<p>人工智能（AI）革命使 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA +3.90%）几乎在一夜之间成为家喻户晓的名字。自 2022 年 11 月底 ChatGPT 公开发布以来，英伟达的股票上涨了 1100%——使该公司成为全球最有价值的企业。</p>
<p>然而，2026 年却是完全不同的故事。今年迄今为止，这家半导体明星的股票仅上涨了 5%。 随着股票的抛物线式上涨停止，密切观察的人可能注意到，英伟达的 市盈率（P/E）现在处于七年来的最低水平。</p>
<p>让我们深入探讨这一现象是如何发生的，以及这对未来投资英伟达意味着什么。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzgzNDAvbnZpZGlhLWxvZ28ucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="英伟达标志" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzgzNDAvbnZpZGlhLWxvZ28ucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>英伟达在 AI 芯片领域保持领导地位，但投资者担心竞争</h2>
<p>英伟达长长的图形处理单元（GPU）名单帮助公司在超大规模 AI 芯片领域保持了核心地位。公司的芯片是 训练大型语言模型（LLMs）和大规模运行 推理部署 的主要引擎。</p>
<p>主要云服务提供商如 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 网络服务（AWS）、<strong>微软</strong>Azure 和谷歌云平台（GCP），以及前沿 AI 实验室如 OpenAI 和 Anthropic，正在利用英伟达的 Blackwell GPU 架构和随附的 CUDA 软件 生态系统来构建 AI 应用。</p>
<p>怀疑者指出，投资英伟达时有两个主要风险来源。在宏观层面，一些投资者担心，如果 AI 基础设施投资的回报显现得较慢，AI 超大规模公司可能最终会减少 资本支出。在公司特定层面，<strong>超威半导体</strong> 的新加速器架构和 <strong>博通</strong> 的定制 ASIC 设计代表了可能侵蚀英伟达在某些数据中心工作负载中市场份额的竞争威胁。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="英伟达股票报价" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<p>英伟达</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(3.90%) $7.90</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$210.68</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$5.1T 市值仅计算公开交易的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或双重类别非交易股份。隐含市值可能有所不同。市值仅计算公开交易的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或双重类别非交易股份。隐含市值可能有所不同。</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$201.91 - $210.87</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$162.02 - $236.54</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>5.7M</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>158.9M</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>74.15%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>0.13%</p>
<h2>英伟达股票的未来走势如何？</h2>
<p>我认为上述担忧是合理的，并解释了英伟达市盈率压缩的许多原因。然而，历史提供了一种一致的模式。下图说明了英伟达估值轮廓压缩的每个先前时期，都是在盈利确认增长的可持续性后，随之而来的是强劲且持续的重新评级。</p>
<p></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率 数据由 YCharts. 提供。</p>
<p>这是为什么呢？原因很简单：市场最终遵循的是盈利轨迹，而不是情绪。</p>
<p>投资者目前正在折价的事实是，英伟达正在扩展其业务，超越 GPU，进入 AI 堆栈的相邻层。这包括与 <strong>诺基亚</strong>、<strong>Marvell Technology</strong>、<strong>Coherent</strong> 和 <strong>Lumentum</strong> 等公司的投资和战略合作。通过这些关系，英伟达在高性能网络、针对 AI 系统优化的 CPU 产品以及将庞大的 GPU 集群连接在一起所需的光互连方面变得越来越深入。</p>
<p>这些举措将英伟达的可寻址市场扩展到通用芯片之外。因此，该公司有能力创造额外的收入加速和复合收益杠杆。随着基于 Blackwell 的收入不断显现，而多元化努力也在扩大，英伟达的盈利基础应该会扩大——为有意义的 估值扩张 奠定基础。</p>
<p>总的来说，英伟达当前的市盈率水平似乎在经历多年的非凡扩张后，嵌入了一定程度的正常化。这一点很重要，因为它有助于消除对英伟达基础业务存在根本性恶化的想法。</p>
<p>现在，投资者实际上是在定价英伟达的增长将从其峰值速率放缓的可能性，而不是承认该公司的绝对盈利能力有扩展的潜力。反过来，这创造了一个相对于历史趋势看起来合理的估值设置，前提是公司能够执行其路线图。</p>

英伟达

1.5 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Tradr

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

<p>英伟达的市盈率已降至七年来的最低点，随着股票增长放缓，引发了对竞争和人工智能资本支出的担忧。然而，历史数据表明，估值压缩通常在盈利确认增长的可持续性后，预示着显著的重新评级。英伟达正在从 GPU 扩展到网络和 CPU 层，旨在扩大其可寻址市场和盈利基础，可能为未来的估值扩张奠定基础</p>

