<p>美国联邦政府计划裁减就业岗位，可能出现衰退的警告信号已经显现，而关税可能引发贸易战。亚特兰大联邦储备银行对第一季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）增长的预测，从 2 月底预测的超过 2% 的增长，已降至截至 3 月 6 日的 2.4% 的下降。</p>
<p>尽管衰退的阴影通常对市场不利，但在这种环境下，有一只高收益的分红股票可能表现良好：<strong>AGNC Investment</strong>(AGNC -0.50%)。</p>
<h2>动荡市场中的高收益</h2>
<p>AGNC 是一家抵押贷款房地产投资信托基金（REIT），是一种拥有抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）投资组合的投资公司。它通过其投资组合中持有的抵押贷款收益与其融资成本（为购买 MBS 而承担的短期债务）之间的差额来产生收入。例如，如果融资成本为 4%，而它购买的抵押贷款支持证券的收益率为 7%，那么它将从投资中获得 3% 的收益差。</p>
<p>3% 的回报并不令人兴奋，因此抵押贷款 REIT 通常使用杠杆或借贷来增强其回报。它们通常还会部署对冲，以帮助将短期利率锁定更长时间，以更好地匹配其投资组合的到期时间。这一点很重要，因为它可以降低融资成本上升导致收益差缩小的风险，甚至融资成本超过 MBS 收益率的风险。就在不久前，30 年期抵押贷款的平均收益率还不到 4%。如今，按担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）衡量的短期利率已超过 4%。</p>
<p>那么，为什么 AGNC 在衰退中可能表现良好呢？有几个原因。</p>
<p>首先，抵押贷款 REIT 几乎完全投资于由政府或政府赞助机构支持的 MBS。因此，它几乎没有信用风险，因为基础抵押贷款基本上得到了政府的支持。截至 2024 年底，AGNC 的投资组合中 98.6% 为机构支持的 MBS，其中 96% 为 30 年期固定利率的机构支持抵押贷款。</p>
<p>衰退也可能导致美联储加快降息步伐。美联储去年 9 月开始降息，但由于经济强劲，今年暂停了降息。随着经济明显放缓，快速降息似乎在所难免。</p>
<p>AGNC 可能会从降低利率中受益，主要有两个方面。首先，通过降低短期利率，它可以降低融资成本并扩大收益差。AGNC 的平均净利差在最近几个季度一直在下降，从 2024 年第一季度的 2.98% 降至第四季度的 1.91%。这在很大程度上是由于对冲收入减少。</p>
<p>然而，这部分源于 AGNC 管理层更倾向于使用基于国债的对冲，这在其净利差或净收益中并未体现。截至 2024 年第四季度，其对冲中有 33% 是基于国债的，而按美元久期计算（因为这些是较长期的对冲），占其对冲投资组合的 53%。大约 70% 到 80% 的对冲通常是利率互换，用于帮助稳定利率。最近，基于国债的对冲表现更好，但 AGNC 会在互换利差开始稳定时更多地转向互换。</p>
<p>不过，主要观点是，较低的短期利率应有助于改善融资成本。</p>
<p>此外，任何长期利率的降低都应有助于 AGNC 投资组合的价值。由于 MBS 是一种固定收益工具，类似于债券，其当前价值受利率影响，或者在 MBS 的具体情况下，受抵押贷款利率影响。如果抵押贷款利率下降，AGNC 投资组合的价值（以其有形账面价值（TBV）表示）应会上升。抵押贷款 REIT 通常按其 TBV 的倍数进行估值，因此每股 TBV 的增加应有助于提升其股价。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEwNzMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTEyODQ5MjA5OC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEwNzMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTEyODQ5MjA5OC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>AGNC 值得购买吗？</h2>
<p>AGNC 每月支付 0.12 美元的分红，收益率超过 14%。这家抵押贷款 REIT 已经支付当前的分红近 60 个月，管理层对其能够继续维持当前分红充满信心。这得益于 AGNC 在当前环境下预计的 17% 到 18.5% 的回报。</p>
<p>总体而言，AGNC 是一只稳健的高收益股票，具有适度的价格上涨潜力，即使在衰退中也应表现良好。</p>

