LazyCat

There is increasing chance of a rate hike towards the end of the year and this would be a headwind for the S-REIT sector. For investors holding them for income, it is a case of the boat coming back for them to load up again.

@Bridge Buzz SG

What happened to AVGO is not an isolated case and it is becoming a norm for outperformance to be a catalyst for a post-earnings rally. The market has already priced in their lavish expectations and these recent earnings just played out the expected without further surprises. As long as the expectations cannot be extended further, folks may choose to lock in their gain and rotate out their funds since further upside may be capped. So what does this mean? Could it be that the narrative driven euphoria is ending and a more grounded revaluation will happen any time given the macro and geopolitics are tensed now?

All the excitement about the largest IPO in history.... SpaceX's narrative drives the hype and I'm sure many will FOMO to buy. I'm clueless about their business model and hence I'll just watch from the sidelines. Good luck to the blast off to moon though.

$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S(HST.SG)

Ticket: HST (SGX)

Index Tracked: Hang Seng Tech Index (30 largest HK-listed China tech companies)

Top exposures: Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, Xiaomi, JD, NetEase, SMIC

Structure: HST is a pure CN new-economy/platform -tech + AI + EV supply chain proxy

Key cyclical drivers:

(1) Fed easing -> weaker USD -> global capital flow into HK/China assets; if USD doesn't weaken -> capital stays in US assets & HST rallies tend to fail/stall

(2) Earnings normalisation after deep margin compression

(3) CN tech trading at much lower multiples -> Valuation gap Vs US tech remains wide

Outlook:

Near term - consensus is that Fed easing is off the table but earnings has some positives (e.g. Tencent). A large green candle with relatively high volume on 2 June is a promising sign for a possible reversal but we have to see if prices can hold for the next few session.

I am currently holding/accumlating this as a satellite growth allocation, pending re-rating/mean reversion of the Chinese tech.

I believe the enterprise AI hardware trade is gaining momentum, still early but not at the stage where early lurker make their multi-bagging.

Hi! Welcome aboard to the ship. Wishing you a safe journey to your treasure island.

The narrow breath ATH is held up by the mega cap tech which still has solid results to show. this is different from the dot com era where companies are just listed based on a dot com label and a dream only, i.e. with no results to show. Any pull back could still add to mega tech with solid fundamentals but not the broad index. Maybe likewise for secondary beneficiaries related to these tech too.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)is a core holding across my various portfolios and is the very first US stock I own. As a former DIY PC builder, Nvidia is a company which I have some understanding of it's products. Following the mantra of investing something you understand, it helped with conviction when the stock fell to a low of about 90-100 in 2024 and I held on and averaged down.

#Trade Showcase

To add upon Fattycat's take on the banks, the STI ETF (ES3.SI and G3B.SI) would likewise continue their uptrend since the 3 banks are the heavy weights in the index they track.

The market is no longer knee jerking to every event of the middle east war. The fatigue has set in and the worst case may have been priced in at the onset; the progress of the war just unwinds the tension. Now every one is on animal spirits again, chasing memory sector, space sector, AI trade. Right now, we could be walking on eggshells over thin ice?

despite folks complaining of product quality for stuffs bought over PDD, it's revenue and operating profit actually rose. Maybe in the age of consumption power downgrade, cheap retail therapy is still important. Anyway, new useless stuffs keeps popping up and buying cheap stuff makes sense and they would be dumped sooner than the buyer can get the hang of the item....

i personally don't think either AST or RKLB has any more room to run. Should be the last hurrah - final pump and dump once spaceX IPO. Then the spaceX side will suck up all the FOMO funds rotated from AST and RKLB to run hard and fast, followed by a fall off the cliff to trap all the retail astronauts on space debris while they dream of reaching the moon. Then bag holders will blame everything under the moon but themselves for boarding the space craft. Have fun orbiting the moon on space debris while listening to Musk's mojo broadcast from command centre - so near yet so far....

whatever the CPI, my equal weighted portfolio of banks and REITs keeps me eoughly neutral to these noises. Both happily spitting out dividends for reinvestment.

The quantum computing thingy is another pump and dump. Valuations has to be supported by real earning with clear growth instead of pumps from news hype. Just feel that funds need to be rotated from sectors already pumped hard.