<p>投资者将在 7 月 14 日上午 8:30 看到最新的通胀数据，当时劳工统计局将发布 6 月份消费者价格指数（CPI）数据。</p>
<p>CPI 跟踪一系列消费品和服务的价格，并作为市场通胀的关键指标。</p>
<p>通胀在过去五年中一直高于美联储 2% 的目标。今年的整体年通胀因伊朗战争而激增，导致油价飙升。</p>
<p>市场甚至预计美联储将在今年晚些时候加息，以遏制顽固的通胀。以下是明天的报告对股市的重要性。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uL2FhMzllZjQ4MTkzZGZhYmRhYjE3YzQ1NDVkNWZlNDJlMGEzM2MwMjctNzk1Mng1MzA0LmpwZz93PTc5NTImaD01MzA0JnE9NzUmYXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uL2FhMzllZjQ4MTkzZGZhYmRhYjE3YzQ1NDVkNWZlNDJlMGEzM2MwMjctNzk1Mng1MzA0LmpwZz93PTc5NTImaD01MzA0JnE9NzUmYXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmdz0zODQw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>数据可能会偏软</h2>
<p>在 5 月份，通胀显著上升。CPI 在该月季节性调整后增加了 0.5%，同比上涨了 4.2%。剔除波动性较大的食品和能源价格，核心 CPI 同比上涨了 2.9%。</p>
<p>在 6 月份，美国与伊朗之间的紧张局势似乎有所缓解，双方甚至宣布了一项谅解备忘录。</p>
<p>油价大幅下跌，预计将为通胀提供一些缓解。</p>
<p>“在通胀方面，尽管油价比原油更为顽固，但 6 月份仍下降了 10%，这是过去十年中第四大月度降幅，” BMO 首席经济学家道格拉斯·波特在最近的一份研究报告中写道，引用了 Kiplinger 的内容。“6 月份汽油价格几乎没有季节性调整，因此这将单独削减整体价格的 4 个基点。”</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9925d81542bde3918f599bf94c6d75ff.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9925d81542bde3918f599bf94c6d75ff.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的美国消费者价格指数同比数据</p>
<p>克利夫兰联邦储备银行的实时预测工具预计，整体 CPI 将环比下降近 0.1%，同比上涨约 3.9%。</p>
<p>与此同时，核心 CPI 预计本月上涨 0.2，同比上涨 2.85%。</p>
<h2>市场可能的反应</h2>
<p>投资者不应过于解读整体数字，因为经济学家已经预计它会比 5 月份好。核心通胀更为重要，因为它受到能源和食品价格的影响较小。</p>
<p>最终，这份 CPI 报告是 7 月份下次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议之前的最后一个主要通胀数据点。</p>
<p>截至目前，市场认为美联储维持利率不变的可能性为 65%。市场还押注于 9 月份加息 25 个基点，以及 2027 年 1 月份再加息 25 个基点。</p>
<p>请记住，这些概率会频繁变化。</p>
<p>如果通胀数据如预期，FOMC 可能会在 7 月份的会议上维持利率不变。然而，如果报告显示通胀高于预期，市场将开始考虑在美联储 7 月份会议上加息，这可能会引发抛售。</p>
<p>如果核心通胀低于预期，市场可能会上涨，寄希望于美联储不需要像预期那样加息，甚至可能根本不加息。</p>
<p>投资者永远不应试图根据短期数据点进行交易，因为他们不知道数据会是什么样子，或者投资者会如何反应。</p>
<p>然而，了解可能影响市场的因素将使投资者更加冷静，从而使他们能够做出更理性的决策，即使这意味着对他们的投资组合什么都不做。</p>

美国 WTI 原油 ETF

2 倍做空彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

USOI

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

美国布伦特原油期货基金

<p>6 月消费者物价指数（CPI）数据将于 7 月 14 日发布，这对股市至关重要，因为它是在美联储 7 月会议之前发布的。尽管由于美国与伊朗关系缓和导致油价下跌，整体通胀可能会有所缓解，但核心通胀仍然是关键。市场预期 7 月将维持利率不变，而 9 月和 2027 年则可能加息。若核心通胀数据好于预期，可能会通过降低加息概率来提振股市，而更热的数据则可能引发抛售</p>

