<p>美國聯邦政府計劃裁減就業崗位，可能出現衰退的警告信號已經顯現，而關税可能引發貿易戰。亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行對第一季度實際國內生產總值（GDP）增長的預測，從 2 月底預測的超過 2% 的增長，已降至截至 3 月 6 日的 2.4% 的下降。</p>
<p>儘管衰退的陰影通常對市場不利，但在這種環境下，有一隻高收益的分紅股票可能表現良好：<strong>AGNC Investment</strong>(AGNC -0.50%)。</p>
<h2>動盪市場中的高收益</h2>
<p>AGNC 是一家抵押貸款房地產投資信託基金（REIT），是一種擁有抵押貸款支持證券（MBS）投資組合的投資公司。它通過其投資組合中持有的抵押貸款收益與其融資成本（為購買 MBS 而承擔的短期債務）之間的差額來產生收入。例如，如果融資成本為 4%，而它購買的抵押貸款支持證券的收益率為 7%，那麼它將從投資中獲得 3% 的收益差。</p>
<p>3% 的回報並不令人興奮，因此抵押貸款 REIT 通常使用槓桿或借貸來增強其回報。它們通常還會部署對沖，以幫助將短期利率鎖定更長時間，以更好地匹配其投資組合的到期時間。這一點很重要，因為它可以降低融資成本上升導致收益差縮小的風險，甚至融資成本超過 MBS 收益率的風險。就在不久前，30 年期抵押貸款的平均收益率還不到 4%。如今，按擔保隔夜融資利率（SOFR）衡量的短期利率已超過 4%。</p>
<p>那麼，為什麼 AGNC 在衰退中可能表現良好呢？有幾個原因。</p>
<p>首先，抵押貸款 REIT 幾乎完全投資於由政府或政府贊助機構支持的 MBS。因此，它幾乎沒有信用風險，因為基礎抵押貸款基本上得到了政府的支持。截至 2024 年底，AGNC 的投資組合中 98.6% 為機構支持的 MBS，其中 96% 為 30 年期固定利率的機構支持抵押貸款。</p>
<p>衰退也可能導致美聯儲加快降息步伐。美聯儲去年 9 月開始降息，但由於經濟強勁，今年暫停了降息。隨着經濟明顯放緩，快速降息似乎在所難免。</p>
<p>AGNC 可能會從降低利率中受益，主要有兩個方面。首先，通過降低短期利率，它可以降低融資成本並擴大收益差。AGNC 的平均淨利差在最近幾個季度一直在下降，從 2024 年第一季度的 2.98% 降至第四季度的 1.91%。這在很大程度上是由於對沖收入減少。</p>
<p>然而，這部分源於 AGNC 管理層更傾向於使用基於國債的對沖，這在其淨利差或淨收益中並未體現。截至 2024 年第四季度，其對沖中有 33% 是基於國債的，而按美元久期計算（因為這些是較長期的對沖），佔其對沖投資組合的 53%。大約 70% 到 80% 的對沖通常是利率互換，用於幫助穩定利率。最近，基於國債的對沖表現更好，但 AGNC 會在互換利差開始穩定時更多地轉向互換。</p>
<p>不過，主要觀點是，較低的短期利率應有助於改善融資成本。</p>
<p>此外，任何長期利率的降低都應有助於 AGNC 投資組合的價值。由於 MBS 是一種固定收益工具，類似於債券，其當前價值受利率影響，或者在 MBS 的具體情況下，受抵押貸款利率影響。如果抵押貸款利率下降，AGNC 投資組合的價值（以其有形賬面價值（TBV）表示）應會上升。抵押貸款 REIT 通常按其 TBV 的倍數進行估值，因此每股 TBV 的增加應有助於提升其股價。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEwNzMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTEyODQ5MjA5OC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEwNzMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTEyODQ5MjA5OC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>AGNC 值得購買嗎？</h2>
<p>AGNC 每月支付 0.12 美元的分紅，收益率超過 14%。這家抵押貸款 REIT 已經支付當前的分紅近 60 個月，管理層對其能夠繼續維持當前分紅充滿信心。這得益於 AGNC 在當前環境下預計的 17% 到 18.5% 的回報。</p>
<p>總體而言，AGNC 是一隻穩健的高收益股票，具有適度的價格上漲潛力，即使在衰退中也應表現良好。</p>

