush to bottom-fish, you can buy in batches, this stock is too volatile, be mentally prepared to be trapped immediately after buying to avoid panic selling, long-term it will definitely go to five-six hundred.
8 The long-term logic for storage hasn't changed at all, short-term it's still mainly sideways, a good low is actually a boarding opportunity, too many uncommitted retail investors here, the stock market is wealth transfer after all, not being firm is actually not recommended for playing storage, one big drop and they cut losses.
9 I'm not participating in IPOs.
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