<p>经典的 “买入恐惧” 策略是有代价的。</p>
<p>从技术上看，市场仍处于犹豫状态，因为比特币 [BTC] 已经花费超过三天的时间试图巩固其 $90,000 的支撑位。随着 FOMC 的临近，买盘压力进一步加大。</p>
<p>在这种波动中，散户投资者自然被迫退居一旁。</p>
<p>因此，现在的重担落在了大户身上，以增强市场信心。真正的问题是，BTC 的 “价值储存” 叙述是否依然坚如磐石，还是在近期市场的恐慌中动摇了。</p>
<h2><strong>比特币脆弱的市场定位面临宏观风险</strong></h2>
<p>BTC 的市场定位仍然显得过于脆弱。</p>
<p>Glassnode 的数据正好说明了这一点。他们的风险指标显示，自 11 月中旬以来，BTC 已经跌破了 0.75 MVRV 分位，基本上表明大约 25% 的供应现在处于未实现损失状态。</p>
<p>当比特币处于这个区域时，抛售风险开始上升。即使是小的宏观冲击也足以迫使这些 HODLers 实现损失。现在，随着 FOMC 会议的临近，这种敏感性被放大了。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Glassnode</p>
<p>为了使市场稳定，比特币需要重新攀升至 0.75 分位，约为 $95,800。之后，下一个大障碍是接近 $106,200 的 0.85 分位。这是一个将标志真正恢复动能的水平。</p>
<p>在这些水平上，恐惧可能开始转变为更广泛投资者群体的 FOMO。在此之前，这一指标清晰地反映了当前投资者心理的状态：反应性强，并对宏观噪音高度敏感。</p>
<p>这使得即将到来的 FOMC 会议更加重要。</p>
<p>市场预计降息的概率约为 90%，情绪严重偏向看涨。这也意味着 “买入恐惧” 以积极的姿态开启 2026 年的成本比以往任何时候都要高。</p>
<h2><strong>第四季度回调挑战 BTC 的价值储存叙述</strong></h2>
<p>十月的崩盘没有放过长期持有者。</p>
<p>比特币的 LTH MVRV 从十月初的 3.35 降至目前的 2.5。这意味着长期持有者仍然坐拥可观的利润，但显然有些人获得了巨额收益，这加剧了回调。</p>
<p>Riot，这家比特币矿业公司，就是一个很好的例子。在其 11 月的更新中，该公司报告出售了 383 BTC，显示即使是长期持有的矿工也为了管理运营或锁定利润而进行清算。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-long-term-holder-realized-price-and-mvrv.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-long-term-holder-realized-price-and-mvrv.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Glassnode</p>
<p>在 ETF 方面，连续六天的流入总计约 2.86 亿美元大部分被逆转，在过去两个交易日中几乎流失了 74%。这表明 ETF 投资者仍然谨慎，并对市场波动反应敏感。</p>
<p>总的来说，比特币在第四季度的开局受到宏观风险、短期持有者的抛售、长期持有者的获利了结以及数十亿资金从 ETF 中流出的影响。结果是超过 30% 的回调，触发了市场的广泛清算。</p>
<p>在这种情况下，质疑比特币 “价值储存” 叙述的人并非完全错误。同时，抛售帮助 BTC 进行了重置，迫使投资者实时区分噪音与信念。</p>
<p>但问题仍然存在：比特币的叙述真的没有动摇吗？</p>
<h2><strong>市场情绪重新定义比特币的 2026 前景</strong></h2>
<p>大资金购买比特币并非偶然。</p>
<p>在过去三天中，机构活动有所增加。例如，管理着 10 万亿美元资产的查尔斯·施瓦布计划从 2026 年初开始让客户交易现货 BTC 和以太坊 [ETH]，并进行试点推广。</p>
<p>而且这还不止于此。</p>
<p>比特币财库公司 Twenty One Capital 将于 12 月 9 日在纽约证券交易所上市，带来约 40 亿美元的 BTC，可能成为第三大企业比特币持有者。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-05-140426.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-05-140426.png"/></p>
<p>来源：X</p>
<p>与此同时，美国银行允许投资者在四个比特币现货 ETF 中分配最多 4% 的投资组合，进一步将比特币推向主流，摆脱其旧有的投机形象。</p>
<p>综合来看，这些举动并非简单的 “巧合”。</p>
<p>相反，它们反映了比特币 2026 年前景的更广泛趋势：尽管持续的波动和市场恐慌，机构信念正在增强，巩固 BTC 的 “价值储存” 叙述。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最后思考</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li><em>比特币仍处于微妙的状态，面临长期持有者的抛售、散户的退场和 ETF 的资金流出。即将到来的 FOMC 决策进一步加剧了波动性。</em></li>
<li><em>尽管短期内存在恐慌，机构的举动表明强烈的信念，巩固了 BTC 的价值储存叙述。</em></li>
</ul>
<hr/>

<p>比特币 2026 年的前景取决于能否回升至关键水平以稳定市场情绪。目前的波动性和宏观风险对其价值储存的叙述构成挑战，但机构活动正在增加。FOMC 会议增加了压力，但机构的举动表明对比特币价值的强烈信心。散户投资者保持谨慎，而大玩家则增强了市场信心。比特币作为价值储存的叙述受到考验，但机构的兴趣表明尽管短期存在恐慌、不确定性和怀疑（FUD），其韧性依然存在</p>

<p>The classic “buy the fear” play comes at a cost.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经典的 “买入恐惧” 策略是有代价的。</p>
</div><p>Technically, the market remains in a state of indecision, as Bitcoin [BTC] has spent more than three days attempting to strengthen its $90k floor. With the FOMC approaching, pressure on bids is intensifying even further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从技术上看，市场仍处于犹豫状态，因为比特币 [BTC] 已经花费超过三天的时间试图巩固其 $90,000 的支撑位。随着 FOMC 的临近，买盘压力进一步加大。</p>
</div><p>In this volatility, retail investors are naturally pushed to the sidelines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种波动中，散户投资者自然被迫退居一旁。</p>
</div><p>As a result, the burden now falls on the heavyweights to reinforce market confidence. The real question is whether BTC’s “store-of-value” narrative is still rock solid, or if it has been shaken in the face of recent market FUD.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，现在的重担落在了大户身上，以增强市场信心。真正的问题是，BTC 的 “价值储存” 叙述是否依然坚如磐石，还是在近期市场的恐慌中动摇了。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Bitcoin’s fragile market positioning meets macro risk</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>比特币脆弱的市场定位面临宏观风险</strong></h2>