美國資本代理公司

<p>AGNC Investment 是一家抵押貸款房地產投資信託（REIT），由於其專注於政府支持的抵押貸款證券，可能在經濟衰退期間蓬勃發展，從而降低信用風險。隨着美聯儲可能會降低利率，AGNC 可能會受益於融資成本的降低和投資組合價值的增加。該公司提供每月 0.12 美元的股息，收益率超過 14%，並且在近五年內保持了這一分紅水平。AGNC 預計的回報率為 17% 至 18.5%，這表明在當前經濟環境下，它是一個強勁的投資選擇</p>

<p>There are warning signs of a possible recession as the U.S. federal government looks to slash jobs, while tariffs could touch off a trade war. The Atlanta Federal Reserve's estimate for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the first quarter has gone from predicting growth of more than 2% in late February to a 2.4% decline as of its last estimate on March 6.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國聯邦政府計劃裁減就業崗位，可能出現衰退的警告信號已經顯現，而關税可能引發貿易戰。亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行對第一季度實際國內生產總值（GDP）增長的預測，從 2 月底預測的超過 2% 的增長，已降至截至 3 月 6 日的 2.4% 的下降。</p>
</div><p>While the specter of a recession is generally not good for the market, there is one high-yielding dividend stock that could perform well in this environment: <strong>AGNC Investment</strong>(AGNC -0.50%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管衰退的陰影通常對市場不利，但在這種環境下，有一隻高收益的分紅股票可能表現良好：<strong>AGNC Investment</strong>(AGNC -0.50%)。</p>
</div><h2>A high yield in a tumultuous market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>動盪市場中的高收益</h2>
</div><p>AGNC is a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT), which is an investment company that owns a portfolio of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). It generates income through the spread between the yield of the mortgages it holds in its portfolio and its funding costs (the short-term debt it takes on to buy the MBS). For example, if funding costs were 4% and it bought a mortgage-backed security with a 7% yield, it would earn a 3% spread on its investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 是一家抵押貸款房地產投資信託基金（REIT），是一種擁有抵押貸款支持證券（MBS）投資組合的投資公司。它通過其投資組合中持有的抵押貸款收益與其融資成本（為購買 MBS 而承擔的短期債務）之間的差額來產生收入。例如，如果融資成本為 4%，而它購買的抵押貸款支持證券的收益率為 7%，那麼它將從投資中獲得 3% 的收益差。</p>
</div><p>A 3% return is not that exciting, so mortgage REITs typically use leverage, or borrowing, to bolster their returns. They also generally deploy hedges to help lock in their short-term rates for a longer period to better match the maturity duration of their portfolios. This is important because it mitigates the risk of rising funding costs narrowing the spread, or even funding costs becoming higher than the yield on the MBS. It wasn't long ago that average yields on 30-year mortgages were less than 4%. Today, short-term rates as measured by the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) are above 4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>3% 的回報並不令人興奮，因此抵押貸款 REIT 通常使用槓桿或借貸來增強其回報。它們通常還會部署對沖，以幫助將短期利率鎖定更長時間，以更好地匹配其投資組合的到期時間。這一點很重要，因為它可以降低融資成本上升導致收益差縮小的風險，甚至融資成本超過 MBS 收益率的風險。就在不久前，30 年期抵押貸款的平均收益率還不到 4%。如今，按擔保隔夜融資利率（SOFR）衡量的短期利率已超過 4%。</p>
</div><p>So why could AGNC perform well in a recession? There are a couple of reasons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，為什麼 AGNC 在衰退中可能表現良好呢？有幾個原因。</p>
</div><p>The first is that the mortgage REIT invests almost exclusively in MBS that are backed by government or government-sponsored agencies. As such, it carries virtually no credit risk, as the underlying mortgages are essentially backstopped by the government. At the end of 2024, 98.6% of AGNC's portfolio was in agency-backed MBS, with 96% in 30-year fixed agency-backed mortgages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，抵押貸款 REIT 幾乎完全投資於由政府或政府贊助機構支持的 MBS。因此，它幾乎沒有信用風險，因為基礎抵押貸款基本上得到了政府的支持。截至 2024 年底，AGNC 的投資組合中 98.6% 為機構支持的 MBS，其中 96% 為 30 年期固定利率的機構支持抵押貸款。</p>
</div><p>A recession would also likely lead to the Federal Reserve picking up its pace of interest rate cuts. The Fed began lowering rates last September, but paused this year due to the strength of the economy. With the economy now clearly weakening, faster rate cuts appear to be in the cards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>衰退也可能導致美聯儲加快降息步伐。美聯儲去年 9 月開始降息，但由於經濟強勁，今年暫停了降息。隨着經濟明顯放緩，快速降息似乎在所難免。</p>
