LazyCat - Part of Longbridge's Investor Led Community

Apple's price increase serves as an aftershock resonating with micron's super beats earthquake. There is no doubt that the piranhas will have a happy feast on the memory stocks until another deepseek moment drop into the pond.

The $Lion-OSPL APAC Fin S(YLD.SG)ETF (launched May 2024) replicates the iEdge APAC Financials Dividend Plus Index, targeting the largest, most tradable, and highest dividend-yielding financial companies in the Asia-Pacific region.

It comprises 30 of the largest financial blue chips (banks, insurance giants, and asset managers) across APAC which includes Singapore's "Big Three" banks amongst the top positions.

This is currently a counterweight to my REIT portfolio in this see-sawing rate environment.

$FTSE ST All-Share Index - Real Estate REITs(FSTRE.SG)$CSOP iEdge SREIT ETF S(SRT.SG)$Lion-phillip S-Reit(CLR.SG)$Amova-StraitsTrdg Asia REIT(CFA.SG)

The May PCE data is going to be released today (25 Jun 2026). According to morningstar, the annual rate of PCE inflation is forecast to be 4.1% (from April 3.8%), the highest level since April 2023. However economists expect this reading to be the peak for 2026 as lower low prices and easing tariff effects might curb price pressure in the coming months.

Given that inflation is well over the Fed's 2% target, then why are REITs showing strength these few sessions?

The answer may be market positioning rather than fundamentals.

1) Yields Are Driving the Trade

REITs are responding more to the recent easing in US 10Y yields than to the absolute inflation level; market trading rates direction, not inflation level

> Lower yields improve the relative appeal of REIT distributions.

2) “Peak Inflation” Positioning

Markets already expect a warm PCE print.

Investors may be betting that inflation is near a short-term peak, not accelerating further.

3) Geopolitical Relief

US–Iran talks reduce immediate fear of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz / oil shock.

Lower oil-risk premium helps bond yields and REIT sentiment.

4) Defensive Yield Rotation

In uncertain markets, investors often rotate into stable-income assets.

> Quality REITs with visible DPU, stronger balance sheets, and defensive assets benefit most.

5) Event Positioning Before PCE

Some buying may reflect defensive positioning before a binary inflation event.

> This does not necessarily mean investors are ignoring inflation risk.

6) Key Risk

A hotter-than-expected PCE print could push yields higher and trigger a REIT pullback.

Bottom Line

REIT strength today reflects lower bond yields + peak-inflation hopes + defensive rotation.

The rally remains fragile until PCE confirms or rejects that view.

Wondering how we could position ourselves? Do see the scenario table below.

Micron's perfect print just sets the bar even higher for their next earning. There can be a lot of demand for memory but is there an energy bottleneck? Would pipe piper suddenly stopped the euphoric tune when someone whispers the energy shortage narrative?

$Micron Tech(MU.US) shares jumped 13% in after-hours trading following fiscal Q3 results and a Q4 outlook that significantly beat Wall Street expectations.

Fiscal Q3 Performance

* Revenue: Surpassed expectations ($35.69 billion) by climbing more than four-fold year-over-year to $41.46 billion.

* Adjusted Earnings: Soared 13X to $25.11 per share, outperforming the projected $20.49 and accelerating past Q2's 7.8X growth.

Fiscal Q4 Outlook

* Revenue Guidance: Projected at $50 billion (+/- $1 billion), easily beating the Bloomberg consensus of $43.24 billion.

* Adjusted Earnings Guidance: Expected to reach $31 per share (+/- $1), well ahead of the $25.31 analysts anticipated.

On closing, the food for thought is that the market now needs such kind of overwhelming beats with a dust-free forward guidance to support a rally. Scary?

$Mapletree Log Tr(M44U.SG)

Received the dividend from MLT today and it's been added to the war chest for deployment. Nothing seems to be of interest at the moment and I will just wait and see. Thought SG market could react to the KOSPI crash yesterday but all's quiet except that DBS and OCBC dipped slightly.

with the addition of Alphabet (GOOGL) to the Dow Jones, the traditional industrial index is becoming more correlated to QQQ and S&P 500. There is no where safe to hide from the volatility in the tech and AI names.

I believe it will be another sell the news event. Having the memory stocks rallying hard and with a positive news just before the earnings, this looks like another classic setup to entice retail investors to hold the bag while the big boys exit with their profit to close the quarter with a nice report card.

$DBS(D05.SG)$OCBC Bank(O39.SG)$UOB(U11.SG)$Amova-StraitsTrdg Asia REIT(CFA.SG)$Lion-phillip S-Reit(CLR.SG)$CSOP iEdge SREIT ETF S(SRT.SG)

Something interesting is observed today (at least till 1530hrs, 23 Jun 2026) for the Singapore market - both the bank and REIT sectors are showing strength concurrently! Normally, we would have expected them to move in opposite directions due to inverse correlation to interest rate. So then, what could be happening?

