<p>作者：Isabel Wang</p>
<p>人们担心，中国在伊朗冲突中缺乏干预可能会促使美国在下周早些时候重新采取军事行动。</p>
<p>美中访问可能是股市对伊朗突破的最佳希望。</p>
<p>关税、台湾、人工智能——然后就是伊朗。</p>
<p>投资者在解析本周的美中峰会以寻找好消息时，可能会错过一个在不久的将来对他们伤害最大的消息。</p>
<p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在一群美国顶级商业高管的陪同下，于周三抵达中国，与中国领导人习近平进行高层会谈。</p>
<p>但随着美伊冲突进入第三个月且没有解决方案，华尔街的投资者一直希望华盛顿能够促使北京对德黑兰施加压力以达成协议。这使得伊朗成为一个可能在下周早些时候使市场动荡的问题，如果领导人在峰会结束时没有取得突破。</p>
<p>&#34;如果中国不愿意在美伊问题上发声，那么看起来风险窗口将在特朗普从中国返回美国的下周早些时候开始，&#34;麦格理集团的全球外汇和利率策略师 Thierry Wizman 表示。</p>
<p>见：特朗普和一群首席执行官在中国时的利害关系</p>
<p>可以肯定的是，作为伊朗石油的主要买家，中国在伊朗战争期间基本上保持了旁观，并避免对德黑兰施加压力以使其向美国做出让步。人们普遍认为，特朗普与习近平的会谈将主要集中在经济问题上，例如将贸易休战延长至 11 月，并在航空航天和农业等领域确保采购承诺。</p>
<p>&#34;不要对会议的结果抱有过高的期望。双方可能会将结果描绘为成功，但任何实质性的政策转变都可能是短暂的，&#34;Natixis Investment Managers Solutions 的首席投资组合策略师 Jack Janasiewicz 表示。&#34;关于伊朗，中国似乎避免参与此事，并可能在未来保持这种姿态。</p>
<p>&#34;[中国] 没有必要卷入这个泥潭，&#34;Janasiewicz 在周二通过电子邮件对 MarketWatch 表示。</p>
<p>见：特斯拉、英伟达及其他十几家公司首席执行官希望通过与特朗普一起前往中国获得什么</p>
<p>在过去一个月中，美国股市基本上对伊朗战争置之不理——标准普尔 500 指数自 3 月底以来上涨了约 14%——因为财报季节将投资者的注意力重新拉回到企业基本面。大型科技公司的强劲财报帮助标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数重新回到历史高位。</p>
<p>但在麦格理集团的 Wizman 看来，这正是下一个风险规避情绪的原因，可能由美伊冲突的再次升级推动，如果中国拒绝干预，风险可能在下周早些时候出现。</p>
<p>股市的强劲表现可能会让特朗普在下周承担更多军事风险，Wizman 在周三接受 MarketWatch 电话采访时表示。他的团队在麦格理创造了&#34;SALSA&#34;这个词——意为&#34;股票在上涨，所以攻击&#34;——与所谓的 TACO 交易相对立，后者代表&#34;特朗普总是退缩&#34;。</p>
<p>&#34;如果伊朗人没有做出让步，并且如果 [特朗普] 被中国拒绝，他们告诉他不会在这里帮助他，那么下周可能会发生这种情况，&#34;Wizman 表示。&#34;这不是我的基本观点，但我可以看到风险在他从中国回来后开始积累。&#34;</p>
<p>-Isabel Wang</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>05-13-26 1351ET</p>

纳斯达克中国金龙指数

中概股 ETF - PowerShares

中国 MSCI ETF - iShares

中国龙 ETF - Roundhill

<p>人们越来越担心特朗普总统对中国的访问可能不会在伊朗冲突中取得突破，这可能导致美国重新采取军事行动。投资者对此感到谨慎，因为美中峰会主要集中在经济问题上，几乎没有对中国在伊朗问题上进行干预的期望。分析师指出，如果没有取得进展，市场波动性可能在下周增加，尤其是如果特朗普感到在政治上有支持来升级军事行动的话。近期股市表现强劲，但与伊朗局势相关的风险可能在特朗普从中国返回后不久就会显现</p>