美国资本代理公司

<p>AGNC Investment 是一家抵押贷款房地产投资信托（REIT），由于其专注于政府支持的抵押贷款证券，可能在经济衰退期间蓬勃发展，从而降低信用风险。随着美联储可能会降低利率，AGNC 可能会受益于融资成本的降低和投资组合价值的增加。该公司提供每月 0.12 美元的股息，收益率超过 14%，并且在近五年内保持了这一分红水平。AGNC 预计的回报率为 17% 至 18.5%，这表明在当前经济环境下，它是一个强劲的投资选择</p>

<p>There are warning signs of a possible recession as the U.S. federal government looks to slash jobs, while tariffs could touch off a trade war. The Atlanta Federal Reserve's estimate for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the first quarter has gone from predicting growth of more than 2% in late February to a 2.4% decline as of its last estimate on March 6.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国联邦政府计划裁减就业岗位，可能出现衰退的警告信号已经显现，而关税可能引发贸易战。亚特兰大联邦储备银行对第一季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）增长的预测，从 2 月底预测的超过 2% 的增长，已降至截至 3 月 6 日的 2.4% 的下降。</p>
</div><p>While the specter of a recession is generally not good for the market, there is one high-yielding dividend stock that could perform well in this environment: <strong>AGNC Investment</strong>(AGNC -0.50%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管衰退的阴影通常对市场不利，但在这种环境下，有一只高收益的分红股票可能表现良好：<strong>AGNC Investment</strong>(AGNC -0.50%)。</p>
</div><h2>A high yield in a tumultuous market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>动荡市场中的高收益</h2>
</div><p>AGNC is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT), which is an investment company that owns a portfolio of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). It generates income through the spread between the yield of the mortgages it holds in its portfolio and its funding costs (the short-term debt it takes on to buy the MBS). For example, if funding costs were 4% and it bought a mortgage-backed security with a 7% yield, it would earn a 3% spread on its investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 是一家抵押贷款房地产投资信托基金（REIT），是一种拥有抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）投资组合的投资公司。它通过其投资组合中持有的抵押贷款收益与其融资成本（为购买 MBS 而承担的短期债务）之间的差额来产生收入。例如，如果融资成本为 4%，而它购买的抵押贷款支持证券的收益率为 7%，那么它将从投资中获得 3% 的收益差。</p>
</div><p>A 3% return is not that exciting, so mortgage REITs typically use leverage, or borrowing, to bolster their returns. They also generally deploy hedges to help lock in their short-term rates for a longer period to better match the maturity duration of their portfolios. This is important because it mitigates the risk of rising funding costs narrowing the spread, or even funding costs becoming higher than the yield on the MBS. It wasn't long ago that average yields on 30-year mortgages were less than 4%. Today, short-term rates as measured by the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) are above 4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>3% 的回报并不令人兴奋，因此抵押贷款 REIT 通常使用杠杆或借贷来增强其回报。它们通常还会部署对冲，以帮助将短期利率锁定更长时间，以更好地匹配其投资组合的到期时间。这一点很重要，因为它可以降低融资成本上升导致收益差缩小的风险，甚至融资成本超过 MBS 收益率的风险。就在不久前，30 年期抵押贷款的平均收益率还不到 4%。如今，按担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）衡量的短期利率已超过 4%。</p>
</div><p>So why could AGNC perform well in a recession? There are a couple of reasons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，为什么 AGNC 在衰退中可能表现良好呢？有几个原因。</p>
</div><p>The first is that the mortgage REIT invests almost exclusively in MBS that are backed by government or government-sponsored agencies. As such, it carries virtually no credit risk, as the underlying mortgages are essentially backstopped by the government. At the end of 2024, 98.6% of AGNC's portfolio was in agency-backed MBS, with 96% in 30-year fixed agency-backed mortgages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，抵押贷款 REIT 几乎完全投资于由政府或政府赞助机构支持的 MBS。因此，它几乎没有信用风险，因为基础抵押贷款基本上得到了政府的支持。截至 2024 年底，AGNC 的投资组合中 98.6% 为机构支持的 MBS，其中 96% 为 30 年期固定利率的机构支持抵押贷款。</p>