<p>The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution turned <strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA +3.90%) into a household name virtually overnight. Since the public launch of ChatGPT in late November 2022, Nvidia stock has risen by 1,100% -- making the company the most valuable business in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能（AI）革命使 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA +3.90%）几乎在一夜之间成为家喻户晓的名字。自 2022 年 11 月底 ChatGPT 公开发布以来，英伟达的股票上涨了 1100%——使该公司成为全球最有价值的企业。</p>
</div><p>However, 2026 has been an entirely different story. Shares of the semiconductor darling have gained a modest 5% so far this year. With the stock's parabolic rise coming to a halt, close observers may have noticed that Nvidia's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is now at its lowest level in seven years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，2026 年却是完全不同的故事。今年迄今为止，这家半导体明星的股票仅上涨了 5%。 随着股票的抛物线式上涨停止，密切观察的人可能注意到，英伟达的 市盈率（P/E）现在处于七年来的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>Let's dive into how this happened and what it means for an investment in Nvidia going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们深入探讨这一现象是如何发生的，以及这对未来投资英伟达意味着什么。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzgzNDAvbnZpZGlhLWxvZ28ucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA" alt="Nvidia logo." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F878340%2Fnvidia-logo.png&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia maintains leadership in the AI chip stack, but investors worry about competition</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达在 AI 芯片领域保持领导地位，但投资者担心竞争</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia's long roster of graphics processing units (GPUs) has helped the company maintain a central position in the hyperscaler AI chip stack. The company's chips serve as the primary engines for both training large language models (LLMs) and running inference deployments at scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达长长的图形处理单元（GPU）名单帮助公司在超大规模 AI 芯片领域保持了核心地位。公司的芯片是 训练大型语言模型（LLMs）和大规模运行 推理部署 的主要引擎。</p>
</div><p>Major cloud providers like <strong>Amazon</strong> Web Services (AWS), <strong>Microsoft</strong> Azure, and Google Cloud Platform (GCP) and frontier AI labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic are leveraging Nvidia's Blackwell GPU architecture and accompanying CUDA software ecosystem to build AI applications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要云服务提供商如 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 网络服务（AWS）、<strong>微软</strong>Azure 和谷歌云平台（GCP），以及前沿 AI 实验室如 OpenAI 和 Anthropic，正在利用英伟达的 Blackwell GPU 架构和随附的 CUDA 软件 生态系统来构建 AI 应用。</p>
</div><p>Skeptics highlight two main sources of risk when it comes to investing in Nvidia. On the macro side of the equation, some investors worry that AI hyperscalers could eventually moderate capex if returns on AI infrastructure investments prove slower to materialize. On the company-specific side, new accelerator architectures from <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> and custom ASIC designs from <strong>Broadcom</strong> represent competitive threats that could erode Nvidia's market share in certain data center workloads.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>怀疑者指出，投资英伟达时有两个主要风险来源。在宏观层面，一些投资者担心，如果 AI 基础设施投资的回报显现得较慢，AI 超大规模公司可能最终会减少 资本支出。在公司特定层面，<strong>超威半导体</strong> 的新加速器架构和 <strong>博通</strong> 的定制 ASIC 设计代表了可能侵蚀英伟达在某些数据中心工作负载中市场份额的竞争威胁。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Nvidia Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FNVDA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(3.90%) $7.90</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(3.90%) $7.90</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$210.68</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$210.68</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$5.1TMarket cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.Market cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$5.1T 市值仅计算公开交易的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或双重类别非交易股份。隐含市值可能有所不同。市值仅计算公开交易的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或双重类别非交易股份。隐含市值可能有所不同。</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$201.91 - $210.87</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$201.91 - $210.87</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$162.02 - $236.54</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$162.02 - $236.54</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>5.7M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>5.7M</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>158.9M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>158.9M</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>74.15%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>74.15%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.13%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.13%</p>
