<p>經典的 “買入恐懼” 策略是有代價的。</p>
<p>從技術上看，市場仍處於猶豫狀態，因為比特幣 [BTC] 已經花費超過三天的時間試圖鞏固其 $90,000 的支撐位。隨着 FOMC 的臨近，買盤壓力進一步加大。</p>
<p>在這種波動中，散户投資者自然被迫退居一旁。</p>
<p>因此，現在的重擔落在了大户身上，以增強市場信心。真正的問題是，BTC 的 “價值儲存” 敍述是否依然堅如磐石，還是在近期市場的恐慌中動搖了。</p>
<h2><strong>比特幣脆弱的市場定位面臨宏觀風險</strong></h2>
<p>BTC 的市場定位仍然顯得過於脆弱。</p>
<p>Glassnode 的數據正好説明了這一點。他們的風險指標顯示，自 11 月中旬以來，BTC 已經跌破了 0.75 MVRV 分位，基本上表明大約 25% 的供應現在處於未實現損失狀態。</p>
<p>當比特幣處於這個區域時，拋售風險開始上升。即使是小的宏觀衝擊也足以迫使這些 HODLers 實現損失。現在，隨着 FOMC 會議的臨近，這種敏感性被放大了。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Glassnode</p>
<p>為了使市場穩定，比特幣需要重新攀升至 0.75 分位，約為 $95,800。之後，下一個大障礙是接近 $106,200 的 0.85 分位。這是一個將標誌真正恢復動能的水平。</p>
<p>在這些水平上，恐懼可能開始轉變為更廣泛投資者羣體的 FOMO。在此之前，這一指標清晰地反映了當前投資者心理的狀態：反應性強，並對宏觀噪音高度敏感。</p>
<p>這使得即將到來的 FOMC 會議更加重要。</p>
<p>市場預計降息的概率約為 90%，情緒嚴重偏向看漲。這也意味着 “買入恐懼” 以積極的姿態開啓 2026 年的成本比以往任何時候都要高。</p>
<h2><strong>第四季度回調挑戰 BTC 的價值儲存敍述</strong></h2>
<p>十月的崩盤沒有放過長期持有者。</p>
<p>比特幣的 LTH MVRV 從十月初的 3.35 降至目前的 2.5。這意味着長期持有者仍然坐擁可觀的利潤，但顯然有些人獲得了鉅額收益，這加劇了回調。</p>
<p>Riot，這家比特幣礦業公司，就是一個很好的例子。在其 11 月的更新中，該公司報告出售了 383 BTC，顯示即使是長期持有的礦工也為了管理運營或鎖定利潤而進行清算。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-long-term-holder-realized-price-and-mvrv.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-long-term-holder-realized-price-and-mvrv.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Glassnode</p>
<p>在 ETF 方面，連續六天的流入總計約 2.86 億美元大部分被逆轉，在過去兩個交易日中幾乎流失了 74%。這表明 ETF 投資者仍然謹慎，並對市場波動反應敏感。</p>
<p>總的來説，比特幣在第四季度的開局受到宏觀風險、短期持有者的拋售、長期持有者的獲利了結以及數十億資金從 ETF 中流出的影響。結果是超過 30% 的回調，觸發了市場的廣泛清算。</p>
<p>在這種情況下，質疑比特幣 “價值儲存” 敍述的人並非完全錯誤。同時，拋售幫助 BTC 進行了重置，迫使投資者實時區分噪音與信念。</p>
<p>但問題仍然存在：比特幣的敍述真的沒有動搖嗎？</p>
<h2><strong>市場情緒重新定義比特幣的 2026 前景</strong></h2>
<p>大資金購買比特幣並非偶然。</p>
<p>在過去三天中，機構活動有所增加。例如，管理着 10 萬億美元資產的查爾斯·施瓦布計劃從 2026 年初開始讓客户交易現貨 BTC 和以太坊 [ETH]，並進行試點推廣。</p>
<p>而且這還不止於此。</p>
<p>比特幣財庫公司 Twenty One Capital 將於 12 月 9 日在紐約證券交易所上市，帶來約 40 億美元的 BTC，可能成為第三大企業比特幣持有者。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-05-140426.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-05-140426.png"/></p>
<p>來源：X</p>
<p>與此同時，美國銀行允許投資者在四個比特幣現貨 ETF 中分配最多 4% 的投資組合，進一步將比特幣推向主流，擺脱其舊有的投機形象。</p>
<p>綜合來看，這些舉動並非簡單的 “巧合”。</p>
<p>相反，它們反映了比特幣 2026 年前景的更廣泛趨勢：儘管持續的波動和市場恐慌，機構信念正在增強，鞏固 BTC 的 “價值儲存” 敍述。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最後思考</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li><em>比特幣仍處於微妙的狀態，面臨長期持有者的拋售、散户的退場和 ETF 的資金流出。即將到來的 FOMC 決策進一步加劇了波動性。</em></li>
<li><em>儘管短期內存在恐慌，機構的舉動表明強烈的信念，鞏固了 BTC 的價值儲存敍述。</em></li>
</ul>
<hr/>

<p>比特幣 2026 年的前景取決於能否回升至關鍵水平以穩定市場情緒。目前的波動性和宏觀風險對其價值儲存的敍述構成挑戰，但機構活動正在增加。FOMC 會議增加了壓力，但機構的舉動表明對比特幣價值的強烈信心。散户投資者保持謹慎，而大玩家則增強了市場信心。比特幣作為價值儲存的敍述受到考驗，但機構的興趣表明儘管短期存在恐慌、不確定性和懷疑（FUD），其韌性依然存在</p>

<p>The classic “buy the fear” play comes at a cost.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經典的 “買入恐懼” 策略是有代價的。</p>
</div><p>Technically, the market remains in a state of indecision, as Bitcoin [BTC] has spent more than three days attempting to strengthen its $90k floor. With the FOMC approaching, pressure on bids is intensifying even further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從技術上看，市場仍處於猶豫狀態，因為比特幣 [BTC] 已經花費超過三天的時間試圖鞏固其 $90,000 的支撐位。隨着 FOMC 的臨近，買盤壓力進一步加大。</p>
</div><p>In this volatility, retail investors are naturally pushed to the sidelines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種波動中，散户投資者自然被迫退居一旁。</p>
</div><p>As a result, the burden now falls on the heavyweights to reinforce market confidence. The real question is whether BTC’s “store-of-value” narrative is still rock solid, or if it has been shaken in the face of recent market FUD.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，現在的重擔落在了大户身上，以增強市場信心。真正的問題是，BTC 的 “價值儲存” 敍述是否依然堅如磐石，還是在近期市場的恐慌中動搖了。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Bitcoin’s fragile market positioning meets macro risk</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>比特幣脆弱的市場定位面臨宏觀風險</strong></h2>
