<p>人工智能（AI）革命使 <strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA +3.90%）幾乎在一夜之間成為家喻户曉的名字。自 2022 年 11 月底 ChatGPT 公開發布以來，英偉達的股票上漲了 1100%——使該公司成為全球最有價值的企業。</p>
<p>然而，2026 年卻是完全不同的故事。今年迄今為止，這家半導體明星的股票僅上漲了 5%。 隨着股票的拋物線式上漲停止，密切觀察的人可能注意到，英偉達的 市盈率（P/E）現在處於七年來的最低水平。</p>
<p>讓我們深入探討這一現象是如何發生的，以及這對未來投資英偉達意味着什麼。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzgzNDAvbnZpZGlhLWxvZ28ucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="英偉達標誌" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzgzNDAvbnZpZGlhLWxvZ28ucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>英偉達在 AI 芯片領域保持領導地位，但投資者擔心競爭</h2>
<p>英偉達長長的圖形處理單元（GPU）名單幫助公司在超大規模 AI 芯片領域保持了核心地位。公司的芯片是 訓練大型語言模型（LLMs）和大規模運行 推理部署 的主要引擎。</p>
<p>主要雲服務提供商如 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 網絡服務（AWS）、<strong>微軟</strong>Azure 和谷歌雲平台（GCP），以及前沿 AI 實驗室如 OpenAI 和 Anthropic，正在利用英偉達的 Blackwell GPU 架構和隨附的 CUDA 軟件 生態系統來構建 AI 應用。</p>
<p>懷疑者指出，投資英偉達時有兩個主要風險來源。在宏觀層面，一些投資者擔心，如果 AI 基礎設施投資的回報顯現得較慢，AI 超大規模公司可能最終會減少 資本支出。在公司特定層面，<strong>超威半導體</strong> 的新加速器架構和 <strong>博通</strong> 的定製 ASIC 設計代表了可能侵蝕英偉達在某些數據中心工作負載中市場份額的競爭威脅。</p>
<p>展開</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="英偉達股票報價" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<p>英偉達</p>
<p>今日變動</p>
<p>(3.90%) $7.90</p>
<p>當前價格</p>
<p>$210.68</p>
<h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$5.1T 市值僅計算公開交易的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或雙重類別非交易股份。隱含市值可能有所不同。市值僅計算公開交易的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或雙重類別非交易股份。隱含市值可能有所不同。</p>
<p>日內區間</p>
<p>$201.91 - $210.87</p>
<p>52 周區間</p>
<p>$162.02 - $236.54</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>5.7M</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>158.9M</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>74.15%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>0.13%</p>
<h2>英偉達股票的未來走勢如何？</h2>
<p>我認為上述擔憂是合理的，並解釋了英偉達市盈率壓縮的許多原因。然而，歷史提供了一種一致的模式。下圖説明了英偉達估值輪廓壓縮的每個先前時期，都是在盈利確認增長的可持續性後，隨之而來的是強勁且持續的重新評級。</p>
<p></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率 數據由 YCharts. 提供。</p>
<p>這是為什麼呢？原因很簡單：市場最終遵循的是盈利軌跡，而不是情緒。</p>
<p>投資者目前正在折價的事實是，英偉達正在擴展其業務，超越 GPU，進入 AI 堆棧的相鄰層。這包括與 <strong>諾基亞</strong>、<strong>Marvell Technology</strong>、<strong>Coherent</strong> 和 <strong>Lumentum</strong> 等公司的投資和戰略合作。通過這些關係，英偉達在高性能網絡、針對 AI 系統優化的 CPU 產品以及將龐大的 GPU 集羣連接在一起所需的光互連方面變得越來越深入。</p>
<p>這些舉措將英偉達的可尋址市場擴展到通用芯片之外。因此，該公司有能力創造額外的收入加速和複合收益槓桿。隨着基於 Blackwell 的收入不斷顯現，而多元化努力也在擴大，英偉達的盈利基礎應該會擴大——為有意義的 估值擴張 奠定基礎。</p>
<p>總的來説，英偉達當前的市盈率水平似乎在經歷多年的非凡擴張後，嵌入了一定程度的正常化。這一點很重要，因為它有助於消除對英偉達基礎業務存在根本性惡化的想法。</p>
<p>現在，投資者實際上是在定價英偉達的增長將從其峯值速率放緩的可能性，而不是承認該公司的絕對盈利能力有擴展的潛力。反過來，這創造了一個相對於歷史趨勢看起來合理的估值設置，前提是公司能夠執行其路線圖。</p>

