06.17 Mizi stock price 25, for those who are still holding on

This year, it's actually not just Xiaomi, the performance of Hong Kong stocks and new energy has been extremely poor, with widespread and sustained unilateral declines. I know that some long-time Mi fans have seen significant profit retractions, and some can't hold on anymore. In short, it's a severe test of mentality.

I. For Those Who Are a Bit Upset

After reading some research reports, the main reasons for the widespread decline in Hong Kong stocks can be attributed to three factors:

External Liquidity Shocks and Capital Diversion: At the end of last year, the market almost unanimously expected the global economy to enter a steady interest rate cut cycle this year, with the US dollar weakening. However, due to geopolitical factors pushing up oil prices and persistent overseas inflation this year, Fed rate cuts have been repeatedly delayed. Global liquidity has not eased but has instead tightened marginally. Additionally, global capital this year has been concentrated in markets with higher AI industry chain proportions, such as South Korea and Japan, leading to a passive, systematic reduction in Hong Kong stocks' share in global allocations.
Mismatch in Fundamental Structure and Industry Inward Competition (Involution): This year, the domestic macroeconomy shows a clear K-shaped divergence: external demand and tech hardware are extremely strong, but domestic consumption and internal demand are relatively weak. Hong Kong stocks happen to be a market concentrated with large-cap consumer stocks (e-commerce, new consumption, EVs, local services, etc.). This asset structure has run headlong into the relatively weak fundamentals. Internet and discretionary consumption giants are caught in extreme price wars, where although order volumes and GMV are rising, gross margins are being compressed, resulting in a much slower recovery speed for profit expectations compared to assets focused on overseas expansion or hardware.
Frictions in Trading Structure and Liquidity Black Hole: During the transition vacuum period where foreign capital is withdrawing and Southbound capital has not yet fully taken over pricing power, market buy orders are extremely scarce. Hong Kong stocks have highly efficient short-selling and derivative tools. In a stagnant or even shrinking market lacking right-side long support, a small amount of selling can trigger a long "stampede," allowing short-selling forces to amplify fundamental negatives on a technical level.

The comforting aspect is that, in a horizontal comparison within the Hong Kong stock market, Xiaomi is still one of the rare high-quality assets with ample cash on its books, strong fundamentals, and a clear growth engine, possessing relatively high medium-to-long-term investment value.

Currently, one aspect is the short-term cyclical and structural sell-off, and the other is the company's long-term investment value. These two are not contradictory; the stock price is the current comprehensive reflection of various superimposed factors.

II. For Those Who Are Very Upset

I once read a book called "How to Stop Worrying and Start Living." I've forgotten everything else, but I still remember one sentence—Live in day-tight compartments. If you're very worried and afraid, remember this: the past is gone, the future hasn't arrived, and today is very safe and real. Live in today's compartment, eat well, drink well.

Recently, I watched the movie "Letter to My Grandmother." I didn't sense much longing, but it reminded me of Yu Hua's "To Live" and Yang Jiang's "We Three." The poor have their way of living, the rich have theirs. Life is a process, you'll experience many things, and the most important thing is existence in this moment. And in what posture do we exist? In the "Thirteen Invitations" interview, Luo Xiang felt, "Among all human virtues, courage is the highest. When fate pushes you to a moment requiring courage, I hope you can be as brave as you imagine."

If you really can't stomach the motivational talk, then drink this dose of poison: Don't worry too much, because compared to 61, the number 25 is already insufficient for a second halving. That means normal operations can no longer incur losses of the same degree. Moreover, enduring a few more months of pain at this rate of decline, and you'll be delisted and free.

III. For Myself

Looking at this year's experience, I'm not a good trend follower. Maybe I'm a bit rebellious too. As I grow older, I've also developed more idealistic expectations for the world.

I admire the grand narratives of X, and I also admire those who make money with their own investment strategies. But I don't think there's anything wrong with believing in down-to-earth companies. I believe the values and capabilities demonstrated by this company will bring future markets and opportunities. Actually, being slow doesn't matter. The current agony lies in the sense of disconnect: on one hand, seeing Mizi (Xiaomi) achieving many successes, with continuous progress in cars and large models; on the other hand, the stock price's almost immune unilateral decline to any positive fundamental news.

For me, I originally planned to lie flat during the continuous decline, but I didn't expect the magnitude to be this large. Since a rise seems hopeless, I'll follow reason and suppress desires, and instead start focusing on the opportunities brought by the decline itself. So, after averaging down at 25, the next planned averaging down point is 20. Ignoring rises and falls, only looking at the price, execute according to the gradient.

$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)