</div><p>BTCmarket positioning is still looking too fragile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BTC 的市场定位仍然显得过于脆弱。</p>
</div><p>Glassnode’s data shows exactly why. Their risk indicators reveal that since mid-November, BTC has slipped below the 0.75 MVRV quantile, essentially signaling that around 25% of the supply is now sitting at an unrealized loss.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Glassnode 的数据正好说明了这一点。他们的风险指标显示，自 11 月中旬以来，BTC 已经跌破了 0.75 MVRV 分位，基本上表明大约 25% 的供应现在处于未实现损失状态。</p>
</div><p>When Bitcoin is in that zone, capitulation risk starts to rise. Even a small macro shock can be enough to push these HODLers into realizing losses. Now, with the FOMC meeting coming up, that sensitivity gets amplified.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当比特币处于这个区域时，抛售风险开始上升。即使是小的宏观冲击也足以迫使这些 HODLers 实现损失。现在，随着 FOMC 会议的临近，这种敏感性被放大了。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>For the market to stabilize, Bitcoin needs to climb back above the 0.75 quantile around $95.8k. After that, the next big hurdle is the 0.85 quantile near $106.2k. It is a level that would signal real recovery momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了使市场稳定，比特币需要重新攀升至 0.75 分位，约为 $95,800。之后，下一个大障碍是接近 $106,200 的 0.85 分位。这是一个将标志真正恢复动能的水平。</p>
</div><p>At these levels, fear could start flipping into FOMO across wider investor groups. Until then, this metric is a clear snapshot of where investor psychology is right now: Reactive, and highly sensitive to macro noise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这些水平上，恐惧可能开始转变为更广泛投资者群体的 FOMO。在此之前，这一指标清晰地反映了当前投资者心理的状态：反应性强，并对宏观噪音高度敏感。</p>
</div><p>That makes the upcoming FOMC meeting even more significant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得即将到来的 FOMC 会议更加重要。</p>
</div><p>With the market pricing in roughly a 90% chance of a rate cut, sentiment is heavily skewed bullish. That also means the cost of “buying the fear” to kick off 2026 on a positive note is higher than it’s ever been.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场预计降息的概率约为 90%，情绪严重偏向看涨。这也意味着 “买入恐惧” 以积极的姿态开启 2026 年的成本比以往任何时候都要高。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Q4 pullbacks challenge BTC’s store-of-value narrative</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>第四季度回调挑战 BTC 的价值储存叙述</strong></h2>
</div><p>The October crash didn’t spare long-term holders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十月的崩盘没有放过长期持有者。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin’s LTH MVRV has dropped from a peak of 3.35 in early October to 2.5 at press time. That means long-term holders are still sitting on solid profits, but some clearly took big gains, which added to the pullback.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币的 LTH MVRV 从十月初的 3.35 降至目前的 2.5。这意味着长期持有者仍然坐拥可观的利润，但显然有些人获得了巨额收益，这加剧了回调。</p>
</div><p>Riot, the Bitcoin mining company, is a good example. In its November update, the firm reported selling 383 BTC, showing that even miners with long-term positions liquidated to manage operations or lock in profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Riot，这家比特币矿业公司，就是一个很好的例子。在其 11 月的更新中，该公司报告出售了 383 BTC，显示即使是长期持有的矿工也为了管理运营或锁定利润而进行清算。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-long-term-holder-realized-price-and-mvrv.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-long-term-holder-realized-price-and-mvrv.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>On the ETF side, six straight days of inflows totalling about $286 million mostly reversed, with nearly 74% gone over the last two trading days. This shows ETF investors are still cautious and reactive to market swings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 ETF 方面，连续六天的流入总计约 2.86 亿美元大部分被逆转，在过去两个交易日中几乎流失了 74%。这表明 ETF 投资者仍然谨慎，并对市场波动反应敏感。</p>