</div><p>BTCmarket positioning is still looking too fragile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BTC 的市場定位仍然顯得過於脆弱。</p>
</div><p>Glassnode’s data shows exactly why. Their risk indicators reveal that since mid-November, BTC has slipped below the 0.75 MVRV quantile, essentially signaling that around 25% of the supply is now sitting at an unrealized loss.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Glassnode 的數據正好説明了這一點。他們的風險指標顯示，自 11 月中旬以來，BTC 已經跌破了 0.75 MVRV 分位，基本上表明大約 25% 的供應現在處於未實現損失狀態。</p>
</div><p>When Bitcoin is in that zone, capitulation risk starts to rise. Even a small macro shock can be enough to push these HODLers into realizing losses. Now, with the FOMC meeting coming up, that sensitivity gets amplified.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當比特幣處於這個區域時，拋售風險開始上升。即使是小的宏觀衝擊也足以迫使這些 HODLers 實現損失。現在，隨着 FOMC 會議的臨近，這種敏感性被放大了。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>For the market to stabilize, Bitcoin needs to climb back above the 0.75 quantile around $95.8k. After that, the next big hurdle is the 0.85 quantile near $106.2k. It is a level that would signal real recovery momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了使市場穩定，比特幣需要重新攀升至 0.75 分位，約為 $95,800。之後，下一個大障礙是接近 $106,200 的 0.85 分位。這是一個將標誌真正恢復動能的水平。</p>
</div><p>At these levels, fear could start flipping into FOMO across wider investor groups. Until then, this metric is a clear snapshot of where investor psychology is right now: Reactive, and highly sensitive to macro noise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這些水平上，恐懼可能開始轉變為更廣泛投資者羣體的 FOMO。在此之前，這一指標清晰地反映了當前投資者心理的狀態：反應性強，並對宏觀噪音高度敏感。</p>
</div><p>That makes the upcoming FOMC meeting even more significant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這使得即將到來的 FOMC 會議更加重要。</p>
</div><p>With the market pricing in roughly a 90% chance of a rate cut, sentiment is heavily skewed bullish. That also means the cost of “buying the fear” to kick off 2026 on a positive note is higher than it’s ever been.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場預計降息的概率約為 90%，情緒嚴重偏向看漲。這也意味着 “買入恐懼” 以積極的姿態開啓 2026 年的成本比以往任何時候都要高。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Q4 pullbacks challenge BTC’s store-of-value narrative</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>第四季度回調挑戰 BTC 的價值儲存敍述</strong></h2>
</div><p>The October crash didn’t spare long-term holders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十月的崩盤沒有放過長期持有者。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin’s LTH MVRV has dropped from a peak of 3.35 in early October to 2.5 at press time. That means long-term holders are still sitting on solid profits, but some clearly took big gains, which added to the pullback.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣的 LTH MVRV 從十月初的 3.35 降至目前的 2.5。這意味着長期持有者仍然坐擁可觀的利潤，但顯然有些人獲得了鉅額收益，這加劇了回調。</p>
</div><p>Riot, the Bitcoin mining company, is a good example. In its November update, the firm reported selling 383 BTC, showing that even miners with long-term positions liquidated to manage operations or lock in profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Riot，這家比特幣礦業公司，就是一個很好的例子。在其 11 月的更新中，該公司報告出售了 383 BTC，顯示即使是長期持有的礦工也為了管理運營或鎖定利潤而進行清算。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-long-term-holder-realized-price-and-mvrv.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/glassnode-studio_bitcoin-long-term-holder-realized-price-and-mvrv.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>On the ETF side, six straight days of inflows totalling about $286 million mostly reversed, with nearly 74% gone over the last two trading days. This shows ETF investors are still cautious and reactive to market swings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 ETF 方面，連續六天的流入總計約 2.86 億美元大部分被逆轉，在過去兩個交易日中幾乎流失了 74%。這表明 ETF 投資者仍然謹慎，並對市場波動反應敏感。</p>
