Stock Live Trading P218: Alas, white hair grows

While washing my face, I discovered an extra white hair on my temple. I plucked it out and rubbed it repeatedly in my hand, filled with complex emotions.

Not yet reaching the age of thirty, white hair has already appeared. Thinking about these years of stock trading—turbulent, with day and night reversed, staying up until 3 or 4 AM daily, experiencing intense stress, great sorrow, and great joy, cholesterol levels soaring—it all ended in such a bleak outcome. Probably the only thing in the world where effort and reward are not proportional is stock trading. What can stock trading bring? For most people, it brings empty pockets and a prematurely aged appearance. The lucky ones are a tiny minority, but everyone thinks they are one, ultimately becoming the harvested chives.
 

Although I've only been trading stocks for four or five years, I've been in the investment circle for a full decade. I dabbled in P2P, fishing games, check-ins, and Niu Niu back in the day. How many people can truly get out? Countless people lost their family fortunes, their jobs, their wives, their children, yet they can't let go and persist in gambling. Isn't the stock market just another form of gambling? Once you enter the stock market, it's like a deep sea; you get your energy and spirit sucked away without even realizing it, enslaved and alienated by stocks.
 

When I was on the shore, I often thought the people underwater were stupid. Clearly, they could quit gambling, repay debts through work, and live a normal life. But it wasn't until I went deep underwater myself that I understood them. People can't truly empathize. When I was struggling in the water, I realized how laughable my previous advice was. Now, when faced with others' advice, I also turn a deaf ear. At this point, I am no longer me, at least not the me I was before.
I've already gambled away half my life. How could I possibly quit now? There are only two outcomes: either I die, or I recoup my losses, overflowing with profits. There is no third state. This is the result of my calm and careful consideration.

In previous years, with sector rotation and the high-dividend battlefield, I chased hot spots by hitting the daily limit. Now it's extreme global clustering: only memory, optics, and semiconductors in US stocks, only tech in A-shares, and semiconductors in Korea too. Other sectors have fallen apart. Many US software and consumer companies have already fallen to valuations from years ago, while semiconductors can multiply fivefold. The same logic applies to A-shares. The prices of many blue-chip and white-horse stocks are already cheaper than during the stock market crash years ago. Do you think this is normal? Auto stocks keep hitting new lows, mall stocks keep hitting new lows, baijiu, rental companies keep hitting new lows, giants like Pinduoduo, JD.com, and Meituan also hit new lows. No matter your revenue, no matter your cash flow, if you're not on the AI and semiconductor bandwagon, you will fall. Actually, this also shows everyone is pessimistic about the future, believing things will only get worse. Is this logic wrong?
 

Capital is finite. The crazy surge in sectors like semiconductors is actually the result of capital being siphoned from other sectors. Me buying "old man" stocks is equivalent to shorting them. This process is excruciating. At the very least, value investing this year is a complete joke.
But looking at it from another angle, this is also the prelude to a global stock market crash. The whole world is playing a game of musical chairs. Everyone in the world is a gambler, and the market is still rewarding gamblers and punishing those who don't gamble. There's only one final outcome: the bubble bursts, semiconductors plummet 90%, 3x long semiconductor ETFs go to zero. 2x Micron, 2x SanDisk go to zero. This is 100% certain to happen in the future; I'm just not sure which day.
 

Half a year ago, people were already talking about Micron and SanDisk in my comment section. Now, half a year later, they're still talking about Micron and SanDisk. One of these stocks has multiplied 5 times, the other 10 times. Half a year ago, they were already at high levels; half a year later, they've already stepped on each other's feet into outer space (some are even shouting 2000, 3000, thinking they can cross the galaxy). When Micron was at 300, it had already overdrawn its gains for the next few years. Now at 1000, it must have priced in its gains for this lifetime, right? They all say there's a memory shortage now. A memory shortage for a century? I don't believe it. I don't see the use of this stuff. As someone holding a decade-old laptop, someone who hadn't heard of Hynix, Micron, or SanDisk, I don't think these things can change life.

Trump Coin, Pop Mart, Xiaomi, XPeng, Bitcoin—when they were glorious, wasn't there also a crowd hyping them, saying they were going to the stars? Once they quieted down, the shills disappeared. The interesting thing about history is that people never learn from it. They always think this time is different, but in reality, it's the same every time. In fact, A-shares are still the same A-shares; they've just formed clusters, and the index has gone up. The game of musical chairs is still the game of musical chairs. Stablecoins ultimately didn't go to the stars, hovering around 100. NVIDIA's "favorite child" also didn't catch NVIDIA's ride, remaining lukewarm around 100. After the dust settles and time washes over it, everything must return to reality. Before that, please, everyone, enjoy the bubble.