<div><p>The release of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting from April showed how policymakers are thinking about inflation risks with the Middle East conflict a key concern, but with AI and tariffs being closely monitored too. A few policymakers apparently wanted to start to signal a potential path to higher rates in the meeting statement. The minutes of the meeting from April 28-29 during which interest rates were held steady were released on May 20.</p><section id="inflation-pressures-from-middle-east"><h2>Inflation Pressures from the Middle East</h2><p>Pressure from the Middle East conflict on inflation was a key concern in terms of energy and fertilizer costs among other products. Specifically, the minutes stated that, “Almost all participants noted that there was a risk that the conflict in the Middle East could persist for an extended period or that, even after the conflict ended, the prices of oil and other commodities could remain elevated for longer than expected. In such scenarios, these participants expected continued upward pressure on inflation arising from supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, or the pass-through of higher input costs to other prices. The vast majority of participants noted an increased risk that inflation would take longer to return to the Committee’s 2 percent objective than they had previously expected.”</p></section><section id="inflation-risks-beyond-iran"><h2>Inflation Risks Beyond Iran</h2><p>Although for April, the Fed’s internal projections implied inflation may cool by the end of the year. However, it’s not just about conflict-driven inflation. Members of the committee are also closely monitoring the ongoing impact of tariffs on inflation as well as the two-sided impact of AI and housing trends. On the one hand, demand for computing services is a potential inflationary trend. For example, the minutes noted that, “Several participants observed that price pressures associated with strong AI investment expenditures would likely raise input costs for a range of industries.” However, on the other the FOMC also discussed the potential for efficiency gains from AI to potentially lower prices over time. As such, the FOMC is parsing out not only the impact of the Middle East conflict, but what AI and tariffs, among other factors, will mean for inflation.</p></section><section id="high-level-dissent"><h2>A High Level of Dissent</h2><p>The FOMC’s April meeting saw an unusually high level of dissent. Stephen Miran voted for lower rates, as has been a consistent theme. But in addition, three policymakers did not support, “inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time”. The minutes did not offer much additional detail, other than to suggest that this group is perhaps more worried about accelerating inflation in wanting a more “two-sided” statement, which might imply greater attention to higher interest rates in future. </p><p>In summarizing the inflation outlook more generally, the minutes stated that, “Several participants indicated that, in a scenario in which the conflict was resolved soon, rate reductions would be warranted later this year if the effects of higher tariffs and energy prices on inflation were to dissipate in line with their expectations. Some participants expressed concerns, however, about a scenario in which sustained elevated energy prices, combined with the effects of tariffs, could result in inflation pressures becoming embedded more broadly, potentially de-anchoring inflation expectations and creating a greater tradeoff between the Committee’s employment and inflation goals.”</p></section><section id="what-expect"><h2>What to Expect</h2><p>When the FOMC next meets with Kevin Warsh as Chair on June 16-17 there will be additional economic data, but in late April some FOMC members were already planning out scenarios under which interest rates could rise. Financial markets are starting to price that in too. There is a path under which interest rates rise in 2026, whether that materializes will depend, in part, on how the Middle Eastern conflict plays out.</p></section><section id="section"><h2> </h2></section></div>

<p>四月份的聯邦公開市場委員會會議紀要顯示出對與中東衝突、人工智能和關税相關的通脹風險的擔憂。政策制定者指出，由於能源價格和供應鏈中斷，通脹可能面臨上行壓力。會議中觀察到較高程度的分歧，一些成員主張對利率採取更謹慎的態度。未來的會議可能會討論加息問題，這受到持續的地緣政治緊張局勢和經濟數據的影響</p>

美聯儲四月會議紀要提供了關於如何處理通脹風險上升的詳細信息