<p>當美聯儲在 2022 年和 2023 年提高基準利率時，許多收入投資者拋售了他們的股息股票，轉而購買收益更高的無風險定期存款和國債。然而，美聯儲在 2024 年降低了三次利率，最近執行了 2025 年的第一次降息，並計劃在年底前至少再降息兩次。</p>
<p>隨着利率的下降，定期存款和國債將失去吸引力，收入投資者將再次轉向高收益股息股票。其中一隻股票可能是 <strong>AGNC</strong>(AGNC 0.87%)，其前瞻性收益率高達 14.75%，但仍低於華爾街的最高目標價 10.50 美元。讓我們看看現在是否值得購買。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUxMTUvcGVyc29uLXBvaW50aW5nLXRvLWEtbW9kZWwtaG9tZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUxMTUvcGVyc29uLXBvaW50aW5nLXRvLWEtbW9kZWwtaG9tZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>AGNC 對利率波動敏感</h2>
<p>AGNC 是一家抵押貸款房地產投資信託基金（mREIT）。與傳統的房地產投資信託基金不同，後者購買物業並出租以賺取收入，mREIT 僅發放自己的抵押貸款併購買其他抵押貸款支持證券（MBS）以產生利息收入。</p>
<p>這種策略看似風險較大，但 AGNC 將其 823 億美元投資組合的 89.1% 分配給由房利美、房地美或政府國民抵押貸款協會支持的機構 MBS 資產。這種政府支持應能保護其免受另一次住房危機或信貸緊縮的影響。</p>
<p>傳統的房地產投資信託基金通常在低利率使得購買更多物業變得更便宜時蓬勃發展。然而，mREIT 需要利率保持在 “金髮女孩區間” 才能產生穩定的利潤。如果利率過高，市場對新抵押貸款的需求會枯竭，AGNC 將被迫從其舊的 MBS 中賺取較低的收益。如果利率過低，它的利息收入會減少，現有的抵押貸款將以更低的利率再融資。</p>
<p>為了為未來的 MBS 購買產生現金，AGNC 不斷將自己的 MBS 出售給對手銀行（並與其達成協議，在未來某個日期以設定價格加利息回購這些證券）。這些對手方將 MBS 作為現金支付的抵押品，而這些證券的利息仍然流回 AGNC。</p>
<p>在這種所謂的 “回購交易” 中，AGNC 的利潤或損失與其支付給對手方的貸款利息與其在 MBS 上獲得的收益之間的差額掛鈎。如果短期利率較高，它需要向對手方支付更高的利息，但可能無法從 MBS（其到期日較長）中獲得足夠的利息來覆蓋這些支付。如果短期利率較低，它將在這兩種收益之間有更多的緩衝空間。</p>
<h2>為什麼 AGNC 的股票在過去一年中下跌？</h2>
<p>根據這些事實，美聯儲的降息應該會提升 AGNC 的利潤。但在過去 12 個月中，其股票仍然下跌了 6%，而 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 指數上漲了 15%。</p>
<p>AGNC 通過其每股 “淨利差和美元滾動收入” 來衡量其利潤增長。淨利差是其從上述回購交易中獲得的利潤，而美元滾動收入來自購買 TBA 合約（在未來某個日期購買一組 MBS 的協議）並在結算日期之前出售它們以購買額外的 TBA 合約。在這些 “滾動” 交易中，AGNC 不斷出售合約，但從未實際購買基礎的 MBS。</p>
<p>衡量 AGNC 價值的另一種方式是通過其 “每股有形淨資產”，即將其資產總值除以其流通股數。理論上，較低的利率應該會提升 AGNC 的淨利差和美元滾動收入，同時增加其每股有形淨資產。但在過去一年中發生的情況是：</p>
<p>| 指標 | 2024 年第二季度 | 2024 年第三季度 | 2024 年第四季度 | 2025 年第一季度 | 2025 年第二季度 |
| 每股淨利差和美元滾動收入 | $0.53 | $0.43 | $0.37 | $0.44 | $0.38 |
| 每股有形淨資產 | $8.40 | $8.82 | $8.41 | $8.25 | $7.81 |</p>
<p>數據來源：AGNC。</p>
<p>儘管美聯儲的降息降低了其 MBS 收益率，但並沒有以相同的速度降低其回購貸款的借款成本。因此，AGNC 的利潤下降，因為它繼續以較高的利率借款以購買收益較低的 MBS。這些降息也促使更多房主以較低的利率再融資他們的抵押貸款。</p>
<p>這就是為什麼分析師預計 AGNC 的每股收益（EPS）將在 2025 年下降 15% 至 1.59 美元——這仍然足以覆蓋其前瞻性股息率 1.44 美元。對於 2026 年，分析師預計其 EPS 將最終上升 2% 至 1.62 美元，因為其利率趨於穩定。AGNC 與其他 REIT 一樣，必須將至少 90% 的税前收入作為股息支付，以享受較低的税率。</p>
<h2>你今天應該購買 AGNC 的股票嗎？</h2>
<p>即使 AGNC 的股票上漲至 10.50 美元，按明年的收益計算，其市盈率仍為 6.5 倍，看起來仍然便宜。但如果美聯儲不落實其降息計劃，其利率可能會保持波動，從而吞噬其利潤。因此，儘管 AGNC 的股票可能已經觸底，但我仍然會避免它，選擇那些商業模式更簡單的傳統 REIT。</p>

美國資本代理公司

<p>AGNC 股票目前交易價格低於 10.50 美元的目標價，提供 14.75% 的前瞻收益率。儘管近期美聯儲降息，AGNC 的股票在過去一年中下跌了 6%。公司的利潤受到利率波動的影響，淨利差和每股美元滾動收入呈下降趨勢。分析師預測 2025 年每股收益將下降 15%，儘管這仍將覆蓋其股息。隨着利率的下降，投資者正在考慮 AGNC，可能會重新轉向高收益股息股票</p>

<p>When the Federal Reserve hiked its benchmark rates in 2022 and 2023, many income investors dumped their dividend stocks to buy risk-free CDs and T-bills with higher yields. However, the Fed reduced rates three times in 2024, recently executed its first rate cut of 2025, and has penciled in at least two more rate cuts by the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當美聯儲在 2022 年和 2023 年提高基準利率時，許多收入投資者拋售了他們的股息股票，轉而購買收益更高的無風險定期存款和國債。然而，美聯儲在 2024 年降低了三次利率，最近執行了 2025 年的第一次降息，並計劃在年底前至少再降息兩次。</p>
