Paradi Lab

South Korean humanoid supply chains will be crucial.

For the upcoming humanoid production ramp.

GS forecasts that 30% of humanoid components will come from South Korea by 2035.

Due to their automotive industry expertise translating over into producing humanoid parts like actuators.

Just for a quick tldr on actuators:
- they essentially mimic human muscles/joints
- actuators currently make up ~50% of the BOM for a humanoid.
- Korea has an advantage in actuator production since they're similar to auto parts tech e.g. power steering, braking systems and autonomous vehicle tech.

And "several Korean auto parts makers have already leveraged this know-how to gain a position among the leading non-Chinese suppliers of critical actuators for robotics." (GS)

So for upstream humanoid exposure...

It does seem like South Korea will have a massive role in being the key supplier for non-China humanoids.

On top of their crucial position in AI supply chains with memory from SK hynix and Samsung...

Helping you understand today's market sell-off:

Paradis Macro Report [June 23]:

-> KOSPI closed -9.99%:

Second worst day this year, and fifth worst ever. With SK Hynix and Samsung both down over 12%.

A few drivers:

1. MSCI kept Korea in Emerging Markets which killed the passive inflows were estimated to be $24B (UBS).

2. There was also forced deleveraging of retail leverage.

3. Profit taking mainly driven by SK Hynix overtaking Samsung's market cap (viewed as a market top).

4. Profit taking ahead of $MU earnings tomorrow.

Retail investors tried buying the dip ($5.6B), which is the largest single-day retail net buy ever. But that wasn't enough to overcome the sell off.

Looking at current volatility levels, the drawdown in Korea looks set to continue tomorrow as more retail investors are forced to unwind positions.

-> The sell-off in Korea extended into US semiconductors:

Nasdaq fell 3.2% and the SOX fell ~7.8%.

With names like $MU, $SNDK, $AAOI, and $COHR all down over 10% today.

AI stock price moves are largely memory-driven. If memory goes down, so do other AI adjacent names (usually).

However, it is crucial to remember that the memory supercycle is still in tact w/ sold-out capacity all through 2026-27. 

Plus hyperscalers forecasted to spend up to 50% of 2027 capex on memory alone as per SemiAnalysis.

-> Micron earnings tomorrow:

I'm personally expecting Micron to report sublime earnings and guidance tomorrow. 

However, do not be surprised if the market sells the report just like last quarter.

And if you've read my previous reports, you'd note that I have been firmly against using leverage for the past few weeks.

Today's events are proof.

$IQE & $TSEM enter a multi-year InP epiwafer supply agreement.

Do you understand how f*cking huge this is for IQE?

-> IQE is being designed into the pluggable wave + next-gen modulator/OCS roadmap.

-> Confirms IQE as a qualified, non-Chinese InP epiwafer source.

-> Diversifies IQE's optical customer base beyond $LITE / $MTSI to foundry in $TSEM. So multiple Tier-1 optical anchors.

Quick fun fact: IQE sued Tower in 2022 for misappropriating trade secrets to obtain patents. 

So this Tower agreement lets IQE keep optionality on RF SOI type + engineered substrate/layer transfer applications without IP risk.

And converts a former enemy into a customer - always a massive bullish signal that a company's products are critical.

Neoclouds: A Short Story

-> $NBIS: 242% YTD - "Nebius will take care of you" ( $NVDA's Jensen Huang).
-> $CRWV: 67% YTD - debt machine.
-> $IREN: 58% YTD - excessive dilution.

Nebius will become a $100B company in Q3. 

Stock Ratings [June 7th]:

On current AI sector crash. Explanations below.

Strong Buy:
$GOOGL 
$MU 
$SNDK 
SK Hynix

Buy:
$AMZN 
$AEHR 
$AAOI  
$CIEN 
$COHR 
$CRDO 
$DELL 
$FN 
$FORM 
$GLW 
$JBL 
$LITE 
$MDB 
$MRVL 
$MSFT 
$NBIS 
$NOW 
$NVDA  
$RDDT 
$RKLB 
$SIVE 

Hold:
$ARM 
$ASML 
$AVGO 
$AXTI 
$BE 
$META 
$MTSI 
$PLTR 
$SOFI 

Avoid:
$CBRS 
$CRWV 
$ETH
$HIMS 
$IBIT / $BTC
$IREN 
$MELI 
$SNAP
$TSLA 
$SPCX (SpaceX) IPO

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Thoughts:

Strong Buy:

GOOGL - $85B raise is dilutive but they actually have ROI on their capex. Tbh, they'll probably always be a Strong Buy for me. Just the cleanest AI ROI among all the megacaps.