</div><p>All in all, Bitcoin’s start to Q4 was marked by macro risks, STH capitulation, LTHs taking profits, and billions bleeding out of ETFs. The result was a 30%+ drawdown, triggering broad liquidations across the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总的来说，比特币在第四季度的开局受到宏观风险、短期持有者的抛售、长期持有者的获利了结以及数十亿资金从 ETF 中流出的影响。结果是超过 30% 的回调，触发了市场的广泛清算。</p>
</div><p>In this setup, those questioning Bitcoin’s “store-of-value” narrative weren’t entirely wrong. At the same time, the sell-off helped BTC reset, forcing investors to separate noise from conviction in real time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，质疑比特币 “价值储存” 叙述的人并非完全错误。同时，抛售帮助 BTC 进行了重置，迫使投资者实时区分噪音与信念。</p>
</div><p>But the question remains: Is Bitcoin’s narrative truly unshaken?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但问题仍然存在：比特币的叙述真的没有动摇吗？</p>
</div><h2><strong>Market sentiment redefines Bitcoin’s 2026 outlook</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>市场情绪重新定义比特币的 2026 前景</strong></h2>
</div><p>Big money buying Bitcoin isn’t happening by chance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大资金购买比特币并非偶然。</p>
</div><p>Over the past three days, institutional activity has picked up. For instance, Charles Schwab, which manages $10 trillion in assets, plans to let clients trade spot BTC and Ethereum [ETH] starting early 2026 with a pilot rollout.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去三天中，机构活动有所增加。例如，管理着 10 万亿美元资产的查尔斯·施瓦布计划从 2026 年初开始让客户交易现货 BTC 和以太坊 [ETH]，并进行试点推广。</p>
</div><p>And it doesn’t stop there.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且这还不止于此。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin treasury firm Twenty One Capital will begin trading on the NYSE on the 9th of December, bringing roughly $4 billion in BTC onto the exchange and potentially becoming the third-largest corporate Bitcoin holder.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币财库公司 Twenty One Capital 将于 12 月 9 日在纽约证券交易所上市，带来约 40 亿美元的 BTC，可能成为第三大企业比特币持有者。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-05-140426.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-05-140426.png"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：X</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Bank of America is letting investors allocate up to 4% of their portfolios across four Bitcoin spot ETFs, pushing Bitcoin further into the mainstream and shedding some of its old speculative image.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，美国银行允许投资者在四个比特币现货 ETF 中分配最多 4% 的投资组合，进一步将比特币推向主流，摆脱其旧有的投机形象。</p>
</div><p>Taken together, these moves aren’t simply a “coincidence.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综合来看，这些举动并非简单的 “巧合”。</p>
</div><p>Instead, they reflect a broader trend in Bitcoin’s 2026 outlook: Despite ongoing volatility and market FUD, institutional conviction is growing stronger, reinforcing BTC’s “store-of-value” narrative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，它们反映了比特币 2026 年前景的更广泛趋势：尽管持续的波动和市场恐慌，机构信念正在增强，巩固 BTC 的 “价值储存” 叙述。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最后思考</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Bitcoin remains in a delicate position, with LTH capitulation, retail sidelining, and ETF outflows. The upcoming FOMC decisions further heighten volatility.</em></li>
<li><em>Despite short-term FUD, institutional moves signal strong conviction, reinforcing BTC’s store-of-value narrative.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>比特币仍处于微妙的状态，面临长期持有者的抛售、散户的退场和 ETF 的资金流出。即将到来的 FOMC 决策进一步加剧了波动性。</em></li>
<li><em>尽管短期内存在恐慌，机构的举动表明强烈的信念，巩固了 BTC 的价值储存叙述。</em></li>
</ul>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>

比特币 2026 年的前景：为何 BTC 的价格复苏依赖于这一水平