<p>投資者將在 7 月 14 日上午 8:30 看到最新的通脹數據，當時勞工統計局將發佈 6 月份消費者價格指數（CPI）數據。</p>
<p>CPI 跟蹤一系列消費品和服務的價格，並作為市場通脹的關鍵指標。</p>
<p>通脹在過去五年中一直高於美聯儲 2% 的目標。今年的整體年通脹因伊朗戰爭而激增，導致油價飆升。</p>
<p>市場甚至預計美聯儲將在今年晚些時候加息，以遏制頑固的通脹。以下是明天的報告對股市的重要性。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uL2FhMzllZjQ4MTkzZGZhYmRhYjE3YzQ1NDVkNWZlNDJlMGEzM2MwMjctNzk1Mng1MzA0LmpwZz93PTc5NTImaD01MzA0JnE9NzUmYXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uL2FhMzllZjQ4MTkzZGZhYmRhYjE3YzQ1NDVkNWZlNDJlMGEzM2MwMjctNzk1Mng1MzA0LmpwZz93PTc5NTImaD01MzA0JnE9NzUmYXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmdz0zODQw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>數據可能會偏軟</h2>
<p>在 5 月份，通脹顯著上升。CPI 在該月季節性調整後增加了 0.5%，同比上漲了 4.2%。剔除波動性較大的食品和能源價格，核心 CPI 同比上漲了 2.9%。</p>
<p>在 6 月份，美國與伊朗之間的緊張局勢似乎有所緩解，雙方甚至宣佈了一項諒解備忘錄。</p>
<p>油價大幅下跌，預計將為通脹提供一些緩解。</p>
<p>“在通脹方面，儘管油價比原油更為頑固，但 6 月份仍下降了 10%，這是過去十年中第四大月度降幅，” BMO 首席經濟學家道格拉斯·波特在最近的一份研究報告中寫道，引用了 Kiplinger 的內容。“6 月份汽油價格幾乎沒有季節性調整，因此這將單獨削減整體價格的 4 個基點。”</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9925d81542bde3918f599bf94c6d75ff.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9925d81542bde3918f599bf94c6d75ff.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的美國消費者價格指數同比數據</p>
<p>克利夫蘭聯邦儲備銀行的實時預測工具預計，整體 CPI 將環比下降近 0.1%，同比上漲約 3.9%。</p>
<p>與此同時，核心 CPI 預計本月上漲 0.2，同比上漲 2.85%。</p>
<h2>市場可能的反應</h2>
<p>投資者不應過於解讀整體數字，因為經濟學家已經預計它會比 5 月份好。核心通脹更為重要，因為它受到能源和食品價格的影響較小。</p>
<p>最終，這份 CPI 報告是 7 月份下次聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議之前的最後一個主要通脹數據點。</p>
<p>截至目前，市場認為美聯儲維持利率不變的可能性為 65%。市場還押注於 9 月份加息 25 個基點，以及 2027 年 1 月份再加息 25 個基點。</p>
<p>請記住，這些概率會頻繁變化。</p>
<p>如果通脹數據如預期，FOMC 可能會在 7 月份的會議上維持利率不變。然而，如果報告顯示通脹高於預期，市場將開始考慮在美聯儲 7 月份會議上加息，這可能會引發拋售。</p>
<p>如果核心通脹低於預期，市場可能會上漲，寄希望於美聯儲不需要像預期那樣加息，甚至可能根本不加息。</p>
<p>投資者永遠不應試圖根據短期數據點進行交易，因為他們不知道數據會是什麼樣子，或者投資者會如何反應。</p>
<p>然而，瞭解可能影響市場的因素將使投資者更加冷靜，從而使他們能夠做出更理性的決策，即使這意味着對他們的投資組合什麼都不做。</p>

美國 WTI 原油 ETF

2 倍做空彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

USOI

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

美國布倫特原油期貨基金

<p>6 月消費者物價指數（CPI）數據將於 7 月 14 日發佈，這對股市至關重要，因為它是在美聯儲 7 月會議之前發佈的。儘管由於美國與伊朗關係緩和導致油價下跌，整體通脹可能會有所緩解，但核心通脹仍然是關鍵。市場預期 7 月將維持利率不變，而 9 月和 2027 年則可能加息。若核心通脹數據好於預期，可能會通過降低加息概率來提振股市，而更熱的數據則可能引發拋售</p>