MU / SNDK / SK Hynix - If you're not bullish on memory, then idk for you.

Buy:

AMZN - Mainly for AWS reacceleration + Trainium. But some tension comparing AWS growth (+17%) vs Azure (+31%). Feel like custom silicon + distribution combo is durable even if growth rate lags a bit.

AEHR - H2 ramp in WLBI/PLBI systems coming, anchored by "significant" follow-on Sonoma order from lead hyperscale customer. Just need to wait a bit esp. for rev to inflect. But AI ASIC burb in is mandatory as device power goes up.

AAOI - Q3 capacity ramp (via facility expansion in Texas) toward 650k+ 800G/1.6T units/mth. Capacity coming online is the catalyst imo along w/ already known laser bottleneck + Made in US premiums.

CIEN - Just a high quality biz that got pounded last week (-22%). Beat + raise earnings, but stock dropping this much is an overreaction. CEO even said demand is "structural, multi year and AI-driven" shown by AI-driven DCI being their fastest growing part of the order book as new  long-haul routes get built for latency and bandwidth.

COHR - upcoming CPO ramp (Nvidia spectrum-x) will speed things up, these prices will look cheap when we look back imo. 

CRDO - Personally bought a ton last week post-earnings drop. Like Ciena, v. high quality compounding hold through the whole AI supercycle. Crazy high margins. Obviously compete w/ Marvell/Broadcom on SerDes, but also need to factor in the 1.6T switch replacement cycle into late 2026.

DELL - Trump effect. I've learnt my lesson and will listen to him next time.

FN - v. low drama way to ride transceiver demand + iPronics sipho line for cpo. New datacom wins also extending into next FY, although some Nvidia conc. risks. Put them in Buy just to be generous as was unsure tbh.

FORM - Important for HBM, adv packaging and CPO for higher yields. Foundry test intensity only set to increase w/ production.

GLW - Lead glass core substrates which are an advanced packaging bottleneck. LTP w/ Nvidia to expand US optical manufacturing for AI infra too.

JBL - Stock has done nothing for a month, but earnings coming up could be a nice catalyst for a push higher from their DC infra segment growing + outpacing drag from legacy mobility/ev exposure / margin mix.

LITE - CPO ramp + Nvidia qualification like Coherent.

MDB - AI is not replacing them. Imo they win vs. bolt on vector stores since their architecture is so simple.

MRVL - going to $1T according to Jensen. Underlying business is solid though esp. w/ Celestial acquisition for photonics. SPY inclusion last week too is a big positive.

MSFT - Current valuations are a joke tbh, markets probs punishing some margin compression. Rev +18%, Azure +40%, AI run rate +123%. So, v. clear enterprise monetisation path. Will be buying next week in retirement account.

NBIS - Best neocloud by far. They're a $100B biz vs. ~$57B currently. Jensen: "Nebius will take care of you." 

NOW - AI is not replacing them. No enterprise CEO/CTO is dumb enough to offboard them at this point.

NVDA - Same as Microsoft. Been buying this whole time, but am now even more confused at current cheap valuations.

RDDT - AI is not replacing them. Cash printer. ARPUs improving also in legacy segments like international. 

RKLB - #2 in commercial launch after SpaceX + their IPO should re-rate the entire space comp set where RKLB is the main liquid proxy. Unbelievable earnings also, just executing so well rn.

SIVE - everyone on X knows at this point? 

Hold:

ARM - current valuation prices in flawless execution imo. But their IP is growing in DC CPUs e.g. Nvidia grace, AWS Graviton etc. 

ASML - Elon said yesterday: "ASML should be treasured and supported. It is arguably the greatest company in Europe." - I agree. Also Terafab fireside chat next week High-NA EUV is the next leg, locking in the roadmap through the decade. Could also be a "Buy" for more risk averse people.

