$Tesla(TSLA.US) has been very busy lately, no time to watch the market. I checked the data seriously after midnight, first the conclusion.

I carefully compared, and it can't be directly defined as a bear market yet. It's more like high-flying hot stocks deleveraging.

Around 3 o'clock, the S&P fell about 0.7%, only about 1.3% away from its all-time high, but QQQ fell about 1.8%, and the semiconductor ETF fell over 4%. This shows it's not that the entire economy suddenly has problems, but funds are concentrated in cutting positions in storage, chips, Tesla, and new stocks—the most crowded sectors from before.

The current situation is more like last month, June 23rd. That day, the semiconductor index plunged 7.9%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.21%. The reason was also high AI valuations and rising rate hike expectations, but later the US-Iran situation eased, and funds quickly flowed back. The S&P rebounded from 7365 points to 7575 points last Friday.

If it's really like 2022, the scary thing is oil prices, inflation worries, and valuation compression. But now the S&P is still near highs, only about a point away from the high, but that's just speculation.

The real things to watch are the US June CPI data released tomorrow. If it continues to be higher than expected, then it should be imaginable.

If the S&P breaks below 7500 and can't recover, it's just weakening. But if it continues to break below the June 23rd low of 7365, then it shows this isn't just a shakeout.

There's too much leveraged money in storage and semiconductors now. The index might only fall 1%, but individual stocks can fall 10%-30%. If it were me, I couldn't sleep either.

Speaking of individual stocks, Tesla's long-term logic is still there, but don't rush to chase in the short term.

Pressure and support levels have been hovering. Those familiar with it naturally hold comfortably. As long as it doesn't effectively break below 370, it can still be understood as a large range oscillation.

Also, SPCX's current stock price is basically breaking the issue price right in the face. This price is much better than 150, but don't rush either, because the current share count... you know. Staggered buying is good. I hold a few hundred shares, not many, doesn't matter.

As for Hercules over there, I've unloaded a lot of leverage. Now it's indeed reached the current cost line, losing money. Everyone, don't rush to buy the US-listed shares either, because the ADR still has about a 25.6% premium compared to the Korean-listed shares. It's like the same company's shares, but the US version is a quarter more expensive.

Everyone, just wait, don't blindly enter the market. I have bullets in several accounts, buying in batches. Some are for short-term trading, just playing around. If you really have no patience, go buy stocks with good fundamentals supported by performance.

For the rest, watch the market less 🤫, trade less.