<p>[新德里] 印度於週一（5 月 4 日）開始在多個關鍵州計票，這為總理納倫德拉·莫迪在面臨加劇的經濟挑戰時的人氣提供了一個晴雨表。</p>
<p>在東部的西孟加拉邦，賭注尤其高，莫迪的印度人民黨（BJP）正尋求首次戰勝執政 15 年的首席部長瑪瑪塔·班納吉。上週投票結束時的出口民調顯示，BJP 在班納吉的政黨面前略佔優勢。</p>
<p>這場競選在雙方之間展開了激烈的競爭，並且以對選民名單的有爭議的更改為主導，反對派稱莫迪的政黨利用這一點來傾斜選舉結果。被稱為特別強化修訂的這一舉措掩蓋了傳統的競選議題，如就業和通貨膨脹。</p>
<p>在西孟加拉邦獲勝將使 BJP 的支持超越其在印度北部和西部的傳統根據地。該州在下議院（即人民院）中也具有重要的政治分量，代表人數位居第三。</p>
<p>西孟加拉邦的結果不僅對該州重要，也對國家政治至關重要，因為這可能為 2029 年的全國選舉定下基調，班納拉斯印度大學的政治分析師和聯合國教科文組織和平講座教授普里揚卡·烏帕迪亞亞表示。</p>
<p>“這次選舉，尤其是以異常的攻擊性和強度進行，因為西孟加拉邦仍被視為反對派的堡壘，” 他説。</p>
<h3>在新的全球秩序中導航亞洲</h3>
<p>獲取洞察，送到您的郵箱。</p>
<p>在西孟加拉邦獲勝將鞏固莫迪的人氣，並標誌着與兩年前的轉變，當時 BJP 未能在大選中獲得多數席位。</p>
<p>這也將有助於增強總理的權力，因為他正在應對由伊朗戰爭引發的經濟壓力。印度在能源供應上嚴重依賴中東，並受到天然氣短缺和油價飆升的影響。印度盧比已跌至歷史低點，政府警告稱，通貨膨脹上升可能會抑制經濟需求。</p>
<p>BJP 和班納吉的特里納穆爾國大黨承諾向女性和失業青年提供現金補助以吸引選民。由於數十萬孟加拉工人擔心在選民修訂後可能失去福利，投票率異常高，超過 90%。</p>
<p>另見</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/a355eeedcf920053d10ad7ecf99f09c366e853c1359f60cdef64a965c7200d59/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/a355eeedcf920053d10ad7ecf99f09c366e853c1359f60cdef64a965c7200d59/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>莫迪與馬克龍的 ‘世紀合同’：印度 - 歐洲貿易的新支柱</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/67b67157d0a27100aa0a7f31e562201230dbf0ca9496f0fda44c65397cbafdf0/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/67b67157d0a27100aa0a7f31e562201230dbf0ca9496f0fda44c65397cbafdf0/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>印度僑民投資者面臨更少障礙，但分析師認為仍需更多措施來改善交易條件</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/df9f0bc7d167b0f95fd39dde7bf3329460d9b71cd8650176f1a6a8930f2046ee/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/df9f0bc7d167b0f95fd39dde7bf3329460d9b71cd8650176f1a6a8930f2046ee/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>印度與馬來西亞重申推動貿易與合作的承諾</h3>
<p>選舉委員會從選民名單中刪除了約九百萬個名字，稱此舉旨在消除重複條目和非法移民。反對派團體指控莫迪的印度民族主義政黨利用這一舉措主要針對貧困和穆斯林選民。</p>
<p>“對於 BJP 來説，儘管進行了激進的競選和制度優勢，但在孟加拉的失利將凸顯其以印度教民族主義為驅動的意識形態和擴張戰略的侷限性，” 彭博社南亞地緣經濟分析師切特娜·庫馬爾寫道。“對於班納吉來説，賭注更高：保持權力對維持她的國家雄心和將她定位為 2029 年對莫迪的可信挑戰者至關重要。”</p>
<p>選舉委員會還將公佈在四月投票的阿薩姆邦、泰米爾納德邦和喀拉拉邦的投票結果。</p>
<p>在鄰近的阿薩姆邦，出口民調顯示 BJP 領導的聯盟預計將贏得第三個連續任期，為希曼塔·比斯瓦·薩爾馬繼續擔任首席部長鋪平道路。該黨將其競選重點放在安全和來自鄰國孟加拉國的非法移民上，同時承諾增加對發展項目的支出。</p>
<p>投資者將密切關注泰米爾納德邦的結果，該州由反對派控制，是汽車製造、電子製造和蘋果 iPhone 生產的關鍵設施所在地。</p>
<p>該州由首席部長 MK·斯大林治理，他的德拉維達進步聯盟黨預計將連續第二次保持權力，大多數出口民調顯示。BJP 是與地方的全印度安娜·德拉維達進步聯盟的聯盟中的少數合作伙伴。它競選了 27 個席位，將其餘席位留給地方盟友和其他合作伙伴。</p>
<p>喀拉拉邦在選舉中有更換政府的歷史。出口民調顯示，由印度國民大會黨領導的聯盟首次擊敗由印度共產黨（馬克思主義）領導的聯盟，自 2016 年以來首次。BJP 在該州的政治中是一個小角色，並未在 2021 年州選舉中贏得任何席位。彭博社</p>
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安碩印度

<p>印度開始在關鍵州計票，這對總理莫迪在經濟挑戰中的受歡迎程度至關重要。印度人民黨（BJP）旨在在與首席部長班納吉（Mamata Banerjee）的激烈競選後，在西孟加拉邦取得首次勝利。勝利將擴大 BJP 的影響力，並在 2029 年選舉前影響國家政治。高投票率和有爭議的選民名單變更標誌着此次選舉。人們還期待來自阿薩姆邦、泰米爾納德邦和喀拉拉邦的結果，出口民調顯示 BJP 在阿薩姆邦有潛在勝利，而執政黨在泰米爾納德邦表現強勁</p>