<p>Investors will get their latest look at inflation when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading at 8:30 a.m. on July 14.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者将在 7 月 14 日上午 8:30 看到最新的通胀数据，当时劳工统计局将发布 6 月份消费者价格指数（CPI）数据。</p>
</div><p>The CPI tracks the prices of a range of consumer goods and services and serves as a key gauge of inflation for the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CPI 跟踪一系列消费品和服务的价格，并作为市场通胀的关键指标。</p>
</div><p>Inflation has remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target now for over five years. Headline year-over-year inflation has surged this year, due to the Iran war, which sent oil prices soaring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通胀在过去五年中一直高于美联储 2% 的目标。今年的整体年通胀因伊朗战争而激增，导致油价飙升。</p>
</div><p>The market even expects the Fed to raise interest rates later this year to rein in sticky inflation. Here’s why tomorrow’s report is a big deal for the stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场甚至预计美联储将在今年晚些时候加息，以遏制顽固的通胀。以下是明天的报告对股市的重要性。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uL2FhMzllZjQ4MTkzZGZhYmRhYjE3YzQ1NDVkNWZlNDJlMGEzM2MwMjctNzk1Mng1MzA0LmpwZz93PTc5NTImaD01MzA0JnE9NzUmYXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmdz0zODQw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.content.foolcdn.com%2Fimages%2F1umn9qeh%2Fproduction%2Faa39ef48193dfabdab17c4545d5fe42e0a33c027-7952x5304.jpg%3Fw%3D7952%26h%3D5304%26q%3D75%26auto%3Dformat&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The data may come in soft</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>数据可能会偏软</h2>
</div><p>In May, inflation rose significantly. The CPI increased 0.5% seasonally adjusted during the month and was 4.2% higher year over year. Stripping out more volatile food and energy prices, core CPI was 2.9% higher year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 5 月份，通胀显著上升。CPI 在该月季节性调整后增加了 0.5%，同比上涨了 4.2%。剔除波动性较大的食品和能源价格，核心 CPI 同比上涨了 2.9%。</p>
</div><p>During June, tensions between the U.S. and Iran appeared to de-escalate, and the two sides even announced a memorandum of understanding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 6 月份，美国与伊朗之间的紧张局势似乎有所缓解，双方甚至宣布了一项谅解备忘录。</p>
</div><p>Oil prices fell dramatically, which is expected to provide some relief from inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价大幅下跌，预计将为通胀提供一些缓解。</p>
</div><p>&#34;On inflation, while pump prices have been stickier than crude, they still fell 10% in June, or the fourth largest monthly decline in the past decade,&#34; BMO Chief Economist Douglas Porter wrote in a recent research note, according to Kiplinger. &#34;There's not much of a seasonal adjustment in June gasoline prices, so that alone will carve 4 ticks from overall prices.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在通胀方面，尽管油价比原油更为顽固，但 6 月份仍下降了 10%，这是过去十年中第四大月度降幅，” BMO 首席经济学家道格拉斯·波特在最近的一份研究报告中写道，引用了 Kiplinger 的内容。“6 月份汽油价格几乎没有季节性调整，因此这将单独削减整体价格的 4 个基点。”</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9925d81542bde3918f599bf94c6d75ff.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9925d81542bde3918f599bf94c6d75ff.png"/></p>
<p>US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的美国消费者价格指数同比数据</p>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Nowcasting tool expects headline CPI to fall nearly 0.1% on the month and be up about 3.9% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>克利夫兰联邦储备银行的实时预测工具预计，整体 CPI 将环比下降近 0.1%，同比上涨约 3.9%。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, core CPI is projected to rise 0.2 for the month and be up 2.85% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，核心 CPI 预计本月上涨 0.2，同比上涨 2.85%。</p>
</div><h2>How the market could respond</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市场可能的反应</h2>
</div><p>Investors should not read too much into the headline number, as economists already expect it to look better than in May. Core inflation is more important, as it is much less influenced by energy and food prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者不应过于解读整体数字，因为经济学家已经预计它会比 5 月份好。核心通胀更为重要，因为它受到能源和食品价格的影响较小。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, this CPI report is the last major inflation data point before the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in July.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，这份 CPI 报告是 7 月份下次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议之前的最后一个主要通胀数据点。</p>
</div><p>As of this writing, the market is placing a 65% likelihood that the Fed will hold rates steady. The market is also betting on a quarter-point interest rate hike in September and a second quarter-point hike in January of 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，市场认为美联储维持利率不变的可能性为 65%。市场还押注于 9 月份加息 25 个基点，以及 2027 年 1 月份再加息 25 个基点。</p>
</div><p>Keep in mind these odds change frequently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请记住，这些概率会频繁变化。</p>
</div><p>If inflation comes in as expected, the FOMC will likely hold rates steady at its July meeting. However, if the report shows higher-than-expected inflation, the market will begin to consider a rate hike at the Fed’s July meeting, which could trigger a sell-off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果通胀数据如预期，FOMC 可能会在 7 月份的会议上维持利率不变。然而，如果报告显示通胀高于预期，市场将开始考虑在美联储 7 月份会议上加息，这可能会引发抛售。</p>
</div><p>If core inflation comes in lighter than expected, the market may rise on hopes that the Fed won’t need to raise interest rates as much as expected, and potentially not at all.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果核心通胀低于预期，市场可能会上涨，寄希望于美联储不需要像预期那样加息，甚至可能根本不加息。</p>
</div><p>Investors should never try to trade based on a near-term data point, as they don’t know what the data will look like or how investors will react.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者永远不应试图根据短期数据点进行交易，因为他们不知道数据会是什么样子，或者投资者会如何反应。</p>
</div><p>However, understanding what could move the market will keep investors calmer, allowing them to make more rational decisions, even if that means doing nothing at all to their portfolios.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，了解可能影响市场的因素将使投资者更加冷静，从而使他们能够做出更理性的决策，即使这意味着对他们的投资组合什么都不做。</p>
</div>

The Latest Inflation Data Will Drop on July 14. Here's Why It's a Big Deal for the Stock Market

- 6 月消费者价格指数将于 7 月 14 日发布，用于评估通胀情况。  
- 当前通胀率超过美联储 2% 目标，市场预期未来可能加息。  
- 核心 CPI 数据影响更大，若低于预期可能推动市场上涨。

最新的通胀数据将于 7 月 14 日发布。这对股市为何如此重要