英偉達

1.5 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Tradr

英偉達期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

<p>英偉達的市盈率已降至七年來的最低點，隨着股票增長放緩，引發了對競爭和人工智能資本支出的擔憂。然而，歷史數據表明，估值壓縮通常在盈利確認增長的可持續性後，預示着顯著的重新評級。英偉達正在從 GPU 擴展到網絡和 CPU 層，旨在擴大其可尋址市場和盈利基礎，可能為未來的估值擴張奠定基礎</p>

<p>The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution turned <strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA +3.90%) into a household name virtually overnight. Since the public launch of ChatGPT in late November 2022, Nvidia stock has risen by 1,100% -- making the company the most valuable business in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能（AI）革命使 <strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA +3.90%）幾乎在一夜之間成為家喻户曉的名字。自 2022 年 11 月底 ChatGPT 公開發布以來，英偉達的股票上漲了 1100%——使該公司成為全球最有價值的企業。</p>
</div><p>However, 2026 has been an entirely different story. Shares of the semiconductor darling have gained a modest 5% so far this year. With the stock's parabolic rise coming to a halt, close observers may have noticed that Nvidia's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is now at its lowest level in seven years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，2026 年卻是完全不同的故事。今年迄今為止，這家半導體明星的股票僅上漲了 5%。 隨着股票的拋物線式上漲停止，密切觀察的人可能注意到，英偉達的 市盈率（P/E）現在處於七年來的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>Let's dive into how this happened and what it means for an investment in Nvidia going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們深入探討這一現象是如何發生的，以及這對未來投資英偉達意味着什麼。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzgzNDAvbnZpZGlhLWxvZ28ucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA" alt="Nvidia logo." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F878340%2Fnvidia-logo.png&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia maintains leadership in the AI chip stack, but investors worry about competition</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達在 AI 芯片領域保持領導地位，但投資者擔心競爭</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia's long roster of graphics processing units (GPUs) has helped the company maintain a central position in the hyperscaler AI chip stack. The company's chips serve as the primary engines for both training large language models (LLMs) and running inference deployments at scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達長長的圖形處理單元（GPU）名單幫助公司在超大規模 AI 芯片領域保持了核心地位。公司的芯片是 訓練大型語言模型（LLMs）和大規模運行 推理部署 的主要引擎。</p>
</div><p>Major cloud providers like <strong>Amazon</strong> Web Services (AWS), <strong>Microsoft</strong> Azure, and Google Cloud Platform (GCP) and frontier AI labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic are leveraging Nvidia's Blackwell GPU architecture and accompanying CUDA software ecosystem to build AI applications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要雲服務提供商如 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 網絡服務（AWS）、<strong>微軟</strong>Azure 和谷歌雲平台（GCP），以及前沿 AI 實驗室如 OpenAI 和 Anthropic，正在利用英偉達的 Blackwell GPU 架構和隨附的 CUDA 軟件 生態系統來構建 AI 應用。</p>
</div><p>Skeptics highlight two main sources of risk when it comes to investing in Nvidia. On the macro side of the equation, some investors worry that AI hyperscalers could eventually moderate capex if returns on AI infrastructure investments prove slower to materialize. On the company-specific side, new accelerator architectures from <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> and custom ASIC designs from <strong>Broadcom</strong> represent competitive threats that could erode Nvidia's market share in certain data center workloads.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>懷疑者指出，投資英偉達時有兩個主要風險來源。在宏觀層面，一些投資者擔心，如果 AI 基礎設施投資的回報顯現得較慢，AI 超大規模公司可能最終會減少 資本支出。在公司特定層面，<strong>超威半導體</strong> 的新加速器架構和 <strong>博通</strong> 的定製 ASIC 設計代表了可能侵蝕英偉達在某些數據中心工作負載中市場份額的競爭威脅。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展開</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Nvidia Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FNVDA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日變動</p>
</div><p>(3.90%) $7.90</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(3.90%) $7.90</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前價格</p>
</div><p>$210.68</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$210.68</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>關鍵數據點</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$5.1TMarket cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.Market cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$5.1T 市值僅計算公開交易的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或雙重類別非交易股份。隱含市值可能有所不同。市值僅計算公開交易的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或雙重類別非交易股份。隱含市值可能有所不同。</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日內區間</p>
</div><p>$201.91 - $210.87</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$201.91 - $210.87</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周區間</p>