<p>Investors will get their latest look at inflation when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading at 8:30 a.m. on July 14.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者將在 7 月 14 日上午 8:30 看到最新的通脹數據，當時勞工統計局將發佈 6 月份消費者價格指數（CPI）數據。</p>
</div><p>The CPI tracks the prices of a range of consumer goods and services and serves as a key gauge of inflation for the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CPI 跟蹤一系列消費品和服務的價格，並作為市場通脹的關鍵指標。</p>
</div><p>Inflation has remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target now for over five years. Headline year-over-year inflation has surged this year, due to the Iran war, which sent oil prices soaring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通脹在過去五年中一直高於美聯儲 2% 的目標。今年的整體年通脹因伊朗戰爭而激增，導致油價飆升。</p>
</div><p>The market even expects the Fed to raise interest rates later this year to rein in sticky inflation. Here’s why tomorrow’s report is a big deal for the stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場甚至預計美聯儲將在今年晚些時候加息，以遏制頑固的通脹。以下是明天的報告對股市的重要性。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uL2FhMzllZjQ4MTkzZGZhYmRhYjE3YzQ1NDVkNWZlNDJlMGEzM2MwMjctNzk1Mng1MzA0LmpwZz93PTc5NTImaD01MzA0JnE9NzUmYXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmdz0zODQw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.content.foolcdn.com%2Fimages%2F1umn9qeh%2Fproduction%2Faa39ef48193dfabdab17c4545d5fe42e0a33c027-7952x5304.jpg%3Fw%3D7952%26h%3D5304%26q%3D75%26auto%3Dformat&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The data may come in soft</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>數據可能會偏軟</h2>
</div><p>In May, inflation rose significantly. The CPI increased 0.5% seasonally adjusted during the month and was 4.2% higher year over year. Stripping out more volatile food and energy prices, core CPI was 2.9% higher year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 5 月份，通脹顯著上升。CPI 在該月季節性調整後增加了 0.5%，同比上漲了 4.2%。剔除波動性較大的食品和能源價格，核心 CPI 同比上漲了 2.9%。</p>
</div><p>During June, tensions between the U.S. and Iran appeared to de-escalate, and the two sides even announced a memorandum of understanding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 6 月份，美國與伊朗之間的緊張局勢似乎有所緩解，雙方甚至宣佈了一項諒解備忘錄。</p>
</div><p>Oil prices fell dramatically, which is expected to provide some relief from inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油價大幅下跌，預計將為通脹提供一些緩解。</p>
</div><p>&#34;On inflation, while pump prices have been stickier than crude, they still fell 10% in June, or the fourth largest monthly decline in the past decade,&#34; BMO Chief Economist Douglas Porter wrote in a recent research note, according to Kiplinger. &#34;There's not much of a seasonal adjustment in June gasoline prices, so that alone will carve 4 ticks from overall prices.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在通脹方面，儘管油價比原油更為頑固，但 6 月份仍下降了 10%，這是過去十年中第四大月度降幅，” BMO 首席經濟學家道格拉斯·波特在最近的一份研究報告中寫道，引用了 Kiplinger 的內容。“6 月份汽油價格幾乎沒有季節性調整，因此這將單獨削減整體價格的 4 個基點。”</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9925d81542bde3918f599bf94c6d75ff.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9925d81542bde3918f599bf94c6d75ff.png"/></p>
<p>US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的美國消費者價格指數同比數據</p>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Nowcasting tool expects headline CPI to fall nearly 0.1% on the month and be up about 3.9% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>克利夫蘭聯邦儲備銀行的實時預測工具預計，整體 CPI 將環比下降近 0.1%，同比上漲約 3.9%。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, core CPI is projected to rise 0.2 for the month and be up 2.85% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，核心 CPI 預計本月上漲 0.2，同比上漲 2.85%。</p>
</div><h2>How the market could respond</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市場可能的反應</h2>
</div><p>Investors should not read too much into the headline number, as economists already expect it to look better than in May. Core inflation is more important, as it is much less influenced by energy and food prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者不應過於解讀整體數字，因為經濟學家已經預計它會比 5 月份好。核心通脹更為重要，因為它受到能源和食品價格的影響較小。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, this CPI report is the last major inflation data point before the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in July.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終，這份 CPI 報告是 7 月份下次聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議之前的最後一個主要通脹數據點。</p>
</div><p>As of this writing, the market is placing a 65% likelihood that the Fed will hold rates steady. The market is also betting on a quarter-point interest rate hike in September and a second quarter-point hike in January of 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，市場認為美聯儲維持利率不變的可能性為 65%。市場還押注於 9 月份加息 25 個基點，以及 2027 年 1 月份再加息 25 個基點。</p>
</div><p>Keep in mind these odds change frequently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>請記住，這些概率會頻繁變化。</p>
</div><p>If inflation comes in as expected, the FOMC will likely hold rates steady at its July meeting. However, if the report shows higher-than-expected inflation, the market will begin to consider a rate hike at the Fed’s July meeting, which could trigger a sell-off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果通脹數據如預期，FOMC 可能會在 7 月份的會議上維持利率不變。然而，如果報告顯示通脹高於預期，市場將開始考慮在美聯儲 7 月份會議上加息，這可能會引發拋售。</p>
</div><p>If core inflation comes in lighter than expected, the market may rise on hopes that the Fed won’t need to raise interest rates as much as expected, and potentially not at all.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果核心通脹低於預期，市場可能會上漲，寄希望於美聯儲不需要像預期那樣加息，甚至可能根本不加息。</p>
</div><p>Investors should never try to trade based on a near-term data point, as they don’t know what the data will look like or how investors will react.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者永遠不應試圖根據短期數據點進行交易，因為他們不知道數據會是什麼樣子，或者投資者會如何反應。</p>
</div><p>However, understanding what could move the market will keep investors calmer, allowing them to make more rational decisions, even if that means doing nothing at all to their portfolios.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，瞭解可能影響市場的因素將使投資者更加冷靜，從而使他們能夠做出更理性的決策，即使這意味着對他們的投資組合什麼都不做。</p>
</div>

The Latest Inflation Data Will Drop on July 14. Here's Why It's a Big Deal for the Stock Market

- 6 月消費者價格指數將於 7 月 14 日發佈，用於評估通脹情況。  
- 當前通脹率超過美聯儲 2% 目標，市場預期未來可能加息。  
- 核心 CPI 數據影響更大，若低於預期可能推動市場上漲。

最新的通脹數據將於 7 月 14 日發佈。這對股市為何如此重要