</div><h2>Where is Nvidia stock headed?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达股票的未来走势如何？</h2>
</div><p>I think the concerns detailed above are legitimate and explain much of the compression in Nvidia's P/E multiple. However, history offers a consistent pattern. The chart below illustrates that every prior period in which Nvidia's valuation profile compressed was followed by a powerful and sustained re-rating higher once earnings confirmed the durability of growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为上述担忧是合理的，并解释了英伟达市盈率压缩的许多原因。然而，历史提供了一种一致的模式。下图说明了英伟达估值轮廓压缩的每个先前时期，都是在盈利确认增长的可持续性后，随之而来的是强劲且持续的重新评级。</p>
</div><p></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p></p>
</div><p>NVDA PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率 数据由 YCharts. 提供。</p>
</div><p>Why is this? The reason is simple: Markets ultimately follow earnings trajectories, not sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是为什么呢？原因很简单：市场最终遵循的是盈利轨迹，而不是情绪。</p>
</div><p>What investors are currently discounting is the fact that Nvidia is expanding beyond GPUs into adjacent layers of the AI stack. This includes investments and strategic collaborations with companies like <strong>Nokia</strong>, <strong>Marvell Technology</strong>, <strong>Coherent</strong>, and <strong>Lumentum</strong>. Through these relationships, Nvidia is becoming increasingly embedded across high-performance networking, CPU offerings optimized for AI systems, and optical interconnects needed to stitch enormous GPU clusters together.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者目前正在折价的事实是，英伟达正在扩展其业务，超越 GPU，进入 AI 堆栈的相邻层。这包括与 <strong>诺基亚</strong>、<strong>Marvell Technology</strong>、<strong>Coherent</strong> 和 <strong>Lumentum</strong> 等公司的投资和战略合作。通过这些关系，英伟达在高性能网络、针对 AI 系统优化的 CPU 产品以及将庞大的 GPU 集群连接在一起所需的光互连方面变得越来越深入。</p>
</div><p>These moves expand Nvidia's addressable market beyond general-purpose chips. As such, the company is in a position to create additional levers for revenue acceleration and compounded earnings. As Blackwell-driven revenue continues to materialize while diversification efforts scale, Nvidia's earnings base should widen -- setting the stage for meaningful valuation expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些举措将英伟达的可寻址市场扩展到通用芯片之外。因此，该公司有能力创造额外的收入加速和复合收益杠杆。随着基于 Blackwell 的收入不断显现，而多元化努力也在扩大，英伟达的盈利基础应该会扩大——为有意义的 估值扩张 奠定基础。</p>
</div><p>All told, Nvidia's current P/E levels appear to embed a degree of normalization after years of extraordinary expansion. This is important to understand, because it helps silence the idea that there is a fundamental deterioration in Nvidia's underlying business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总的来说，英伟达当前的市盈率水平似乎在经历多年的非凡扩张后，嵌入了一定程度的正常化。这一点很重要，因为它有助于消除对英伟达基础业务存在根本性恶化的想法。</p>
</div><p>Right now, investors are effectively pricing in the possibility that Nvidia's growth will moderate from its peak rates more than acknowledging how the company's absolute earnings power is positioned to expand. In turn, this creates a valuation setup that looks reasonable relative to historical trends, provided the company executes on its roadmap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，投资者实际上是在定价英伟达的增长将从其峰值速率放缓的可能性，而不是承认该公司的绝对盈利能力有扩展的潜力。反过来，这创造了一个相对于历史趋势看起来合理的估值设置，前提是公司能够执行其路线图。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Stock Just Did Something for the First Time in 7 Years. Here's What History Says Happens Next.

- Nvidia 股价自 ChatGPT 上线以来上涨 1,100%，但 2026 年仅涨 5%。  
- 投资者担忧竞争和资本支出回落影响盈利能力。  
- Nvidia 此次市盈率回落或是市场对未来增长放缓的反映。

Motley Fool

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

ProShares Ultra NVDA

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - Leverage Shares

Leverage Shares 2x Cpd Acclrtd NVDAMnETF

NVDA 周配息 ETF - Roundhill

GraniteShares YieldBOOST NVDA ETF

xETFs NVDA Daily Income ETF

NVDA 期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

XI二南英伟-U

2 倍做多 MAG7 指数 ETF - Roundhill

半导体 ETF - VanEck Vectors

费城交易所 半导体 ETF - iShares

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF

标普半导体 ETF - SPDR

动态半导体 ETF - Invesco

纳斯达克半导体 ETF - First Trust

OpenAI

博通

诺基亚

迈威尔科技

Coherent Corp.

Lumentum控股

NVIDIA Corporation

Nokia Oyj

英伟达股票在 7 年来首次出现了新的动向。历史经验告诉我们接下来可能会发生什么