【個人筆記】兩周回撤 30%？這堂風控學費太痛！用 VIX 指數揭曉美股終極「抄底與逃頂」配方

Over the past two weeks, the market has been volatile, and many friends around me who have just entered the market have seen their accounts unknowingly retract by 20% or even 30%.

To be honest, this really hurts, but it is also the most honest warning the market gives us. If an account can lose 20-30% in just two weeks, the problem is often not "misreading the market," but that we may have unknowingly turned "investment" into a "gamble."

The temptation to double your money quickly or get rich overnight in the market is something everyone initially has. But the real market winners who can survive long and go far do so not because they are incredibly accurate, but because they have engraved "risk management" and "capital allocation" into their bones.

Mature traders almost never allow themselves to suffer such devastating drawdowns in just a few days. Because before thinking about how much they can earn, they always first calculate how much risk they can bear. As we have emphasized many times before, to become a winner who can reap huge profits, you must identify the trend while strictly adhering to our defensive discipline. Treat this drawdown as a lesson! Stop and re-examine your positions and risk controls, shifting from "thinking about getting rich" to "thinking about how to survive in the market long-term." This is the first real step into the threshold of trading.

How to survive in the market and capture big moves? Actually, understanding market sentiment is enough. This is everything you need to know to make millions in the stock market. Save this post, take a screenshot; you will definitely use it:

1. VIX Index Above 35: Strongly Enter the Market to Buy 🚀

• Target Allocation: High Beta tech stocks, growth stocks, small-cap stocks
• Reference ETFs: "$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) " (Tech/Growth), "$VG Growth(VUG.US) " (Growth Stocks), "$iShares Russell 2000(IWM.US) " (Russell 2000 Small-Cap)
Since 2018, every time the VIX index has surged above 35, it has been a "generational" once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity. Whether it was the COVID-19 pandemic bottom, the October 2022 low, or the tariff crash. If you had the courage to buy when everyone was panicking and screaming, you would have made a fortune by now.

2. VIX Index Between 25 and 35: Start Building Positions in Batches 📈

• Target Allocation: Quality tech stocks, financial stocks, industrial stocks, cyclical stocks
• Reference ETFs: "$Spdr Select Tech(XLK.US) " (Tech), "$Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF.US) " (Financials), "$Spdr Select Indu(XLI.US) " (Industrials), "$Invesco S&P 500 Eq Wgt ETF(RSP.US) " (Equal-Weight Cyclicals)
This is precisely where smart money starts building positions. Don't fire all your bullets at once; build up gradually in batches. The market's fear is real at this point, but the potential reward opportunities are even greater.

3. VIX Index Between 15 and 25: Hold Tight 🛡️

• Target Allocation: Balanced allocation (Tech stocks + Defensive sectors, Dividend growth stocks)
• Reference ETFs: "$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) " (S&P 500 Balanced), "$VG Dvd Appreciation(VIG.US) " (Dividend Growth), "$Ps S&P Low Vol(SPLV.US) " (Low Volatility Defense)
This is the market's normal state. Maintain your existing positions, don't chase highs blindly, and don't panic excessively. Strictly control your own hands and let your profitable positions continue to run.

4. VIX Index Below 15: Reduce Risk Exposure ⚠️

• Rotate capital to: Utilities, Healthcare, Consumer Staples, Bonds
• Reference ETFs: "$Select Sect Spdr Util(XLU.US) " (Utilities), "$Health Care Select Sector SPDR(XLV.US) " (Healthcare), "$SPDR FD Consumer Staples(XLP.US) " (Consumer Staples), "$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) " (Long-term U.S. Treasuries)
This is when everyone feels comfortable and at ease. No one is hedging, and no one is worried. And this is precisely the moment when you should start being most vigilant.

Currently, the VIX index is around 16. We are in the "Hold zone" range. Stay in the market, ride the main uptrend wave, but remain on highest alert at all times.

Finally, amidst the daily market watching and anxiety over account numbers, I want to share a heartfelt thought with all my fellow traders.

Often, we trade frantically to prove ourselves to the world. But at the end of life, no one will remember:
How big your house is, how busy you are every day, how many designer bags you own, what brand of luxury car you drive, or how many followers you have on social media.

What people will always remember is:
How you made them feel, the time you spent with them, the kindness and warmth you showed them, and whether you were someone they could rely on at critical moments.

But ironically, we still prioritize those "things no one will remember." Investing is meant to make life better, not reduce life to candlestick charts. Maintaining disciplined profitability in the market and spending quality time with the people you love in life—this is true abundance and success.