</div><p>As interest rates decline, CDs and T-bills will lose their luster as income investors pivot toward high-yield dividend stocks again. One of those stocks might be <strong>AGNC</strong>(AGNC 0.87%), which pays a whopping forward yield of 14.75% but still trades below Wall Street's top price target of $10.50 per share. Let's see if it's worth buying right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着利率的下降，定期存款和國債將失去吸引力，收入投資者將再次轉向高收益股息股票。其中一隻股票可能是 <strong>AGNC</strong>(AGNC 0.87%)，其前瞻性收益率高達 14.75%，但仍低於華爾街的最高目標價 10.50 美元。讓我們看看現在是否值得購買。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzUxMTUvcGVyc29uLXBvaW50aW5nLXRvLWEtbW9kZWwtaG9tZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835115%2Fperson-pointing-to-a-model-home.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>AGNC is sensitive to interest rate swings</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AGNC 對利率波動敏感</h2>
</div><p>AGNC is a mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT). Unlike traditional REITs, which purchase properties and rent them out to earn income, mREITs only originate their own mortgages and buy other mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to generate interest income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 是一家抵押貸款房地產投資信託基金（mREIT）。與傳統的房地產投資信託基金不同，後者購買物業並出租以賺取收入，mREIT 僅發放自己的抵押貸款併購買其他抵押貸款支持證券（MBS）以產生利息收入。</p>
</div><p>That strategy might seem risky, but AGNC allocates 89.1% of its $82.3 billion portfolio to Agency MBS assets that are backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or Ginnie Mae. That government support should protect it from another housing crisis or credit crunch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種策略看似風險較大，但 AGNC 將其 823 億美元投資組合的 89.1% 分配給由房利美、房地美或政府國民抵押貸款協會支持的機構 MBS 資產。這種政府支持應能保護其免受另一次住房危機或信貸緊縮的影響。</p>
</div><p>Traditional REITs generally flourish when low interest rates make it cheaper to buy more properties. However, mREITs need interest rates to stay in a &#34;Goldilocks zone&#34; to generate consistent profits. If interest rates are too high, the market's demand for fresh mortgages dries up and AGNC gets stuck earning lower yields from its older MBS. If the rates are too low, it earns less interest income and its existing mortgages will be refinanced at lower rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>傳統的房地產投資信託基金通常在低利率使得購買更多物業變得更便宜時蓬勃發展。然而，mREIT 需要利率保持在 “金髮女孩區間” 才能產生穩定的利潤。如果利率過高，市場對新抵押貸款的需求會枯竭，AGNC 將被迫從其舊的 MBS 中賺取較低的收益。如果利率過低，它的利息收入會減少，現有的抵押貸款將以更低的利率再融資。</p>
