<p>过去几年，对于一些世界上最知名的公司来说，经历了繁荣与萧条的交替。人工智能（AI）的出现成为了处于技术前沿公司的催化剂。</p>
<p><strong>英伟达</strong>（ NVDA 3.23%）在数据中心运行 AI 模型的图形处理单元（GPU）领域处于领先地位。<strong>亚马逊</strong>（ AMZN +0.86%）利用 AI 提高了业务效率，同时向其云基础设施服务（AWS）的客户提供 AI 模型。<strong>微软</strong>（ MSFT +1.53%）早期与 ChatGPT 的创始人 OpenAI 合作，将生成性 AI 工具整合到其庞大的业务中，同时向云客户提供 AI 工具和模型。此外，这些科技巨头在近年来借助 AI 实现了超越市场的回报。</p>
<p>然而，今年标志着一个转折点。截至目前（写作时），英伟达、亚马逊和微软的表现均落后于 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>，最近几个月估值降至至少五年来的低点。历史清楚地表明接下来会发生什么。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uLzk3MzhlNjFiMzU1YzliOWIxZWQ2MGUwOGI5ZmI2OTgwYTliYjMzNzMtMjMwMngxMzAzLmpwZz93PTIzMDImaD0xMzAzJnE9NzUmYXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uLzk3MzhlNjFiMzU1YzliOWIxZWQ2MGUwOGI5ZmI2OTgwYTliYjMzNzMtMjMwMngxMzAzLmpwZz93PTIzMDImaD0xMzAzJnE9NzUmYXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmdz0zODQw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>估值与业绩脱节</h2>
<p>尽管英伟达连续几个季度交出创纪录的业绩，但其估值仍在下滑。该股票的 市盈率（P/E） 为 31，接近自 2019 年以来的最低水平。然而，其运营和财务业绩仍在加速。</p>
<p>在其 2027 财年第一季度（截至 4 月 26 日），英伟达创下了创纪录的收入，同比增长 85%，环比增长 20%，达到 816 亿美元。这推动了调整后的每股收益（EPS）飙升 140%，达到 1.87 美元。业绩的增长得益于数据中心收入创纪录的 750 亿美元，同比增长 92%。管理层预计其增长势头将持续，预测第二季度收入同比增长 95%，达到 910 亿美元。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="英伟达股票报价" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<p>英伟达</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(-3.23%) $-6.83</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$204.14</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$5.1T 市值仅计算已上市的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或双重类别的非交易股份。隐含市值可能有所不同。</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$203.00 - $210.57</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$162.02 - $236.54</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>4.3M</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>158.9M</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>74.15%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>0.13%</p>
<p>与英伟达类似，亚马逊在发布令人印象深刻的业绩的同时，其估值仍然受到压制，今年的市盈率降至 25（尽管略微反弹至 29）。要追溯到 2008 年才能找到更低的倍数。</p>
<p>然而，亚马逊的业绩依然令人印象深刻。在第一季度，1820 亿美元的收入同比增长 17%，每股收益为 2.78 美元，增长 75%。更值得注意的是，其云业务的增长再次加速，AWS 的收入增长了 28%。</p>
<p>微软也在实现强劲增长，但这种增长并未反映在公司的当前估值中。其市盈率在上个月底降至 21，尽管略微反弹至 23。要追溯到 2017 年中期才能找到如此低的倍数。</p>
<p>但其财务业绩却讲述了不同的故事。在其 2026 财年第三季度（截至 3 月 31 日），微软的收入同比增长 18%，达到 830 亿美元，而其稀释后每股收益为 4.27 美元，增长 23%。或许更重要的是，其 Azure 云收入增长了 40%。</p>
<h2>这些行业领袖面临的挑战是什么？</h2>
<p>英伟达、亚马逊和微软都面临相同的逆风。投资者担心 AI 的采用速度会放缓，盈利的列车将会脱轨。虽然这些担忧确实合理且值得关注，但回顾历史可以提供一些启示。</p>
<p></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率 数据由 YCharts 提供</p>
<p>在每次这些股票的市盈率压缩到如此程度时，随后都伴随着其倍数的强劲反弹，尤其是在公司展示出财务业绩的韧性之后。这很容易理解。市场情绪的保质期有限，投资者最终会依赖销售和利润增长作为股票走势的主要衡量标准。</p>
<p>总结：英伟达、亚马逊和微软目前的市盈率分别为 31 倍、29 倍和 23 倍，均远低于其历史平均水平。这为精明的投资者提供了在市场恢复理智之前以折扣价购买股票的机会。</p>

