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<p>印度盧比對主要全球貨幣的匯率已降至十多年來的最低水平，受到原油價格上漲和持續的外資流出的影響。</p>
<p>印度儲備銀行最新公報的數據表明，盧比的 40 種貨幣實際有效匯率（REER）降至 92.72。</p>
<p>REER 調整了通貨膨脹差異，廣泛用於評估貨幣的競爭力。</p>
<p>最新數據顯示，盧比的匯率顯著低於其長期平均水平 98.25，表明該貨幣與歷史水平相比被嚴重低估。</p>
<h2>1. 伊朗戰爭壓力下油價飆升影響盧比</h2>
<p>由於伊朗戰爭導致的原油價格急劇上漲，成為壓制盧比的關鍵因素。</p>
<p>油價上漲增加了印度的進口賬單，導致對美元的需求加大，給本地貨幣施加下行壓力。</p>
<p>分析師指出，隨着進口商加大采購以確保供應，油相關的美元需求已加劇。</p>
<h2>2. 外資流出加劇貨幣疲軟</h2>
<p>大量外資流出進一步削弱了盧比。</p>
<p>在全球風險厭惡加劇和對美元需求增加的背景下，投資者紛紛撤出印度股市。</p>
<p>正如路透社報道所提到的，BofA 全球研究的分析師表示，由於 “為確保供應而增加的油品進口導致的美元需求，以及在風險厭惡加劇的情況下大規模的股市流出”，盧比可能會繼續承壓。</p>
<h2>3. 低通脹拖累實際匯率</h2>
<p>印度相對温和的通脹也促成了 REER 的下降。</p>
<p>較低的通脹降低了相對價格水平的優勢，拉低了貨幣的貿易加權估值。</p>
<p>這一因素加劇了盧比今年迄今約 4.5% 的下跌，路透社的報道中提到。</p>
<h2>4. 自 2024 年底以來的急劇貶值趨勢</h2>
<p>3 月份的 REER 讀數標誌着自 2024 年底以來近 15 點的急劇下降，成為近年來實際貶值最劇烈的時期之一。</p>
<p>盧比在 3 月底也創下每美元 95.21 的歷史低點，突顯了該貨幣持續承壓的情況。</p>
<h2>5. 更廣泛的貿易加權指標顯示更深的低估</h2>
<p>一個較窄的六種貨幣 REER 指標顯示出更陡峭的下降。</p>
<p>該指數在 3 月份降至 89.61，為 2015 年 4 月以來的最低水平，遠低於其近 100 的長期平均水平。</p>
<p>根據貿易部的數據，2024-2025 財年印度的六大貿易伙伴包括美國、中國、阿聯酋、俄羅斯、沙特阿拉伯和新加坡。</p>
<h2>儘管低估，復甦前景有限</h2>
<p>儘管盧比看起來被低估，分析師認為短期內反彈的空間有限。</p>
<p>持續的美元需求和全球不確定性預計將繼續給該貨幣施加壓力。</p>
<p>與此同時，較弱的 REER 提高了出口競爭力，使印度資產對外國投資者更便宜，儘管這降低了他們在外幣計價的現有投資價值。</p>
<p>印度儲備銀行在其 2026-27 財年的預測中假設美元匯率為 94。</p>
<p>從這個水平貶值 5% 可能會使通脹增加約 40 個基點，增長增加 25 個基點，按照 RBI 的估計。</p>
<p>文章《是什麼導致印度盧比近年來的急劇下跌？5 個關鍵原因》首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>

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<p>印度盧比已跌至十多年來的最低水平，主要受到原油價格上漲和大量外資流出的影響。印度儲備銀行的實際有效匯率（REER）降至 92.72，表明該貨幣相較於其長期平均值 98.25 被低估。主要因素包括石油進口成本增加、外資大量撤出、通脹温和以及自 2024 年底以來的急劇貶值趨勢。儘管看似被低估，分析師預測由於持續的美元需求和全球不確定性，復甦空間有限</p>