AVGO - CEO didn't raise >$100B FY27 target + flagged that Google will multi-source. Current AI mix is also diluting margins slightly. Just needed a pullback before the thesis starts working again.

AXTI - InP substrate bottleneck, crucial for AI buildout rn. Could also buy rn, just a slow dca since they've run up a ton already + raise completed ($632M) to 2x InP capacity.

BE - SOFC winner imo (Ceres 2nd). Don't think it's a buy just yet due to some valuation vs. profitability gaps.

META - hold based on capital allocation mainly. Market seems wary of the ROI on their AI capex hence the continuous dips. Also potential raise to fund capex like Google too - once that digests, I'll personally look to buy.

MTSI - Big fan of their investment into $IQE since it de-risks operations a lot, but just think COHR/LITE are better options for 800G/1.6T transition. 

PLTR - Relatively poor Risk:Reward at current multiples.

SOFI - rate sensitivity. Loan book + credit performance carry macro risk which caps conviction rn. Some positives though w/ young + growing member base. Would need to look at credit trends + Fed path in June FOMC to re-assess.

Avoid:

CBRS - avoid at current prices. Would want it to come down closer to ~$40B mc before I look to dca. Would love to hold since they own genuinely unique tech.

CRWV / IREN - Financing for both is a mess...debt/dilution. Nebius are just a better multi yr neocloud.

HIMS - Forced out of higher margin GLP1s into lower margin braded GLPs from Novo/Lilly. Feel like their moat was to do w/ regulatory arbitrage on compounding. With that gone, it's a customer acquisition + churn biz buying branded drugs at lower margin.

IBIT / BTC - Macro setup is hostile. Higher rates for longer (10Y ~4.54%, 30Y >5%) raise opportunity cost. Pure liquidity/risk appetite instrument + both are tight rn.

ETH - same as bitcoin.

MELI - personally a little confused - either a hold/avoid. Seeing some margin compression via their credit book growing faster than revenues. Talks of margin recovery next year, at which point the stock could re-rate.

SNAP - Absolute worst social media app + CEO is a weirdo. Platform keeps losing share to Meta/Tiktok.

TSLA - Huge competition from other EV makers shown by production > deliveries volumes. Humanoids will be their next key growth driver, just a little while away.

SPCX (SpaceX) IPO: I never personally participate in IPOs + SpaceX specifically is way too overvalued for me. Will be going long eventually though. Rough ballpark would be ~$1.5T if it gets there post IPO.

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Just for very high level notes at current stock prices  (NFA).

I'm personally staying long despite the current macro backdrop, mainly in AI supercycle names e.g. memory, semis etc.

But then you also have great companies at depressed prices, mainly in SaaS which I'm DCA'ing currently.

I don't hold positions in all of these names. This is just a subset that overlaps my "Close Tracking" list + X's favourite names.

China's control over InP exports threatens AI data centre rollout (Reuters).

With 70%+ control over global output.

Just as a reminder on beneficiaries:
-> JX Advanced Metals: ~10% InP share
-> $AXTI: InP >50% Q1'26 rev
-> $LITE: maybe the cleanest large cap beneficiary
-> $COHR: ~1 yr early to 6-inch InP production
-> $IQE: InP is "material growth driver throughout 2026 and beyond"

Sumitomo Electric win in non-Chinese InP but they're so huge that InP revenue is basically a rounding error to them.

Personally treating $AXTI as a trading vehicle separately to my core hold rn after taking decent profits over the past few weeks.

As core holds, I have preference to $LITE / $COHR / $IQE over $AXTI for InP-thematic exposure w/ less regulator risks. 

- $LITE for lower China supply beta.
- $COHR for higher InP permit torque if u want it.
- $IQE for the most asymmetry

Market is selling off all the SpaceX $SPCX proxies:> $SPCE -24%> $ASTS -12%> $FLY -11%> $RKLB -9%> $RDW -9%Liquidity drain from the space proxies & huge capital flows into the market leader.Short-term buying opportunity for Rocket Lab imo while SpaceX finds its feet over the coming days and weeks.

I don't like or dislike $SIVE:

The information discovery edge & forward bull narrative has been priced in:

Where Sivers makes a genuinely necessary component, InP external lasers that silicon can't replace, w/ four legit AI design-ins:

1. Ayar light source
2. $GFS reference design
3. $POET Optical Interposer ELS
4. $JBL 1.6T LRO pluggable module

That is the true, defensible bull case + it's not a mirage.