微软

英伟达

亚马逊

<p>尽管受到人工智能推动的财务增长创下纪录，英伟达、亚马逊和微软的股票仍以五年来的低市盈率交易。虽然投资者担心人工智能的采用速度放缓，但历史数据表明这些估值与业绩脱节。文章认为，强劲的盈利韧性可能会引发股票倍数的强劲反弹，为投资者提供买入机会</p>

<p>The past few years have been boom-or-bust for some of the world's most recognizable names. The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) was a catalyst for companies at the forefront of the technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去几年，对于一些世界上最知名的公司来说，经历了繁荣与萧条的交替。人工智能（AI）的出现成为了处于技术前沿公司的催化剂。</p>
</div><p><strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA 3.23%) leads the field for the graphics processing units (GPUs) that run AI models in data centers. <strong>Amazon</strong>( AMZN +0.86%) used AI to increase efficiency across its business, while also offering AI models to customers of Amazon Web Services (AWS), its cloud infrastructure service. <strong>Microsoft</strong>( MSFT +1.53%) partnered with ChatGPT creator OpenAI early on, integrating generative AI tools across its vast business, while also offering AI tools and models to cloud customers. Moreover, these tech titans have ridden AI to market-beating returns in recent years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>（ NVDA 3.23%）在数据中心运行 AI 模型的图形处理单元（GPU）领域处于领先地位。<strong>亚马逊</strong>（ AMZN +0.86%）利用 AI 提高了业务效率，同时向其云基础设施服务（AWS）的客户提供 AI 模型。<strong>微软</strong>（ MSFT +1.53%）早期与 ChatGPT 的创始人 OpenAI 合作，将生成性 AI 工具整合到其庞大的业务中，同时向云客户提供 AI 工具和模型。此外，这些科技巨头在近年来借助 AI 实现了超越市场的回报。</p>
</div><p>However, this year has marked a turning point. Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft are each trailing the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> thus far in 2026 (as of this writing), with valuations falling to <em>at least</em> five-year lows in recent months. History is crystal clear about what happens next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，今年标志着一个转折点。截至目前（写作时），英伟达、亚马逊和微软的表现均落后于 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>，最近几个月估值降至至少五年来的低点。历史清楚地表明接下来会发生什么。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uLzk3MzhlNjFiMzU1YzliOWIxZWQ2MGUwOGI5ZmI2OTgwYTliYjMzNzMtMjMwMngxMzAzLmpwZz93PTIzMDImaD0xMzAzJnE9NzUmYXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmdz0zODQw" alt="A businessperson standing near a large display with various charts and graphs." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.content.foolcdn.com%2Fimages%2F1umn9qeh%2Fproduction%2F9738e61b355c9b9b1ed60e08b9fb6980a9bb3373-2302x1303.jpg%3Fw%3D2302%26h%3D1303%26q%3D75%26auto%3Dformat&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Valuations disconnected from results</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>估值与业绩脱节</h2>
</div><p>Despite delivering quarter after quarter of record-breaking results, Nvidia's valuation continues to tumble. The stock has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 31, near its lowest level since 2019. Yet its operating and financial results continue to accelerate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管英伟达连续几个季度交出创纪录的业绩，但其估值仍在下滑。该股票的 市盈率（P/E） 为 31，接近自 2019 年以来的最低水平。然而，其运营和财务业绩仍在加速。</p>
</div><p>For its fiscal 2027 first quarter (ended April 26), Nvidia generated record revenue, up 85% year over year and 20% quarter over quarter to $81.6 billion. This drove adjusted earnings per share (EPS) that soared 140% to $1.87. The results were driven by record data center revenue of $75 billion, up 92%. Management expects its growth spurt to continue, forecasting year-over-year revenue growth of 95% to $91 billion in Q2.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其 2027 财年第一季度（截至 4 月 26 日），英伟达创下了创纪录的收入，同比增长 85%，环比增长 20%，达到 816 亿美元。这推动了调整后的每股收益（EPS）飙升 140%，达到 1.87 美元。业绩的增长得益于数据中心收入创纪录的 750 亿美元，同比增长 92%。管理层预计其增长势头将持续，预测第二季度收入同比增长 95%，达到 910 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Nvidia Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FNVDA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(-3.23%) $-6.83</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-3.23%) $-6.83</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$204.14</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$204.14</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$5.1TMarket cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$5.1T 市值仅计算已上市的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或双重类别的非交易股份。隐含市值可能有所不同。</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$203.00 - $210.57</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$203.00 - $210.57</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$162.02 - $236.54</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$162.02 - $236.54</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>4.3M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4.3M</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>158.9M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>158.9M</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>74.15%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>74.15%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.13%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.13%</p>