</div><p>A recession would also likely lead to the Federal Reserve picking up its pace of interest rate cuts. The Fed began lowering rates last September, but paused this year due to the strength of the economy. With the economy now clearly weakening, faster rate cuts appear to be in the cards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>衰退也可能导致美联储加快降息步伐。美联储去年 9 月开始降息，但由于经济强劲，今年暂停了降息。随着经济明显放缓，快速降息似乎在所难免。</p>
</div><p>AGNC could benefit in two main ways from lower rates. The first is that by lowering short-term rates, it could reduce funding costs and widen spreads. AGNC's average net interest spread has been trending lower in recent quarters, going from 2.98% in the first quarter of 2024 to 1.91% in the fourth. This is largely due to less hedging income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 可能会从降低利率中受益，主要有两个方面。首先，通过降低短期利率，它可以降低融资成本并扩大收益差。AGNC 的平均净利差在最近几个季度一直在下降，从 2024 年第一季度的 2.98% 降至第四季度的 1.91%。这在很大程度上是由于对冲收入减少。</p>
</div><p>However, some of this stems from AGNC management turning more toward Treasury-based hedges, which are not reported in its net interest spread or net spread income. At the end of Q4 2024, 33% of its hedges were Treasury-based, while on a dollar duration basis (since these are longer hedges), it represented 53% of its hedging portfolio. About 70% to 80% of its hedges are typically interest rate swaps, which are used to help stabilize interest rates. Treasury-based hedges have been the better value recently, but AGNC would look to move back more toward swaps when swap spreads begin to stabilize.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这部分源于 AGNC 管理层更倾向于使用基于国债的对冲，这在其净利差或净收益中并未体现。截至 2024 年第四季度，其对冲中有 33% 是基于国债的，而按美元久期计算（因为这些是较长期的对冲），占其对冲投资组合的 53%。大约 70% 到 80% 的对冲通常是利率互换，用于帮助稳定利率。最近，基于国债的对冲表现更好，但 AGNC 会在互换利差开始稳定时更多地转向互换。</p>
</div><p>The main point, though, is that lower short-term rates should help improve funding costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，主要观点是，较低的短期利率应有助于改善融资成本。</p>
</div><p>In addition, any reduction in longer-term interest rates should help the value of AGNC's portfolio. Since MBS are a fixed-income instrument like bonds, their current values are affected by interest rates, or in the case of MBS specifically, mortgage rates. If mortgage rates fall, the value of AGNC's portfolio, as represented by its tangible book value (TBV), should rise. Mortgage REITs are typically valued at a multiple of their TBV, so an increasing TBV per share should help boost its stock price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，任何长期利率的降低都应有助于 AGNC 投资组合的价值。由于 MBS 是一种固定收益工具，类似于债券，其当前价值受利率影响，或者在 MBS 的具体情况下，受抵押贷款利率影响。如果抵押贷款利率下降，AGNC 投资组合的价值（以其有形账面价值（TBV）表示）应会上升。抵押贷款 REIT 通常按其 TBV 的倍数进行估值，因此每股 TBV 的增加应有助于提升其股价。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEwNzMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTEyODQ5MjA5OC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F811073%2Fgettyimages-1128492098.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is AGNC a buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AGNC 值得购买吗？</h2>
</div><p>AGNC pays a $0.12 monthly dividend, which equates to a robust yield of more than 14%. The mortgage REIT has paid out its current dividend for nearly 60 months, and management is confident that it can continue to maintain its current dividend. This is backed by AGNC's projected returns of 17% to 18.5% in this current environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 每月支付 0.12 美元的分红，收益率超过 14%。这家抵押贷款 REIT 已经支付当前的分红近 60 个月，管理层对其能够继续维持当前分红充满信心。这得益于 AGNC 在当前环境下预计的 17% 到 18.5% 的回报。</p>
</div><p>Overall, AGNC is a solid high-yield stock with some moderate potential price upside that should perform well in the current environment, even if we head to a recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，AGNC 是一只稳健的高收益股票，具有适度的价格上涨潜力，即使在衰退中也应表现良好。</p>
</div>

Why This 14%-Yielding Dividend Stock May Perform Well in a Recession

- 美国可能面临衰退，GDP 增长预期从 2% 转为下降 2.4%。  
- AGNC 投资于政府支持的抵押贷款证券，几乎无信用风险。  
- AGNC 的股息收益率超过 14%，预计在衰退中表现良好。  

为什么这个收益率为 14% 的股息股票在经济衰退中可能表现出色