joker2018～11

intel up 160% ytd and reports the 23rd. this is basically a bet on whether 18A yields are real and if they land a foundry customer. wild that the most hated chip name became the momentum trade. small punt with a tight stop, anyone else in?

i'm long memory but i'm not buying $Micron Tech(MU.US) today. the CXMT 8.6 billion IPO is a real signal China is throwing money at DRAM capacity, and when supply fears hit a crowded trade, the flush isn't over in one session. structural story intact, but i want to see it base before adding. trimmed into the recent spike and holding cash for a lower entry.

the memory dump isn't just profit-taking imo. the real worry on $Micron Tech(MU.US) and the group is bargaining power, once the AI giants lock in long-term HBM contracts, the makers lose the spot-pricing leverage that drove this whole melt-up. demand stays, margin capture shifts to the buyers. i trimmed into the +27% spike and i'm glad. watching TSMC today before doing anything.

the thing that flipped memory wasn't vibes, it was Barclays initiating $Micron Tech(MU.US) peer SK Hynix at Overweight plus Korea dropping a $531B national AI budget. governments are now funding the memory buildout directly. that's a different level of demand signal. i'm long the whole complex and this week just proved the bear case was a sentiment story. holding.

memory getting wrecked again and i keep hearing "golden pit". maybe. but $Micron Tech(MU.US) broke $1000 the same week SK Hynix fell 15% in Korea, and CPI plus five bank earnings land tonight. that's a lot of falling knives at once. i trimmed into the last bounce and i'm sitting in cash waiting for the CPI dust to settle before touching memory.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) sitting around 979, consolidating after the bear-market round trip, while SK Hynix debuts +14% and says memory's undersupplied till 2030. the read-through is obvious, Micron is the cheapest large HBM play in the US. i held my core through the panic, cost basis 1050. adding on pullbacks into the CPI-week volatility, not chasing.

the $Micron Tech(MU.US) bounce is real but China getting cleared to buy H200s cuts both ways. yes it means AI demand is expanding, but it also means Nvidia keeps the pricing power, not the memory makers directly. i'm long memory but keeping a stop under this rally. chips ripping while a war's still on smells a little like complacency.

watching $Micron Tech(MU.US) closely here. it stopped falling but the Fed minutes literally flagged AI capex as an inflation risk, which is a slow structural headwind nobody's pricing. i trimmed into the bounce last week and i'm keeping the core only. want to see how memory trades after SK Hynix lists Friday before i touch it again.

the real story today isn't Samsung, it's the DeepSeek in-house chip report. if China designs around Nvidia and the memory makers, that's a structural demand question for $Micron Tech(MU.US), not a cycle timing one. i trimmed a little into the bounce last week and i'm glad. not touching memory until this DeepSeek thing gets clearer.

Burry disclosing a $Micron Tech(MU.US) short and calling it a bubble is peak 2026 lol. same guy has been short this entire rally. memory down 11% in two days is a gift if you actually believe HBM stays sold out. i'm not dumping my core because a legendary bear filed a 13F. holding.

lol they're suing the memory makers for price fixing because DRAM got too expensive. peak bull market energy honestly. a class action doesn't unsell a single HBM stack. $Micron Tech(MU.US) down 8% today just means the discount window is open for a bit 😏

intel went from being left for dead to the hottest meme on one trump post. the stock market is just vibes with extra steps at this point 😂

SanDisk and the whole memory complex taking a breather. i hold it as a cyclical, so i expect these swings and just ride the upcycle 🪙

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed slightly higher, while the Nasdaq Composite fell about 1.2%, and the Russell 2000 bucked the trend, rising about 0.5%.

Yesterday's market style resembled a phase of rotation—funds marginally flowed out of highly concentrated large-cap tech stocks.

The most important trigger was Nvidia. Nvidia's earnings and guidance were generally very strong, but its stock price weakened after Thursday's opening, ultimately closing down more than 5%. This is more like a typical "profit-taking/crowded trading rebalancing" scenario than a fundamental reversal.

For long-term holders, it's necessary to distinguish between two levels: whether industry trends have changed vs. whether the short-term funding structure is overly crowded.

This pullback is more like a rebalancing of funds: on the one hand, retail trading activity increased significantly after the earnings report; Vanda Research data shows that after the earnings release, net retail buying of Nvidia hit a new high since 2012; on the other hand, some institutions chose to lock in profits and reduce concentration amid high expectations, and the market is also recalibrating the alignment between valuation and growth.

On that day, the "Big Tech/AI Chain" underperformed the rest of the market, indicating that short-term pressure stemmed more from market concentration and expectations than from a sudden deterioration in industry logic. The next stage requires observation: whether funds will flow back to high-quality leading stocks after the pullback, or whether they will continue to spread to sectors like finance, value, and small-caps.

For me, I don't dwell on "why the market fell despite such good earnings reports," I only do one thing: use my budget to buy within a reasonable range. In short, my orders are already placed; I'll buy when the price drops.

This is personal thought, not investment advice.

$Pro Ultr Silver(AGQ.US) up 16% yesterday to $159.10, volume spiking to 7.1M . This 2x leveraged silver ETF is not for the faint hearted - 52-week range from $31.88 to $431.47 tells you everything . When silver moves, AGQ moves double. Holding through this volatility because the structural deficit narrative intact. 🚀

The lawsuits are getting serious now. Multiple securities fraud class actions over AI spending disclosures . When lawyers circle like this, usually means someone messed up the messaging. But the business itself still solid? $Oracle(ORCL.US)

Nova Lake delayed to after CES 2027. Stock down 1.1% to $43.63 on 56M volume . Market reacting like this is new news. But everyone knew $Intel(INTC.US) roadmap was aggressive. Sell the rumor, buy the fact?

$Unitedhealth(UNH.US) closed at 284.37 yesterday, +1.96% but volume exploded 98% to 3.48B . 52-week range 230-599, down 46% in a year. CMS rate hike 0.09% vs expected 4-6%. First revenue decline since 1989 coming in 2026. Market says value trap. I say 15x forward PE prices in the worst. 📉

Spotted a huge block trade for 9988.HK this afternoon - 390k shares at HKD 154.6, a 2.5% discount. Around HKD 60 mil. Not auto-matched. Meanwhile, $Alibaba(BABA.US) options went crazy yesterday, some puts surged 2799% on a 3% drop. Big money moving or just hedging? What's the smart money seeing that we don't? 🧐

$Intel(INTC.US) still feels like a comeback bet — 18A process + AI PC narrative getting attention again, but volatility damn high.😅

DJT swings like crazy😭

$Coinbase(COIN.US) Feels like COIN is stuck between Bitcoin price action and regulatory headlines. Hard to size a position when sentiment flips this fast every week.