</div><p>To generate cash for its future MBS purchases, AGNC constantly sells its own MBS to counterparty banks (with an agreement to buy those securities back at a set price plus interest at a future date). Those counterparties hold the MBS as collateral for the cash payment, while the interest from those securities still flows back to AGNC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了為未來的 MBS 購買產生現金，AGNC 不斷將自己的 MBS 出售給對手銀行（並與其達成協議，在未來某個日期以設定價格加利息回購這些證券）。這些對手方將 MBS 作為現金支付的抵押品，而這些證券的利息仍然流回 AGNC。</p>
</div><p>In this so-called &#34;repo transaction,&#34; AGNC's profit or loss is pinned to the spread between the interest it pays to the counterparty for the loan and the yield it earns on its MBS. If the short-term rates are high, it needs to pay the counterparty higher interest payments -- but it might not earn enough interest from the MBS (which have longer-term maturity dates) to cover those payments. If the short-term rates are lower, it will have more breathing room between those two yields.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種所謂的 “回購交易” 中，AGNC 的利潤或損失與其支付給對手方的貸款利息與其在 MBS 上獲得的收益之間的差額掛鈎。如果短期利率較高，它需要向對手方支付更高的利息，但可能無法從 MBS（其到期日較長）中獲得足夠的利息來覆蓋這些支付。如果短期利率較低，它將在這兩種收益之間有更多的緩衝空間。</p>
</div><h2>Why did AGNC's stock decline over the past year?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼 AGNC 的股票在過去一年中下跌？</h2>
</div><p>Based on those facts, the Fed's interest rate cuts should have boosted AGNC's profits. But its stock still dropped 6% over the past 12 months as the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> advanced 15%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據這些事實，美聯儲的降息應該會提升 AGNC 的利潤。但在過去 12 個月中，其股票仍然下跌了 6%，而 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 指數上漲了 15%。</p>
</div><p>AGNC gauges its profit growth through its &#34;net spread and dollar roll income&#34; per share. The net spread is the profit it books from its aforementioned repo transactions, while its dollar roll income comes from buying TBA contracts (agreements to buy a pool of MBS at a future date) and selling them before the settlement date to buy additional TBA contracts. In these &#34;rolling&#34; transactions, AGNC constantly sells the contracts but never actually buys the underlying MBS.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC 通過其每股 “淨利差和美元滾動收入” 來衡量其利潤增長。淨利差是其從上述回購交易中獲得的利潤，而美元滾動收入來自購買 TBA 合約（在未來某個日期購買一組 MBS 的協議）並在結算日期之前出售它們以購買額外的 TBA 合約。在這些 “滾動” 交易中，AGNC 不斷出售合約，但從未實際購買基礎的 MBS。</p>
</div><p>The other way to measure AGNC's value is through its &#34;tangible net book value per share,&#34; which divides the total value of its assets by its outstanding shares. In theory, lower interest rates should have boosted AGNC's net spread and dollar roll income while increasing its tangible net book value per share. But here's what happened over the past year:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>衡量 AGNC 價值的另一種方式是通過其 “每股有形淨資產”，即將其資產總值除以其流通股數。理論上，較低的利率應該會提升 AGNC 的淨利差和美元滾動收入，同時增加其每股有形淨資產。但在過去一年中發生的情況是：</p>