Further highlighted by: 

- JP Morgan disclosed a ~5% stake
- index inclusions have happened
- multiple analysts now publish

But now:

You're essentially betting on Sivers' conversion.

I.e. will the design-ins turn into qualified volume revenue, and when?

The same story has repeated itself with hundreds of growth names over the years - $NVDA, $PLTR and early $GOOGL etc.

Sivers aren't an early stage start-up, and management have acknowledged huge, growing interest in the company now.

So the pressure should be on them to deliver volume ramps in accordance with widely porported timelines of 2027-2028.

Another collaboration announcement like $GFS wouldn't signal that, but it could definitely lead to another re-rate higher given their tiny MC.

But ideally, at some point soon, you do wanna see some sort of POs etc that confirms their $799M "opportunity" pipeline. 

No idea when that happens given all the conflicting info this week on CPO timelines (SemiAnalysis, MS etc). 

Imo, it's turned into a waiting game for Ayar / $JBL / $MRVL - which then go to ship to end customers like $AMD / $MSFT / $AMZN.

And what % of the TAM Sivers can secure given they all multi-source laser supply from other places like $COHR or $MTSI or $LITE - who are known to have laser shortages.

Will continue to hold my position - don't see any point in liquidating large % gains rn.

TLDR of my “recovery” trades:

Including some new trades from last week, if anyone was interested.

In order of concentration:

1. $CRDO ($190) - that 18% dip after earnings was such an obvious buy-point.

2. $NOK ($14) - started a sizeable position on Thursday's market close. Not sure why they're down 20%?

3. $RDDT ($150) - will add more soon.

4. $QCOM ($148) - pre-earnings trade from April that I still hold.

5. $CIEN ($488) - opened a position on the dip after their earnings report a couple weeks ago. Keeps dipping though lol.

6. $NOW ($102) - what on earth was that SaaS fake pump at the end of May? Down around 7% and plan to DCA in pre-specified tranches if it keeps dipping. Long-term hold for me for when quality SaaS makes a resurgence one day.

7. $FN ($570) - started a position last week, 20% dip seems aggressive on quite impressive earnings + outlook.

8. $NFLX ($77) - started the position on Thursday market close. A 40% dip in the past year is mental.

9. $BTC ($63k) - not a crypto bull/expert at all, it's just a fun trade to see what happens. Will be the first to go if I need to raise cash.

As of right now, most could easily turn into longer-term holds.

How to Grow an Investing Account (without getting lucky)

I have 4 core principles:

1. Themes
2. Conviction
3. Concentration
4. DCA

-> 1. Themes

Follow the hot sectors at any given point in time.

- Which sectors are spending the most money? 
- Which areas are governments supporting most? 
- Which direction is the world going in?

Stock prices are forward looking and reflect future earnings. 

So, which companies will grow earnings fastest? 

Over the last ~decade, it was software adjacent tech like $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META, $PLTR.

Before that it was sectors like energy and banking.

Currently it's the AI supercycle, tracing Mag7 capex spend down the supply chain into sectors like photonics and memory.

In 2035, it could well be a space related supercycle e.g. a sector made up of companies building data centers on the moon.

-> 2. Conviction

Step 1 is easy.

This step is the hardest, but most important.

You need to do your own research to build conviction in the theme, sector and company. 

Without conviction, this whole investing process I'm outlining becomes pointless.

The absolute simplest way to "research" is to read what analysts/researchers write. This is the bare minimum you should be doing.

The ramp up in your knowledge will be exponential.

Don't copy trade - AI is there if something in a tweet or article doesn't make sense to you. 

Ultimately, you want to understand a company (and the investing thesis) where you're able to explain:
1. What they do
2. Why they matter

In 2 or 3 sentences, without using jargon.

First-principles thinking to get down to the true roots of the company.

If you believe in the company's story after doing all this - that's conviction.

And prevents you from selling out of positions too soon.

-> 3. Concentration

You're not getting rich and compound capital fast enough by investing in $SPY and having a small tilt towards $QQQ.

But you also don't want to full-port a high beta name like $SNDK or $AAOI where your portfolio gets trashed if the stock goes down 20% in a day.

