Tencent Commentator
Feed ExplorerMicron, NVIDIA, Intel, AMD, Broadcom, SanDisk
Essentially, they have a symbiotic and co-prosperous relationship with the four major cloud providers (Meta, Microsoft, Google, Amazon) and OpenAI, Anthropic.
The only reasonable path for the pricing of these hardware manufacturers mentioned above is that the four major cloud providers can recover costs and make a profit from future data center construction.
Right now, the market is pricing in both the perpetual prosperity of hardware manufacturers and the inability of these cloud providers to recoup their investments 😅
An idea
In fact, we are already in a period similar to when the internet bubble was about to burst, but the evolutionary path is different.
When the internet bubble burst back then, semiconductors remained very strong for the first few months. Everything else was crashing wildly, but they were still oscillating at high levels.
This time, the divergence is even more severe. Within the broad technology sector, the hardware segment and the application layer are already very distinct, let alone other major sectors. This might be because the market liquidity today is not as good as back then, making it impossible to sustain a long-term, broad-based rally across thousands of stocks. (Or for some other reason, it doesn't matter anymore.) In short, the day of collapse or a major market shift shouldn't be far away.
Because the most important logic is: the current prosperity of the US stock hardware sector is entirely based on the expectation that other application layers and cloud companies will continue to invest heavily. This contradicts the current market trends and pricing mechanisms and cannot be sustained in the long run.
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