</div><p>$162.02 - $236.54</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$162.02 - $236.54</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>5.7M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>5.7M</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>158.9M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>158.9M</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>74.15%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>74.15%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.13%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.13%</p>
</div><h2>Where is Nvidia stock headed?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達股票的未來走勢如何？</h2>
</div><p>I think the concerns detailed above are legitimate and explain much of the compression in Nvidia's P/E multiple. However, history offers a consistent pattern. The chart below illustrates that every prior period in which Nvidia's valuation profile compressed was followed by a powerful and sustained re-rating higher once earnings confirmed the durability of growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為上述擔憂是合理的，並解釋了英偉達市盈率壓縮的許多原因。然而，歷史提供了一種一致的模式。下圖説明了英偉達估值輪廓壓縮的每個先前時期，都是在盈利確認增長的可持續性後，隨之而來的是強勁且持續的重新評級。</p>
</div><p></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p></p>
</div><p>NVDA PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率 數據由 YCharts. 提供。</p>
</div><p>Why is this? The reason is simple: Markets ultimately follow earnings trajectories, not sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是為什麼呢？原因很簡單：市場最終遵循的是盈利軌跡，而不是情緒。</p>
</div><p>What investors are currently discounting is the fact that Nvidia is expanding beyond GPUs into adjacent layers of the AI stack. This includes investments and strategic collaborations with companies like <strong>Nokia</strong>, <strong>Marvell Technology</strong>, <strong>Coherent</strong>, and <strong>Lumentum</strong>. Through these relationships, Nvidia is becoming increasingly embedded across high-performance networking, CPU offerings optimized for AI systems, and optical interconnects needed to stitch enormous GPU clusters together.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者目前正在折價的事實是，英偉達正在擴展其業務，超越 GPU，進入 AI 堆棧的相鄰層。這包括與 <strong>諾基亞</strong>、<strong>Marvell Technology</strong>、<strong>Coherent</strong> 和 <strong>Lumentum</strong> 等公司的投資和戰略合作。通過這些關係，英偉達在高性能網絡、針對 AI 系統優化的 CPU 產品以及將龐大的 GPU 集羣連接在一起所需的光互連方面變得越來越深入。</p>
</div><p>These moves expand Nvidia's addressable market beyond general-purpose chips. As such, the company is in a position to create additional levers for revenue acceleration and compounded earnings. As Blackwell-driven revenue continues to materialize while diversification efforts scale, Nvidia's earnings base should widen -- setting the stage for meaningful valuation expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些舉措將英偉達的可尋址市場擴展到通用芯片之外。因此，該公司有能力創造額外的收入加速和複合收益槓桿。隨着基於 Blackwell 的收入不斷顯現，而多元化努力也在擴大，英偉達的盈利基礎應該會擴大——為有意義的 估值擴張 奠定基礎。</p>
</div><p>All told, Nvidia's current P/E levels appear to embed a degree of normalization after years of extraordinary expansion. This is important to understand, because it helps silence the idea that there is a fundamental deterioration in Nvidia's underlying business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總的來説，英偉達當前的市盈率水平似乎在經歷多年的非凡擴張後，嵌入了一定程度的正常化。這一點很重要，因為它有助於消除對英偉達基礎業務存在根本性惡化的想法。</p>
</div><p>Right now, investors are effectively pricing in the possibility that Nvidia's growth will moderate from its peak rates more than acknowledging how the company's absolute earnings power is positioned to expand. In turn, this creates a valuation setup that looks reasonable relative to historical trends, provided the company executes on its roadmap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，投資者實際上是在定價英偉達的增長將從其峯值速率放緩的可能性，而不是承認該公司的絕對盈利能力有擴展的潛力。反過來，這創造了一個相對於歷史趨勢看起來合理的估值設置，前提是公司能夠執行其路線圖。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Stock Just Did Something for the First Time in 7 Years. Here's What History Says Happens Next.

- Nvidia 股價自 ChatGPT 上線以來上漲 1,100%，但 2026 年僅漲 5%。  
- 投資者擔憂競爭和資本支出回落影響盈利能力。  
- Nvidia 此次市盈率回落或是市場對未來增長放緩的反映。

Motley Fool

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

南方兩倍做多英偉達

南方兩倍做空英偉達

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

1 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Direxion

ProShares Ultra NVDA

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - Leverage Shares

Leverage Shares 2x Cpd Acclrtd NVDAMnETF

NVDA 週配息 ETF - Roundhill​

GraniteShares YieldBOOST NVDA ETF

xETFs NVDA Daily Income ETF

NVDA 期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

XI二南英偉-U

2 倍做多 MAG7 指數 ETF - Roundhill

半導體 ETF - VanEck Vectors

費城交易所 半導體 ETF - iShares

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF

標普半導體 ETF - SPDR

動態半導體 ETF - Invesco

納斯達克半導體 ETF - First Trust

OpenAI

博通

諾基亞

邁威爾科技

Coherent Corp.

Lumentum控股

NVIDIA Corporation

Nokia Oyj

英偉達股票在 7 年來首次出現了新的動向。歷史經驗告訴我們接下來可能會發生什麼