<p>By Isabel Wang</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Isabel Wang</p>
</div><p>There are concerns that a lack of Chinese intervention in the Iran conflict could prompt renewed U.S. military action as early as next week</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人们担心，中国在伊朗冲突中缺乏干预可能会促使美国在下周早些时候重新采取军事行动。</p>
</div><p>The U.S.-China visit could be the stock market's best hope for an Iran breakthrough</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美中访问可能是股市对伊朗突破的最佳希望。</p>
</div><p>Tariffs, Taiwan, artificial intelligence - and then there's Iran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关税、台湾、人工智能——然后就是伊朗。</p>
</div><p>Investors parsing this week's U.S.-China summit for good news may find missing the one that could hurt them the most in the near future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者在解析本周的美中峰会以寻找好消息时，可能会错过一个在不久的将来对他们伤害最大的消息。</p>
</div><p>President Donald Trump - flanked by a group of top U.S. business executives - touched down in China on Wednesday for high-profile talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在一群美国顶级商业高管的陪同下，于周三抵达中国，与中国领导人习近平进行高层会谈。</p>
</div><p>But with the U.S.-Iran conflict now in its third month and no resolution in sight, investors on Wall Street have been hoping that Washington can get Beijing to pressure Tehran into a deal. That makes Iran the one issue that could send markets reeling as early as next week if the leaders leave the summit without a breakthrough.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但随着美伊冲突进入第三个月且没有解决方案，华尔街的投资者一直希望华盛顿能够促使北京对德黑兰施加压力以达成协议。这使得伊朗成为一个可能在下周早些时候使市场动荡的问题，如果领导人在峰会结束时没有取得突破。</p>
</div><p>&#34;If China is unwilling to weigh in on the matter of the U.S. and Iran, then it seems as if the window of risk for a renewal of kinetic actions against Iran begins early next week, when Trump has returned to the U.S. from China,&#34; said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;如果中国不愿意在美伊问题上发声，那么看起来风险窗口将在特朗普从中国返回美国的下周早些时候开始，&#34;麦格理集团的全球外汇和利率策略师 Thierry Wizman 表示。</p>
</div><p>See: What's at stake as Trump and an army of CEOs are in China</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>见：特朗普和一群首席执行官在中国时的利害关系</p>
</div><p>To be sure, China, the primary buyer of Iranian oil, has largely stayed on the sidelines during the Iran war and has avoided applying pressure on Tehran to make concessions to the U.S. It's also widely believed that the Trump-Xi talks will focus primarily on economic issues, such as extending their trade truce beyond November and securing purchase commitments in areas such as aerospace and agriculture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以肯定的是，作为伊朗石油的主要买家，中国在伊朗战争期间基本上保持了旁观，并避免对德黑兰施加压力以使其向美国做出让步。人们普遍认为，特朗普与习近平的会谈将主要集中在经济问题上，例如将贸易休战延长至 11 月，并在航空航天和农业等领域确保采购承诺。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Don't expect too much to result from the meeting. Both sides are likely to portray the outcome as a success but any sort of substantial policy shift will likely prove fleeting,&#34; said Jack Janasiewicz, lead portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. &#34;Regarding Iran, China has seemingly avoided involvement in the matter and is likely to retain this posture going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;不要对会议的结果抱有过高的期望。双方可能会将结果描绘为成功，但任何实质性的政策转变都可能是短暂的，&#34;Natixis Investment Managers Solutions 的首席投资组合策略师 Jack Janasiewicz 表示。&#34;关于伊朗，中国似乎避免参与此事，并可能在未来保持这种姿态。</p>
</div><p>&#34;No need [for China] to drag themselves into this quagmire,&#34; Janasiewicz told MarketWatch in emailed commentary on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;[中国] 没有必要卷入这个泥潭，&#34;Janasiewicz 在周二通过电子邮件对 MarketWatch 表示。</p>
</div><p>See: What CEOs from Tesla, Nvidia and over a dozen other companies hope to gain by joining Trump in China</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>见：特斯拉、英伟达及其他十几家公司首席执行官希望通过与特朗普一起前往中国获得什么</p>
</div><p>The U.S. stock market has largely tuned out the Iran war over the past month - the S&amp;P 500 SPX has run up about 14% since the end of March - as earnings season pulled investor attention back to corporate fundamentals. Robust earnings from megacap technology firms have helped propel the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite COMP back into record territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一个月中，美国股市基本上对伊朗战争置之不理——标准普尔 500 指数自 3 月底以来上涨了约 14%——因为财报季节将投资者的注意力重新拉回到企业基本面。大型科技公司的强劲财报帮助标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数重新回到历史高位。</p>
</div><p>But in the view of Macquarie Group's Wizman, that's precisely why the next wave of risk-off sentiment, potentially driven by another round of escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict, could emerge as soon as early next week if China refuses to intervene.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在麦格理集团的 Wizman 看来，这正是下一个风险规避情绪的原因，可能由美伊冲突的再次升级推动，如果中国拒绝干预，风险可能在下周早些时候出现。</p>
</div><p>The stock market's strong performance may give Trump a sense of political cover to take on more military risk next week, Wizman told MarketWatch in a phone interview on Wednesday. His team at Macquarie coined the term &#34;SALSA&#34; - short for &#34;Stocks are lifting, so attack&#34; - as the opposite to the so-called TACO trade, which stands for &#34;Trump always chickens out.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股市的强劲表现可能会让特朗普在下周承担更多军事风险，Wizman 在周三接受 MarketWatch 电话采访时表示。他的团队在麦格理创造了&#34;SALSA&#34;这个词——意为&#34;股票在上涨，所以攻击&#34;——与所谓的 TACO 交易相对立，后者代表&#34;特朗普总是退缩&#34;。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It could happen next week if the Iranians are not making concessions and if [Trump is] rebuffed by the Chinese, who tell him they're not going to help him here,&#34; Wizman said. &#34;That's not my baseline view, but I can see where the risk would be building up as soon as he comes back from China.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;如果伊朗人没有做出让步，并且如果 [特朗普] 被中国拒绝，他们告诉他不会在这里帮助他，那么下周可能会发生这种情况，&#34;Wizman 表示。&#34;这不是我的基本观点，但我可以看到风险在他从中国回来后开始积累。&#34;</p>
</div><p>-Isabel Wang</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Isabel Wang</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>05-13-26 1351ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-13-26 1351ET</p>
</div>

Trump's China visit could rattle markets if it doesn't bring an Iran breakthrough

Dow Jones

Macquarie Group Limited

特斯拉

英伟达

标普 500 指数

纳斯达克综合指数

NVIDIA Corporation

如果特朗普的中国访问未能带来伊朗问题的突破，可能会扰乱市场