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<p>The Indian rupee’s valuation against major global currencies has dropped to its lowest level in more than a decade, weighed down by rising crude oil prices and persistent foreign outflows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度盧比對主要全球貨幣的匯率已降至十多年來的最低水平，受到原油價格上漲和持續的外資流出的影響。</p>
</div><p>Data from the Reserve Bank of India’s latest bulletin showed that the rupee’s 40-currency real effective exchange rate (REER) fell to 92.72.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度儲備銀行最新公報的數據表明，盧比的 40 種貨幣實際有效匯率（REER）降至 92.72。</p>
</div><p>The REER adjusts for inflation differentials and is widely used to assess a currency’s competitiveness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>REER 調整了通貨膨脹差異，廣泛用於評估貨幣的競爭力。</p>
</div><p>The latest reading places the rupee significantly below its long-term average of 98.25, indicating that the currency is deeply undervalued compared to historical levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新數據顯示，盧比的匯率顯著低於其長期平均水平 98.25，表明該貨幣與歷史水平相比被嚴重低估。</p>
</div><h2>1. Oil price surge amid Iran war pressures rupee</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 伊朗戰爭壓力下油價飆升影響盧比</h2>
</div><p>A sharp rise in crude oil prices, driven by the Iran war, has emerged as a key factor weighing on the rupee.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於伊朗戰爭導致的原油價格急劇上漲，成為壓制盧比的關鍵因素。</p>
</div><p>Higher oil prices increase India’s import bill, leading to stronger demand for dollars and putting downward pressure on the local currency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油價上漲增加了印度的進口賬單，導致對美元的需求加大，給本地貨幣施加下行壓力。</p>
</div><p>Analysts noted that oil-related dollar demand has intensified as importers ramp up purchases to secure supplies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師指出，隨着進口商加大采購以確保供應，油相關的美元需求已加劇。</p>
</div><h2>2. Foreign portfolio outflows add to currency weakness</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 外資流出加劇貨幣疲軟</h2>
</div><p>Heavy foreign portfolio outflows have further weakened the rupee.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大量外資流出進一步削弱了盧比。</p>
</div><p>Investors have pulled money out of Indian equities amid heightened global risk aversion and increasing demand for the US dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在全球風險厭惡加劇和對美元需求增加的背景下，投資者紛紛撤出印度股市。</p>
</div><p>As mentioned in a Reuters report, Analysts at BofA Global Research said the rupee is likely to remain under pressure due to “dollar demand from ramp-up in oil imports to secure supplies and by sizeable equity outflows amid heightened risk aversion.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如路透社報道所提到的，BofA 全球研究的分析師表示，由於 “為確保供應而增加的油品進口導致的美元需求，以及在風險厭惡加劇的情況下大規模的股市流出”，盧比可能會繼續承壓。</p>
</div><h2>3. Weak inflation drags real exchange rate lower</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 低通脹拖累實際匯率</h2>
</div><p>Relatively subdued inflation in India has also contributed to the fall in REER.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度相對温和的通脹也促成了 REER 的下降。</p>
</div><p>Lower inflation reduces the relative price level advantage, pulling down the trade-weighted valuation of the currency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>較低的通脹降低了相對價格水平的優勢，拉低了貨幣的貿易加權估值。</p>
</div><p>This factor has compounded the impact of the rupee’s approximately 4.5% decline so far this year, as cited in a Reuters report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一因素加劇了盧比今年迄今約 4.5% 的下跌，路透社的報道中提到。</p>
</div><h2>4. Sharp depreciation trend since late 2024</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>4. 自 2024 年底以來的急劇貶值趨勢</h2>
</div><p>The March REER reading caps a steep decline of nearly 15 points from late-2024 highs, marking one of the sharpest episodes of real depreciation in recent years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>3 月份的 REER 讀數標誌着自 2024 年底以來近 15 點的急劇下降，成為近年來實際貶值最劇烈的時期之一。</p>
</div><p>The rupee also hit a record low of 95.21 per dollar in late March, highlighting the sustained pressure on the currency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>盧比在 3 月底也創下每美元 95.21 的歷史低點，突顯了該貨幣持續承壓的情況。</p>
</div><h2>5. Broader trade-weighted measures signal deeper undervaluation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>5. 更廣泛的貿易加權指標顯示更深的低估</h2>
</div><p>A narrower six-currency REER gauge shows an even steeper decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一個較窄的六種貨幣 REER 指標顯示出更陡峭的下降。</p>
</div><p>The index dropped to 89.61 in March, its lowest level since records began in April 2015, and well below its long-term average of nearly 100.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該指數在 3 月份降至 89.61，為 2015 年 4 月以來的最低水平，遠低於其近 100 的長期平均水平。</p>
</div><p>India’s six largest trading partners during the 2024–2025 fiscal year included the US, China, the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore, according to trade ministry data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據貿易部的數據，2024-2025 財年印度的六大貿易伙伴包括美國、中國、阿聯酋、俄羅斯、沙特阿拉伯和新加坡。</p>
</div><h2>Limited recovery outlook despite undervaluation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>儘管低估，復甦前景有限</h2>
</div><p>Despite the rupee appearing undervalued, analysts see limited scope for a near-term rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管盧比看起來被低估，分析師認為短期內反彈的空間有限。</p>
</div><p>Persistent dollar demand and global uncertainties are expected to keep the currency under pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>持續的美元需求和全球不確定性預計將繼續給該貨幣施加壓力。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, a weaker REER improves export competitiveness and makes Indian assets cheaper for foreign investors, though it reduces the value of their existing investments in foreign currency terms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，較弱的 REER 提高了出口競爭力，使印度資產對外國投資者更便宜，儘管這降低了他們在外幣計價的現有投資價值。</p>
</div><p>The Reserve Bank of India has assumed an exchange rate of 94 per dollar in its projections for fiscal year 2026–27.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印度儲備銀行在其 2026-27 財年的預測中假設美元匯率為 94。</p>
</div><p>A 5% depreciation from this level could add about 40 basis points to inflation and 25 basis points to growth, as per RBI estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從這個水平貶值 5% 可能會使通脹增加約 40 個基點，增長增加 25 個基點，按照 RBI 的估計。</p>
</div><p>The post What triggered the Indian rupee’s sharpest fall in years? 5 key reasons appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>文章《是什麼導致印度盧比近年來的急劇下跌？5 個關鍵原因》首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>
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What triggered the Indian rupee’s sharpest fall in years? 5 key reasons

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是什麼導致印度盧比出現近年來最劇烈的下跌？5 個關鍵原因