Yesterday, the shares recorded in Hong Kong's CCASS for $Bilibili(BILI.US) rose from 282mn to 308mn, a net add of 26.29mn.
Typically, major shareholder sell-downs, placements/pledges, or equity award vesting result in paper certificates being moved into CCASS to facilitate secondary or block trades. This transfer-in is sizable, equal to 6.3% of Bilibili's total shares outstanding.
If the shares came from a single holder, Tencent is the most likely source given current ownership.
Post-trim, Tencent's stake would drop from 10.5% to 4.2%, raising nearly $500mn.
This is somewhat unexpected to Dolphin Research.
Tencent does not lack that $500mn, and if used for buybacks, at the current ~HK$500mn pace it would only cover a few days. Besides, Bilibili still has strategic value as a broad entertainment and AI distribution channel.
On the other hand, if Tencent is focused even on proceeds from trimming Bilibili, could other seemingly more 'valuable' assets also be up for sale?
In the coming days, Dolphin Research will revisit $TENCENT(00700.HK)'s portfolio to flag assets with higher disposal risk, and will re-run its cash-flow analysis to size this year's budget for capex and buybacks.
For Bilibili, near term it will need to digest negative sentiment and ease pressure from a rich valuation.
But the trajectory of marginal fundamental improvement from 2H should remain intact.
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