Fed 99.4% Chance of Holding Rates Steady in June, 93% in July

Summary

CME FedWatch data shows a 99.4% probability of the Fed maintaining rates in June and a 93% probability for July 钛媒体快讯. This reflects a sharp pivot from earlier expectations of rate cuts to a consensus of a prolonged pause, with some officials even suggesting potential hikes if inflation persists QQ News+ 3.

Impact Analysis

So, the market has finally thrown in the towel on the ‘imminent cut’ narrative. We’re looking at a near-certain pause in June and July 钛媒体快讯, but the real signal is the hawkish creep in the tail risk. Remember when we were debating 25 or 50 bps cuts? Now, the 6.9% probability of a hike by July 钛媒体快讯 and Governor Cook’s readiness to tighten further if disinflation stalls Tip Ranks+ 2 show the Fed is successfully re-anchoring expectations.

Institutional heavyweights like Goldman and BofA are now pushing cut forecasts into late 2026 AASTOCKS News, suggesting the ‘higher for longer’ regime isn’t just a mantra—it’s the baseline. The market might still be mispricing the sheer duration of this plateau. I’d be wary of growth stocks priced for a liquidity pivot that isn’t coming. The play here is to stay lean on duration and look for quality names that can self-fund in a 5%+ world. The ‘pivot’ trade is dead for now; it’s all about the carry.