<p>[NEW DELHI] India begins counting votes in several key states on Monday (May 4), providing a barometer of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity in the face of heightened economic challenges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[新德里] 印度於週一（5 月 4 日）開始在多個關鍵州計票，這為總理納倫德拉·莫迪在面臨加劇的經濟挑戰時的人氣提供了一個晴雨表。</p>
</div><p>The stakes are particularly high in the eastern state of West Bengal, where Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is seeking its first win against Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who has been in power for 15 years. Exit polls at the end of voting last week showed the BJP holding a slight edge over Banerjee’s party.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在東部的西孟加拉邦，賭注尤其高，莫迪的印度人民黨（BJP）正尋求首次戰勝執政 15 年的首席部長瑪瑪塔·班納吉。上週投票結束時的出口民調顯示，BJP 在班納吉的政黨面前略佔優勢。</p>
</div><p>The campaign saw a bitter contest between the two sides and was dominated by controversial changes to voter rolls, which the opposition said Modi’s party was using to tilt the election in his favour. Known as the Special Intensive Revision, the exercise overshadowed traditional campaign issues such as jobs and inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這場競選在雙方之間展開了激烈的競爭，並且以對選民名單的有爭議的更改為主導，反對派稱莫迪的政黨利用這一點來傾斜選舉結果。被稱為特別強化修訂的這一舉措掩蓋了傳統的競選議題，如就業和通貨膨脹。</p>
</div><p>A victory in West Bengal would expand the BJP’s support beyond its traditional strongholds in northern and western India. The state also carries significant political weight, with the third-highest representation in the lower house of parliament, or Lok Sabha.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在西孟加拉邦獲勝將使 BJP 的支持超越其在印度北部和西部的傳統根據地。該州在下議院（即人民院）中也具有重要的政治分量，代表人數位居第三。</p>
</div><p>West Bengal results matter not just for the state but for national politics, as they could set the tone for national elections in 2029, said Priyankar Upadhyaya, a political analyst and Unesco chair professor of peace at Banaras Hindu University.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西孟加拉邦的結果不僅對該州重要，也對國家政治至關重要，因為這可能為 2029 年的全國選舉定下基調，班納拉斯印度大學的政治分析師和聯合國教科文組織和平講座教授普里揚卡·烏帕迪亞亞表示。</p>
</div><p>“This election, in particular, was fought with unusual aggression and intensity, as West Bengal is still seen as a citadel of the opposition,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這次選舉，尤其是以異常的攻擊性和強度進行，因為西孟加拉邦仍被視為反對派的堡壘，” 他説。</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><h3>在新的全球秩序中導航亞洲</h3>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>獲取洞察，送到您的郵箱。</p>
</div><p>A win in West Bengal would solidify Modi’s popularity and mark a turnaround from two years ago when the BJP failed to secure a majority in the general election.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在西孟加拉邦獲勝將鞏固莫迪的人氣，並標誌着與兩年前的轉變，當時 BJP 未能在大選中獲得多數席位。</p>