</div><p>All in all, Bitcoin’s start to Q4 was marked by macro risks, STH capitulation, LTHs taking profits, and billions bleeding out of ETFs. The result was a 30%+ drawdown, triggering broad liquidations across the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總的來説，比特幣在第四季度的開局受到宏觀風險、短期持有者的拋售、長期持有者的獲利了結以及數十億資金從 ETF 中流出的影響。結果是超過 30% 的回調，觸發了市場的廣泛清算。</p>
</div><p>In this setup, those questioning Bitcoin’s “store-of-value” narrative weren’t entirely wrong. At the same time, the sell-off helped BTC reset, forcing investors to separate noise from conviction in real time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種情況下，質疑比特幣 “價值儲存” 敍述的人並非完全錯誤。同時，拋售幫助 BTC 進行了重置，迫使投資者實時區分噪音與信念。</p>
</div><p>But the question remains: Is Bitcoin’s narrative truly unshaken?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但問題仍然存在：比特幣的敍述真的沒有動搖嗎？</p>
</div><h2><strong>Market sentiment redefines Bitcoin’s 2026 outlook</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>市場情緒重新定義比特幣的 2026 前景</strong></h2>
</div><p>Big money buying Bitcoin isn’t happening by chance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大資金購買比特幣並非偶然。</p>
</div><p>Over the past three days, institutional activity has picked up. For instance, Charles Schwab, which manages $10 trillion in assets, plans to let clients trade spot BTC and Ethereum [ETH] starting early 2026 with a pilot rollout.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去三天中，機構活動有所增加。例如，管理着 10 萬億美元資產的查爾斯·施瓦布計劃從 2026 年初開始讓客户交易現貨 BTC 和以太坊 [ETH]，並進行試點推廣。</p>
</div><p>And it doesn’t stop there.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且這還不止於此。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin treasury firm Twenty One Capital will begin trading on the NYSE on the 9th of December, bringing roughly $4 billion in BTC onto the exchange and potentially becoming the third-largest corporate Bitcoin holder.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣財庫公司 Twenty One Capital 將於 12 月 9 日在紐約證券交易所上市，帶來約 40 億美元的 BTC，可能成為第三大企業比特幣持有者。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-05-140426.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-05-140426.png"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：X</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Bank of America is letting investors allocate up to 4% of their portfolios across four Bitcoin spot ETFs, pushing Bitcoin further into the mainstream and shedding some of its old speculative image.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，美國銀行允許投資者在四個比特幣現貨 ETF 中分配最多 4% 的投資組合，進一步將比特幣推向主流，擺脱其舊有的投機形象。</p>
</div><p>Taken together, these moves aren’t simply a “coincidence.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>綜合來看，這些舉動並非簡單的 “巧合”。</p>
</div><p>Instead, they reflect a broader trend in Bitcoin’s 2026 outlook: Despite ongoing volatility and market FUD, institutional conviction is growing stronger, reinforcing BTC’s “store-of-value” narrative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，它們反映了比特幣 2026 年前景的更廣泛趨勢：儘管持續的波動和市場恐慌，機構信念正在增強，鞏固 BTC 的 “價值儲存” 敍述。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最後思考</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Bitcoin remains in a delicate position, with LTH capitulation, retail sidelining, and ETF outflows. The upcoming FOMC decisions further heighten volatility.</em></li>
<li><em>Despite short-term FUD, institutional moves signal strong conviction, reinforcing BTC’s store-of-value narrative.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>比特幣仍處於微妙的狀態，面臨長期持有者的拋售、散户的退場和 ETF 的資金流出。即將到來的 FOMC 決策進一步加劇了波動性。</em></li>
<li><em>儘管短期內存在恐慌，機構的舉動表明強烈的信念，鞏固了 BTC 的價值儲存敍述。</em></li>
</ul>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>

比特幣 2026 年的前景：為何 BTC 的價格復甦依賴於這一水平