<p>作者：Steve Goldstein</p>
<p>OpenAI 首席执行官 Sam Altman（左）与软银集团董事长兼首席执行官 孙正义 握手。软银股票在周二被德意志银行下调评级。</p>
<p>通过对英国微处理器设计公司 ARM 的控制以及对 ChatGPT 制造商 OpenAI 的投资，日本投资集团软银在过去一年中价值几乎增长了五倍，并在周一成为该国最大的公司，超越了丰田。</p>
<p>现在，一位分析师受够了。德意志银行分析师彼得·米利肯将该股票的评级从持有下调至买入，同时将其目标价从 8,600 日元上调至 8,700 日元。软银（JP:9984）在周二又上涨了 1%，达到 8,632 日元。</p>
<p>“这段时间表现出色，主要基于精明的投资，部分原因是牛市越来越显示出进入狂热的信号。分析师和投资者似乎对短期动量过于关注，而对长期轨迹的详细假设则不太感兴趣或无法进行分析，” 他说。</p>
<p>“我们认为，在科技股价格急剧上涨和日元急剧贬值之后，软银投资者面临这两种趋势的逆转风险，我们现在认为该公司充其量只是风险的公平平衡，” 他补充道。</p>
<p>米利肯指出，软银控股 87% 的 ARM 计划在未来五年内实现收入和每股收益的五倍增长。“然而，如果它实现了每股收益目标，五年后将以 39 倍市盈率交易，而我们与之交谈的投资者似乎并不具备耐心，” 他说。</p>
<p>软银在二月份表示其持有 OpenAI 13% 的股份，分析师将其估值定为 1.2 万亿美元。OpenAI 估值每增加 1,000 亿美元，软银的目标价格仅会增加约 300 日元每股，分析师表示。</p>
<p>“我们已经注意到几个月，全球最大的 AI 公司可能成为市值前三的公司。在这个 2 万亿美元 IPO 成为可能的世界里，认为 OpenAI 的价值能够达到这个水平并不极端，但它也可能会从我们估计的水平下跌，这一水平远高于其最近的融资轮，而 Anthropic 的快速增长令人担忧，” 他说。“全球范围内广泛采用更便宜且更灵活的开源模型也令人担忧。”</p>
<p>-Steve Goldstein</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻通讯和华尔街日报发布。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>06-02-26 0435ET</p>

软银

软银(ADR)

<p>德意志银行将软银股票评级从 “持有” 下调至 “买入”，理由是对人工智能热潮和短期动能推动公司最近飙升至日本最大企业的担忧。分析师彼得·米利肯警告投资者过于关注短期收益，而忽视长期发展轨迹，并指出尽管略微上调了目标价，但仍存在对科技股价格回调和日元贬值的脆弱性</p>

<p>By Steve Goldstein</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Steve Goldstein</p>
</div><p>OpenAI CEO Sam Altman (L) and SoftBank group Chairman and CEO Masayoshi Son shaking hands. SoftBank stock was downgraded by Deutsche Bank on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OpenAI 首席执行官 Sam Altman（左）与软银集团董事长兼首席执行官 孙正义 握手。软银股票在周二被德意志银行下调评级。</p>
</div><p>Through its control of U.K. microprocessor designer ARM and investment in ChatGPT maker OpenAI, Japanese investment group SoftBank has nearly quintupled in value over the last year, and on Monday became the country's largest company, overtaking Toyota.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过对英国微处理器设计公司 ARM 的控制以及对 ChatGPT 制造商 OpenAI 的投资，日本投资集团软银在过去一年中价值几乎增长了五倍，并在周一成为该国最大的公司，超越了丰田。</p>
</div><p>Now, one analyst has had enough. Deutsche Bank analyst Peter Milliken downgraded the stock to buy from hold while nudging up his price target to 8,700 yen from 8,600 yen. SoftBank (JP:9984) on Tuesday rose another 1%, to 8,632 yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，一位分析师受够了。德意志银行分析师彼得·米利肯将该股票的评级从持有下调至买入，同时将其目标价从 8,600 日元上调至 8,700 日元。软银（JP:9984）在周二又上涨了 1%，达到 8,632 日元。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It's been a great run, based mainly on savvy investing, and partly on a bull market that has increasingly shown signals of entering a mania. Analysts and investors appear to us to have become fixated on short-term momentum, and less interested, or unable, to map out the long-term trajectory with detailed assumptions,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这段时间表现出色，主要基于精明的投资，部分原因是牛市越来越显示出进入狂热的信号。分析师和投资者似乎对短期动量过于关注，而对长期轨迹的详细假设则不太感兴趣或无法进行分析，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We believe that following the sharp run-up in tech prices, and sharp depreciation of the yen, SoftBank investors are vulnerable to a reversal of either of these trends, and we now think the company is, at best, a fair balance of upside and downside risks,&#34; he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们认为，在科技股价格急剧上涨和日元急剧贬值之后，软银投资者面临这两种趋势的逆转风险，我们现在认为该公司充其量只是风险的公平平衡，” 他补充道。</p>
</div><p>Milliken notes that ARM (ARM), 87% controlled by SoftBank, is targeting a five-fold lift in revenue and EPS over the next five years. &#34;However, if it achieves its EPS target, it would be trading at 39x P/E five years out, and yet we do not associate investors we have been talking to with patience,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>米利肯指出，软银控股 87% 的 ARM 计划在未来五年内实现收入和每股收益的五倍增长。“然而，如果它实现了每股收益目标，五年后将以 39 倍市盈率交易，而我们与之交谈的投资者似乎并不具备耐心，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>OpenAI, of which SoftBank in February said it had a 13% stake, is valued by the analyst at $1.2 trillion. Every $100 billion move in OpenAI's valuation would only move SoftBank's target price by some 300 yen per share, the analyst said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>软银在二月份表示其持有 OpenAI 13% 的股份，分析师将其估值定为 1.2 万亿美元。OpenAI 估值每增加 1,000 亿美元，软银的目标价格仅会增加约 300 日元每股，分析师表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We have been noting for some months that the world's largest AI firm could potentially be a top-three firm by market cap. And in this world where USD2tn IPOs have become possible, it's not extreme to believe that OpenAI's value could get there, but it can also drop from our estimated level, which is considerably above its recent funding round, and the speed with which Anthropic has grown is concerning,&#34; he said. &#34;Widespread take-up of the considerably cheaper, and more flexible, open-source models globally would also be concerning.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们已经注意到几个月，全球最大的 AI 公司可能成为市值前三的公司。在这个 2 万亿美元 IPO 成为可能的世界里，认为 OpenAI 的价值能够达到这个水平并不极端，但它也可能会从我们估计的水平下跌，这一水平远高于其最近的融资轮，而 Anthropic 的快速增长令人担忧，” 他说。“全球范围内广泛采用更便宜且更灵活的开源模型也令人担忧。”</p>
</div><p>-Steve Goldstein</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Steve Goldstein</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻通讯和华尔街日报发布。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>06-02-26 0435ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>06-02-26 0435ET</p>
</div>

日本新晋的顶级公司因对 AI“狂热” 的担忧而被降级