</div><p>AGNC could benefit in two main ways from lower rates. The first is that by lowering short-term rates, it could reduce funding costs and widen spreads. AGNC's average net interest spread has been trending lower in recent quarters, going from 2.98% in the first quarter of 2024 to 1.91% in the fourth. This is largely due to less hedging income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 可能會從降低利率中受益，主要有兩個方面。首先，通過降低短期利率，它可以降低融資成本並擴大收益差。AGNC 的平均淨利差在最近幾個季度一直在下降，從 2024 年第一季度的 2.98% 降至第四季度的 1.91%。這在很大程度上是由於對沖收入減少。</p>
</div><p>However, some of this stems from AGNC management turning more toward Treasury-based hedges, which are not reported in its net interest spread or net spread income. At the end of Q4 2024, 33% of its hedges were Treasury-based, while on a dollar duration basis (since these are longer hedges), it represented 53% of its hedging portfolio. About 70% to 80% of its hedges are typically interest rate swaps, which are used to help stabilize interest rates. Treasury-based hedges have been the better value recently, but AGNC would look to move back more toward swaps when swap spreads begin to stabilize.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這部分源於 AGNC 管理層更傾向於使用基於國債的對沖，這在其淨利差或淨收益中並未體現。截至 2024 年第四季度，其對沖中有 33% 是基於國債的，而按美元久期計算（因為這些是較長期的對沖），佔其對沖投資組合的 53%。大約 70% 到 80% 的對沖通常是利率互換，用於幫助穩定利率。最近，基於國債的對沖表現更好，但 AGNC 會在互換利差開始穩定時更多地轉向互換。</p>
</div><p>The main point, though, is that lower short-term rates should help improve funding costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，主要觀點是，較低的短期利率應有助於改善融資成本。</p>
</div><p>In addition, any reduction in longer-term interest rates should help the value of AGNC's portfolio. Since MBS are a fixed-income instrument like bonds, their current values are affected by interest rates, or in the case of MBS specifically, mortgage rates. If mortgage rates fall, the value of AGNC's portfolio, as represented by its tangible book value (TBV), should rise. Mortgage REITs are typically valued at a multiple of their TBV, so an increasing TBV per share should help boost its stock price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，任何長期利率的降低都應有助於 AGNC 投資組合的價值。由於 MBS 是一種固定收益工具，類似於債券，其當前價值受利率影響，或者在 MBS 的具體情況下，受抵押貸款利率影響。如果抵押貸款利率下降，AGNC 投資組合的價值（以其有形賬面價值（TBV）表示）應會上升。抵押貸款 REIT 通常按其 TBV 的倍數進行估值，因此每股 TBV 的增加應有助於提升其股價。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEwNzMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTEyODQ5MjA5OC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F811073%2Fgettyimages-1128492098.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is AGNC a buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AGNC 值得購買嗎？</h2>
</div><p>AGNC pays a $0.12 monthly dividend, which equates to a robust yield of more than 14%. The mortgage REIT has paid out its current dividend for nearly 60 months, and management is confident that it can continue to maintain its current dividend. This is backed by AGNC's projected returns of 17% to 18.5% in this current environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 每月支付 0.12 美元的分紅，收益率超過 14%。這家抵押貸款 REIT 已經支付當前的分紅近 60 個月，管理層對其能夠繼續維持當前分紅充滿信心。這得益於 AGNC 在當前環境下預計的 17% 到 18.5% 的回報。</p>
</div><p>Overall, AGNC is a solid high-yield stock with some moderate potential price upside that should perform well in the current environment, even if we head to a recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總體而言，AGNC 是一隻穩健的高收益股票，具有適度的價格上漲潛力，即使在衰退中也應表現良好。</p>
</div>

Why This 14%-Yielding Dividend Stock May Perform Well in a Recession

- 美國可能面臨衰退，GDP 增長預期從 2% 轉為下降 2.4%。  
- AGNC 投資於政府支持的抵押貸款證券，幾乎無信用風險。  
- AGNC 的股息收益率超過 14%，預計在衰退中表現良好。  

為什麼這個收益率為 14% 的股息股票在經濟衰退中可能表現出色