CME Data Shows 97% Probability Fed Will Hold Rates Steady in June

Summary

As of June 8, 2026, CME FedWatch data indicates a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in June, with only a 3% chance of a cut Golden Finance. For the July meeting, the probability of holding steady drops to 81.9%, while the likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike stands at 15.5% .

Impact Analysis

So the market has basically written off any action for June, with FedWatch pricing a near-certain 97% hold Golden Finance. But the real story is the ‘tail’ in July—that 15.5% chance of a hike is the ghost in the room . It shows investors aren’t fully buying the ‘temporary shock’ narrative we saw in May InvestorPlace.

What’s interesting is the disconnect at CME Group itself. They just hit record May volumes of 33.2 million contracts StockTitan, yet the stock has been lagging the broader market and trading well below its 52-week high MarketWatch Automated+ 2. Some models even suggest it’s still overvalued at these levels Simplywall.

Bottom line: The market is in a defensive crouch. We’re seeing a ‘higher for longer’ consensus that’s keeping a lid on CME’s valuation despite massive trading activity. If that July hike probability starts to bleed out on softer CPI data, look for a relief rally in duration-sensitive names, but stay cautious on CME until the valuation gap closes.