If under ~£250k, the approach I recommend is picking 5-6 "high growth" names of varying beta.

For example:

40%: $MU + $SIVE: for high beta AI
40%: $MRVL + $GLW: for mid tier AI beta
20%: $GOOGL + $NVDA: for AI compounders

It's enough concentration so you see genuine % gains in your portfolio if any stock makes a big move up.

With some stability so you don't get ruined if a name drops hard for any reason.

Again, if you have conviction, you wouldn't sell on any dips since you'd have high confidence in the business.

-> 4. DCA

This part is entirely dependent on personal risk tolerance.

But generally, lump-summing into positions is not my preferred approach. 

It can work though if you've done steps 1-3 properly and don't panic sell.

You're never going to perfectly call bottoms, so having some allocated capital spare to avg. down is a good idea.

Then DCA up when conviction in a company's story grows.

E.g. product qualifications, earnings beats, expanding deals/pipeline.

Assuming I have $1k for a position, I like to do something like:

1. $300 to initiate a position after a quick burst of research.

2. More detailed research over a few days/weeks i.e. Step 2 above: Conviction.

3. $300 if I build more conviction via deeper research.

4. $400 DCA over a few more weeks/months to build the position out on any dips.

The one caveat with this method is that you're never going to have the "best" avg. price.

But it helps build even more confidence in the trade.

Which is the ultimate goal with long-term investing.

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The post's title was inspired by @naval's viral thread on How To Get Rich (Without Getting Lucky) - potentially greatest thread ever made. I read it a couple of times per year at least.

Analysis & Signals on $SIVE x $JBL Earnings (tomorrow):

Reminder: Sivers announced a collaboration with Jabil (Apr 26) to develop a 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver for AI data centers.

Jabil's AI numbers are a leading indicator of the end demand that sizes Sivers' TAM, with their 1.6T LRO program as a direct demand channel for Sivers' DFB lasers.

Key signals from $JBL's earnings that reinforce $SIVE's bull thesis:

1. 1.6T LRO transceiver program + ramp timing into 2027
2. TAM expansion via raising FY2026 AI revenue
3. Commentary on optical component/laser supply tightness (links to InP scarcity tailwind)

TLDR on each point:

1. 1.6T transceiver program

1.6T / SiPho / CPO commentary has the highest impact on Sivers directly.

Jabil usually highlight ramp timings etc, so even something like "1.6T pipeline strong / photonics scaling" reinforces the program's commercial trajectory.

Which in turn would be positive read-through for Sivers' tech.

Ofc, Jabil are unlikely to name a component supplier on an earnings call, and has many optical irons in the fire like its own $INTC derived SiPho, CPO, NPO.

And just as a caveat: Jabil thriving in optics does not require Sivers to win...Jabil could source lasers elsewhere or lean on internal/SiPho content.

2. TAM expansion

AI durability / 2027 framing will frame Sivers' own timing. 

Sivers' photonics ramp is mainly a 2027+ story, where management say "multiple ramps on track for 2027".

Jabil's Q2 call already flagged: 
- A second hyperscaler ramping in Mexico
- A third in discussions
- A margin-expansion/growth setup for FY2027

So continued confident 2027 framing directly supports Sivers' conversion window. 

3. Commentary on optical component/laser supply tightness

Jabil flagged memory (DDR4 and below) + PCB constraints at Q2. 

Any commentary on optical component or laser tightness would corroborate the InP-scarcity tailwind that is central to the Sivers "structural chokepoint" thesis.

E.g. $NVDA has pushed laser lead-times past 2027 + InP is constrained which supports Sivers' InP laser scarcity tailwind.

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Just as a high level summary on the most impactful read-throughs for Sivers.

Where Jabil's earnings tomorrow can prove that optical/AI TAM is growing via their photonics/1.6T efforts.

However, it cannot prove that Sivers wins volume against vertically integrated rivals like $COHR / $LITE, or the dollar value / margin of Sivers' content.

That is the point I've been highlighting for a while....management execution and deal flow.

Ultimately, the Jabil program is a pluggable (LRO) play for the near-term, high-volume architecture for Sivers. 

With Sivers' CPO exposure running mainly through Ayar Labs, $GFS, $POET, and O-Net/Enablence.