</div><p>It would also help to strengthen the prime minister’s hand as he grapples with economic pressures triggered by the Iran war. India is heavily reliant on energy supplies from the Middle East and has been hit by gas shortages and surging oil costs. The rupee has plunged to a record low, and the government has warned that higher inflation could curb demand in the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這也將有助於增強總理的權力，因為他正在應對由伊朗戰爭引發的經濟壓力。印度在能源供應上嚴重依賴中東，並受到天然氣短缺和油價飆升的影響。印度盧比已跌至歷史低點，政府警告稱，通貨膨脹上升可能會抑制經濟需求。</p>
</div><p>The BJP and Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress party promised cash handouts to women and unemployed youth to lure voters. Turnout in the election was unusually high at over 90 per cent as hundreds of thousands of Bengali workers across the country made the trip home to cast their ballots, concerned they may lose access to benefits after the voter revision exercise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BJP 和班納吉的特里納穆爾國大黨承諾向女性和失業青年提供現金補助以吸引選民。由於數十萬孟加拉工人擔心在選民修訂後可能失去福利，投票率異常高，超過 90%。</p>
</div><p>SEE ALSO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另見</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/a355eeedcf920053d10ad7ecf99f09c366e853c1359f60cdef64a965c7200d59/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/a355eeedcf920053d10ad7ecf99f09c366e853c1359f60cdef64a965c7200d59?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Modi and Macron’s ‘contract of the century’: A new anchor for India-Europe trade</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>莫迪與馬克龍的 ‘世紀合同’：印度 - 歐洲貿易的新支柱</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/67b67157d0a27100aa0a7f31e562201230dbf0ca9496f0fda44c65397cbafdf0/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/67b67157d0a27100aa0a7f31e562201230dbf0ca9496f0fda44c65397cbafdf0?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Fewer hurdles for Indian diaspora investors, but more needed to sweeten the deal: analysts</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>印度僑民投資者面臨更少障礙，但分析師認為仍需更多措施來改善交易條件</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/df9f0bc7d167b0f95fd39dde7bf3329460d9b71cd8650176f1a6a8930f2046ee/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/df9f0bc7d167b0f95fd39dde7bf3329460d9b71cd8650176f1a6a8930f2046ee?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>India, Malaysia renew pledges to boost trade, collaboration</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>印度與馬來西亞重申推動貿易與合作的承諾</h3>
</div><p>The Election Commission removed about nine million names from the rolls, saying the move was aimed at removing duplicate entries and illegal migrants. Opposition groups alleged that Modi’s Hindu-nationalist party used the exercise to target mainly poor and Muslim voters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>選舉委員會從選民名單中刪除了約九百萬個名字，稱此舉旨在消除重複條目和非法移民。反對派團體指控莫迪的印度民族主義政黨利用這一舉措主要針對貧困和穆斯林選民。</p>