</div><p>Like Nvidia, Amazon is posting impressive numbers while its valuation remains compressed, with its P/E ratio falling to 25 this year (though it's rebounded slightly to 29). You'd have to go back to 2008 to find a lower multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与英伟达类似，亚马逊在发布令人印象深刻的业绩的同时，其估值仍然受到压制，今年的市盈率降至 25（尽管略微反弹至 29）。要追溯到 2008 年才能找到更低的倍数。</p>
</div><p>Yet Amazon’s results continue to impress. In Q1, revenue of $182 billion rose 17% year over year, while EPS of $2.78 jumped 75%. Perhaps more telling is the reacceleration of its cloud growth, as AWS revenue rose 28%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，亚马逊的业绩依然令人印象深刻。在第一季度，1820 亿美元的收入同比增长 17%，每股收益为 2.78 美元，增长 75%。更值得注意的是，其云业务的增长再次加速，AWS 的收入增长了 28%。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft has also been generating strong growth, yet that growth isn't reflected in the company's current valuation. Its P/E ratio had fallen to 21 late last month, though it has rebounded slightly to 23. You'd have to go back to mid-2017 to find a multiple that low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软也在实现强劲增长，但这种增长并未反映在公司的当前估值中。其市盈率在上个月底降至 21，尽管略微反弹至 23。要追溯到 2017 年中期才能找到如此低的倍数。</p>
</div><p>But its financial results tell a different story. In its fiscal 2026 third quarter (ended March 31), Microsoft generated revenue that climbed 18% year over year to $83 billion, while its diluted EPS of $4.27 grew 23%. Perhaps more importantly, its Azure Cloud revenue jumped 40%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但其财务业绩却讲述了不同的故事。在其 2026 财年第三季度（截至 3 月 31 日），微软的收入同比增长 18%，达到 830 亿美元，而其稀释后每股收益为 4.27 美元，增长 23%。或许更重要的是，其 Azure 云收入增长了 40%。</p>
</div><h2>What's weighing on these industry leaders?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这些行业领袖面临的挑战是什么？</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft are all facing the same headwinds. Investors are worried that AI adoption will slow and the gravy train will derail. While those concerns are certainly justified and bear watching, a look back can be instructional.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达、亚马逊和微软都面临相同的逆风。投资者担心 AI 的采用速度会放缓，盈利的列车将会脱轨。虽然这些担忧确实合理且值得关注，但回顾历史可以提供一些启示。</p>
</div><p></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p></p>
</div><p>NVDA PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率 数据由 YCharts 提供</p>
</div><p>In every prior instance in which these stocks' P/E ratios were compressed to this degree, each was followed by an equally robust rebound of its multiple after the companies demonstrated the resilience of their financial results. It's easy to understand why. Sentiment has a limited shelf life, and investors will ultimately rely on sales and profit growth as the primary gauges of a stock's trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在每次这些股票的市盈率压缩到如此程度时，随后都伴随着其倍数的强劲反弹，尤其是在公司展示出财务业绩的韧性之后。这很容易理解。市场情绪的保质期有限，投资者最终会依赖销售和利润增长作为股票走势的主要衡量标准。</p>
</div><p>To recap: Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft are currently selling for 31 times, 29 times, and 23 times earnings, respectively -- well below their historical averages. This gives savvy investors the opportunity to pick up shares at a discount before the market comes to its senses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总结：英伟达、亚马逊和微软目前的市盈率分别为 31 倍、29 倍和 23 倍，均远低于其历史平均水平。这为精明的投资者提供了在市场恢复理智之前以折扣价购买股票的机会。</p>
</div>

Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft Stocks Just Did Something for the First Time in at Least 5 Years. Here's What History Says Will Happen Next

- Nvidia、亚马逊与微软在 2026 年面临市值回落，P/E 比率降至五年低点。  
- 尽管业绩强劲，投资者担忧 AI 采用放缓，导致这些科技股估值承压。  
- 历史数据显示，P/E 比率极低时通常预示未来反弹机会，值得关注。

Motley Fool

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

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2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

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微软每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

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微软每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

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亚马逊每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

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