</div><p>| Metric | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 |
| Net spread and dollar roll income per share | $0.53 | $0.43 | $0.37 | $0.44 | $0.38 |
| Tangible net book value per share | $8.40 | $8.82 | $8.41 | $8.25 | $7.81 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>| 指標 | 2024 年第二季度 | 2024 年第三季度 | 2024 年第四季度 | 2025 年第一季度 | 2025 年第二季度 |
| 每股淨利差和美元滾動收入 | $0.53 | $0.43 | $0.37 | $0.44 | $0.38 |
| 每股有形淨資產 | $8.40 | $8.82 | $8.41 | $8.25 | $7.81 |</p>
</div><p>Data source: AGNC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：AGNC。</p>
</div><p>Even though the Fed's rate cuts reduced its MBS yields, they didn't reduce the borrowing costs for its repo loans at the same rate. As a result, AGNC's profits fell as it continued to take out loans at higher rates to purchase lower-yielding MBS. Those rate cuts also drove more homeowners to refinance their mortgages at lower rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管美聯儲的降息降低了其 MBS 收益率，但並沒有以相同的速度降低其回購貸款的借款成本。因此，AGNC 的利潤下降，因為它繼續以較高的利率借款以購買收益較低的 MBS。這些降息也促使更多房主以較低的利率再融資他們的抵押貸款。</p>
</div><p>That's why analysts expect AGNC's earnings per share (EPS) to drop 15% to $1.59 in 2025 -- which should still easily cover its forward dividend rate of $1.44. For 2026, analysts expect its EPS to finally rise 2% to $1.62 as its interest rates stabilize. AGNC, like other REITs, must pay out at least 90% of its pre-tax income as dividends for a lower tax rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是為什麼分析師預計 AGNC 的每股收益（EPS）將在 2025 年下降 15% 至 1.59 美元——這仍然足以覆蓋其前瞻性股息率 1.44 美元。對於 2026 年，分析師預計其 EPS 將最終上升 2% 至 1.62 美元，因為其利率趨於穩定。AGNC 與其他 REIT 一樣，必須將至少 90% 的税前收入作為股息支付，以享受較低的税率。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy AGNC's stock today?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你今天應該購買 AGNC 的股票嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Even if AGNC's stock rises to $10.50, it would still look cheap at 6.5 times next year's earnings. But if the Fed doesn't follow through on its rate cut plans, its interest rates could remain volatile and gobble up its profits. So while AGNC's stock might be bottoming out, I'd still avoid it and stick with traditional REITs with simpler business models.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使 AGNC 的股票上漲至 10.50 美元，按明年的收益計算，其市盈率仍為 6.5 倍，看起來仍然便宜。但如果美聯儲不落實其降息計劃，其利率可能會保持波動，從而吞噬其利潤。因此，儘管 AGNC 的股票可能已經觸底，但我仍然會避免它，選擇那些商業模式更簡單的傳統 REIT。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy AGNC Stock While It's Below a $10.50 Price Target?

- 美聯儲在 2024 年和 2025 年降息，導致收入投資者轉向高收益股。  
- AGNC 股票因利率波動和盈利下滑，過去一年下跌 6%。  
- 分析師預計 2025 年 AGNC 每股收益將下降 15%，但仍可覆蓋股息。  

當 AGNC 股票低於 10.50 美元的目標價時，你是否應該購買？