</div><p>“For the BJP, a loss in Bengal – despite an aggressive campaign and institutional advantages – would highlight the limits of its Hindutva-driven ideology and expansion strategy,” wrote Chetna Kumar, Bloomberg’s geoeconomics analyst for South Asia. “For Banerjee, the stakes are higher: retaining power is central to sustaining her national ambitions and positioning her as a credible challenger to Modi in 2029.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“對於 BJP 來説，儘管進行了激進的競選和制度優勢，但在孟加拉的失利將凸顯其以印度教民族主義為驅動的意識形態和擴張戰略的侷限性，” 彭博社南亞地緣經濟分析師切特娜·庫馬爾寫道。“對於班納吉來説，賭注更高：保持權力對維持她的國家雄心和將她定位為 2029 年對莫迪的可信挑戰者至關重要。”</p>
</div><p>The Election Commission will also release vote results for the states of Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, which went to the polls in April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>選舉委員會還將公佈在四月投票的阿薩姆邦、泰米爾納德邦和喀拉拉邦的投票結果。</p>
</div><p>In neighbouring Assam, exit polls showed the BJP-led alliance was projected to win a third consecutive term, paving the way for Himanta Biswa Sarma to continue as chief minister. The party focused its campaign on security and illegal migration from neighbouring Bangladesh, while promising increased spending on development projects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在鄰近的阿薩姆邦，出口民調顯示 BJP 領導的聯盟預計將贏得第三個連續任期，為希曼塔·比斯瓦·薩爾馬繼續擔任首席部長鋪平道路。該黨將其競選重點放在安全和來自鄰國孟加拉國的非法移民上，同時承諾增加對發展項目的支出。</p>
</div><p>Investors would be watching closely for results in Tamil Nadu, the opposition-controlled southern state, which is home to car factories, electronics manufacturing and key facilities for Apple’s iPhone production.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者將密切關注泰米爾納德邦的結果，該州由反對派控制，是汽車製造、電子製造和蘋果 iPhone 生產的關鍵設施所在地。</p>
</div><p>The state is governed by Chief Minister MK Stalin, whose Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam party was on track to retain power for the second consecutive time, most exit polls showed. The BJP is a minority partner in an alliance with the regional All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. It contested 27 seats, leaving the rest to its local ally and other partners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該州由首席部長 MK·斯大林治理，他的德拉維達進步聯盟黨預計將連續第二次保持權力，大多數出口民調顯示。BJP 是與地方的全印度安娜·德拉維達進步聯盟的聯盟中的少數合作伙伴。它競選了 27 個席位，將其餘席位留給地方盟友和其他合作伙伴。</p>
</div><p>Kerala has a history of switching governments in elections. Exit polls showed an alliance led by the Indian National Congress party defeating a coalition led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), for the first time since 2016. The BJP is a minor player in the state’s politics and failed to win a seat in the 2021 state elections. BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>喀拉拉邦在選舉中有更換政府的歷史。出口民調顯示，由印度國民大會黨領導的聯盟首次擊敗由印度共產黨（馬克思主義）領導的聯盟，自 2016 年以來首次。BJP 在該州的政治中是一個小角色，並未在 2021 年州選舉中贏得任何席位。彭博社</p>
</div><p>Decoding Asia newsletter: your guide to navigating Asia in a new global order. Sign up here to get Decoding Asia newsletter. Delivered to your inbox. Free.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>解碼亞洲通訊：您在新的全球秩序中導航亞洲的指南。點擊此處註冊以獲取解碼亞洲通訊。送到您的郵箱。免費。</p>
</div>

莫迪瞄準里程碑式的勝利，印度關鍵邦開始計票