Duolingo

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Dolphin Research

DUOL: DAU Re-Accelerates; When Will Monetization Catch Up?

$Duolingo(DUOL.US) Q3 results were broadly in line, and signs of an operating inflection are emerging. These warrant attention.

User growth continued to rebound. Q3 DAU reached 64.9 mn, with DAU growth of 29% YoY vs. 23% in the prior quarter.

The main goal for 2026 is to turn user growth around, and progress so far looks solid. APAC saw strong growth after localization, while North America resumed growth from Q2 after adjustments to the Green Machine tests.

Subscription penetration held at 9.4%. Subscribers posted QoQ net adds of 0.4 mn...

13:40 duolingo duolingo Learn a language for free. Forever.
DUOL DAU Trend DAU 一 yoy 80 illions c 80% 62.4%62.1%62.4% 65.0% 59.3% n iResearc
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (10%) Jan-22 Source: Sensor Tower. May-22 Sep-22
90% 70% 50% 30% 10% (10%) Jan-22 May-22 Source: Sensor Tower. Sep-22 Jan-23 Figu+9
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Dolphin Research

DUOL (Trans): DAUs keep accelerating; pivot to monetization next year

Q3 DAU YoY growth accelerated to 29% from 23% in Q2, and Q4 bookings growth guidance is +13%, slightly above prior guidance.

However, the second tranche of user growth incentives and the full rollout of Video Call will leave Q4 Adj. EBITDA roughly flat YoY at about $84 mn. Meanwhile, the company sunset 'Max' and plans to ramp monetization next year without adding friction to the free experience.

duolingo 多邻国
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Dolphin Research

DUOL (Trans): DAU +23%, Max plan may be discontinued

Q2 DAU rose 23% YoY, with growth accelerating vs. Q1. The full-year Adj. EBITDA margin target was raised to 26.5% from 25%.

Bookings and revenue guidance ranges were unchanged. Q3 bookings growth is only 9%.

Leveraging open-source models, the company cut video-call cost per session from $0.30 to below $0.01 and rolled the feature down to Super users. The Max tier faces caps or a potential sunset.

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Dolphin Research

DUOL: Inching Ahead, the Comeback Won't Be Easy

As the first quarter under the new strategy, and against muted expectations, $多邻国 (DUOL.US) delivered broadly in-line Q1 results. Management kept FY guidance cautious, seemingly to retain flexibility.

This includes lowering Max pricing and anticipating AI costs to compress GPM, a trajectory not favored by subscription-focused investors. The stance runs counter to funds that prefer steady, premium subscription pricing.

1) New strategy rolling out cautiously: The 2026 plan, repeatedly emphasized over the last two quarters, to sacrifice near-term monetization to restore healthy user growth is now being executed. Execution is paced deliberately...

duolingo
Duolingo (DUOL) Earnings wrap $millions 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25
DUOL MAU Trend MAU yoy millions 160 arch 60% 49.7% 140 47.6% oe 47.1% 45.6% 50%
DUOL User engagement trend millions 60 nResearch DAU DAU/MA6% 41.0% 45% 3 .6% 37+11
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Dolphin Research

DUOL: Guidance bombs again; is the Green Owl now 'Dead Duo'? ---

$Duolingo(DUOL.US) reported Q4 FY2025 results after market close on Feb. 26 (ET), another guidance bomb.

Specifically:

1) Guidance collapsed — genuine weakness or sandbagging?

Starting with guidance, management projects Q1 bookings growth of only 11%, with full-year growth at 10–12%.

Versus 33% in 2025, this is clearly more than a natural slowdown.

Meanwhile, EBITDA margin guidance is below expectations, even down 400bps vs. 2025...

duolingo
6N'caT ' 19% ' 27%26%25% 6% ' WN'>OZ N'tO (5%) N'>oZ bN'aD 30% 3% 34% (2%) 40% 9
Duolingo(DUOL) Earnings wrap $millions 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1
DUOL MAU Trend millions MAU yoy 160 xC 60% 49.7% e0 140 47.6% 47.1% 45.6% Resear+8
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Dolphin Research

Duolingo (Minutes): Many future opportunities, actively focusing on DAU expansion

The following are the 3Q25 earnings call minutes of $Duolingo(DUOL.US) organized by Dolphin Research. For financial report interpretation, please refer to "Duolingo: Weak Guidance + Uncertainty of Short-term Changes, the Green Bird Falls from the High Valuation Altar." I. Key Financial Indicators II. Management Report We achieved excellent results in the third quarter, with all indicators performing steadily. This year, we are expected to create outstanding results once again. Currently, more than 50 million people use Duolingo daily. We expect user registrations to reach nearly 1.2 billion this year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33%...

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Duolingo(DUOL) Earnings wrap $millions 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 c
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Dolphin Research

Duolingo: Weak Guidance + Uncertainty of Short-term Changes, Green Bird Falls from High Valuation Pedestal

$Duolingo(DUOL.US) released its third-quarter 2025 earnings after the market closed on November 5th, Eastern Time. Due to fourth-quarter guidance falling short of expectations (implying a significant slowdown in growth), the company simultaneously stated its intention to make new investments and product changes from a long-term perspective. The core focus shifted from more direct monetization and profit-related metrics (such as paid rate and EBITDA margin improvement pace) to user growth across the ecosystem (MAU, DAU), leading to market uncertainty regarding future monetization performance growth. Following Duolingo's earnings release, the stock price fell by over 20%...

duolingo
2030e Base Bull Bear Avg.MAU 213 252 186 Avg, DAU 83 104 67 DAU/MAU 39% 41% 36%
N'O O 19%17% bN'aob hN'3 (0%) 26% N'-3 (2%) 33% N'c3T LONGPORT 39% 5% 34% (4%) N
Duolingo(DUOL) Earnings wrap $millions 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 c+10
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Dolphin Research

Duolingo (Minutes): Adjusting Strategy to Mitigate AI Public Opinion Impact

The following is a summary of the Q2 2025 earnings call for $Duolingo(DUOL.US) organized by Dolphin Research. For an interpretation of the earnings report, please refer to the article "Duolingo: User Growth Under Pressure, High Ecosystem Stickiness Alleviates Monetization Concerns."

1. Overview of Financial Metrics

2. Q&A

Q: The daily active user (DAU) growth in the second quarter was strong but showed some deceleration. What were the main driving factors behind this, and how does the company view the user growth trend for the full year and the second half of the year?

A: The DAU in the second quarter increased by 40% year-over-year, which is within the guidance range of 40%-45%, although slightly below expectations...

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Duolingo (DUOL)I Earnings wrap $millions 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 cons