
NVIDIA
Blackberry Return RateWell written👏
$Sandisk(SNDK.US)$Micron Tech(MU.US) The trend is bullish!
Good weekend, everyone! I see many investors in the community busy every day worrying about the so-called big issues like the Federal Reserve, the Strait of Hormuz, and big tech spending. Many are also accustomed to short-term leveraged trading, chasing rallies and selling off, or trying to predict tops and bottoms, while ignoring the most critical strategic issues like AI development trends. Many people have failed to make money in this year's unprecedented AI industry chain uptrend, so I can't help but say a few more words.
We are fortunate to be in the early stages of the AI era. AI is the last industrial revolution in human history that we can imagine. AI will completely liberate productivity. In plain language, in the future, no one will have to do manual labor anymore. That ideal human society on the eastern shore of the Pacific is almost here, and its significance far exceeds any previous industrial revolution in history.
Current AI is still built on silicon-based technology, which is chips. Chips are currently an insurmountable hurdle in the AI era. Linearly growing production capacity cannot meet the demand that grows parabolically. CPUs, GPUs, and any xPUs are relatively mature in their development stages due to their long early development periods. The biggest bottlenecks currently are memory chips and optical interconnects. AI computing power demands are driving continuous advancements in chip technology and manufacturing processes. From materials to equipment to foundry (wafer, packaging) to chips to application products, these technical paths are very clear.
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In the stock market, everyone is here to make money. If people are still obsessed with looking back at the cyclical nature of past consumer electronics, they may be blinded and unable to see the future. You may already regret missing this year's AI infrastructure bull market, especially missing SanDisk. My articles from December 21st last year and New Year's Day this year said SanDisk's target this year is above $700 (my actual calculation was above $1000, discounted by 30% because I was afraid people would say I'm crazy). Moreover, it was the top gainer in the S&P 500 for two consecutive quarters, making history. At that time, the stock price had already risen nearly 6 times in a few months. Some said it would fall back to $50. This is the difference between your eyes seeing the past or the future.
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In US stocks, the forward P/E ratio for SanDisk and Micron Technology for the 2026 calendar year is now around 10x, far lower than other stocks in the industry chain. From a valuation perspective, I wouldn't buy any other stock. I only do what I see as the most certain. The same goes for A-shares. Because the safety margin is thick enough, I don't consider selling a single share of SanDisk stock before the end of next year. At most, I'll hedge through option swing trading. My view is that in the US stock S&P 500 over the next year, SanDisk will be first, Micron Technology second, and then the others...
The above is just a personal opinion and should not be used as an investment basis. I also do not accept rebuttals.
Wishing everyone good luck and prosperity!
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