Firstly, the strength in SG banks is nothing unusual as the US "higher for longer" rate expectations holds and this supports the bank rally with the positivity in Net Interest Margins and earning visibility.

The part on the REIT defines the interest rate logic and I would like to offer my take.

When I looked at the US market at closing last night and the current futures (Dow Jones Future, NASDAQ 100 Future, S&P500 Future and VIX futures), it seems that there is a cautionary sentiment.

It is postulated that the apparent strength in REIT sector today is tactical rather than macro-driven, possibly a combination of the below:

(1) quarter end positioning by fund managers (window dressing)

(2) defensive rotation signals (rising VIX/weakening US futures)

(3) Attractive yields / yield spread

Well, I would be interested to know what you think. Do drop a comment below of your take and hope we can all learn together. Cheers!

May be wise to lock in some gains for Micron before the earnings. The coincidence of such a positive news just before the earning is really fishy given what happened to many flops on super beats of late - the rosy future priced in to lull FOMO bulls to take over the bag; once the result is out, retail are most likely left holding the bag. Then some experts will come out to dish out a cooked, nit-picking narrative of why a small piece of chopped garlic is a concern regardless that the entire dish is lip-smacking masterpiece.

With Marvell getting into the S&P 500, the supposite diversification is getting thinner and thinner. While our STI is critiised as being bank heavy, the S&P 500 is likewise getting really tech heavy; the strong correlation between them could be a free upgrade to a wilder roller coaster ride. I remembered taking a 360deg "Top Gun" ride where coins just dropped from the air from loose pockets for grabs. Maybe trading would likewise enjoy such free money when the rides get crazer.

$YZJ Shipbldg SGD(BS6.SG)$YZJ Shipbldg SGD(BS6.SG), a prominent shipbuilder, has recently shown some encouraging price actions over the last few sessions.

After a significant decline from a high of about 4.16, the stock has staged a short term bullish reversal and is now at a critical resistance zone (shown in yellow in the chart) where it's strength will be tested.

Looking at the trend, the price has managed to float above the 20-day moving average (20MA), which shows early signs of flattening.However a longer term uptrend is still not apparent as the 60MA is still pointing down.

The yellow band is a key resistance zone as it encompasses a few key levels:

- 3.65 & 3.70 which are both key psychological levels,

- 3.67/3.75 which were the levels of a previous peak.

A more convincing bullish reversal requires prices to overcome this resistance zone with conviction (i.e. high volume), which the last 2 sessions lacked. The base case would be for the prices to consolidate at the current level, waiting for increased participation. The bear case would be a breakdown, leading to a potential testing of the previous low.

@Bridge Buzz SG

Fed is reacting to economic strength. Robust retail sales, 172k new jobs and a structural AI capex boom proved demand is strong enough to absorb higher rates. inflation is elevated due to temp geopolitical energy shocks, not systemic economic overheating. By abstaining from forward guidance, Warsh protects growth optionality. Hawkish stance noe provides a safety net against inflation but then. the fed could do a 360deg turn later?

Puzzled by How Markets are Classified?

Global financial markets are categorized by:

1. Primary vs. Secondary Markets - Classification by fund flow.

* Primary: Companies sell new securities directly to investors to raise capital (e.g., via an IPO like $SpaceX(SPCX.US)). Funds flow from the buyer directly to the issuer.

* Secondary: Facilitates subsequent trading between investors. Funds flow exclusively between traders, providing essential liquidity.

2. Spot vs. Futures Markets - classified by the timing of delivery.

* Spot: Designed for immediate delivery. This suits participants needing immediate physical possession of an asset, like a processor buying industrial metals for production.

* Futures: Involve contracts for delivery on a specific future date. These are used by investors wanting to profit from price fluctuations w/o handling or storing physical goods.

3. Money vs. Capital Markets - Maturity, liquidity, and risk profiles determine which an asset belongs to.

* Money: Trade instruments maturing in less than one year, such as short-term treasury bonds, certificates of deposit, commercial paper & repurchase agreements. Trades feature high liquidity & low risk, serving short-term capital needs or temporary placement for idle funds.

* Capital: Involve medium-to-long-term assets (maturities over one year) like bonds & equities. They feature lower liquidity & higher risk, but offer favorable returns & finance long-term corporate development plans.

4. Traditional vs. Alternative Markets - divided by the conventionality of the asset class.

* Traditional: Cover standard, publicly traded assets including stocks, bonds, currencies, & futures.

* Alternative: Consists assets outside traditional categories, such as private equity (including venture capital), hedge funds, real estate, commodities, infrastructure & collectibles. They are typically less liquid, less market-correlated & frequently trade at a discount or premium.

The Warsh effect has already been priced in, and has been reflected in the reversal of the REIT rally, when he was nominated earlier this year.

$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S(HST.SG)

The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.39% to 4,651.59 (at the time of writing), driven by sector-specific sell-offs and macroeconomic uncertainty that overshadowed positive geopolitical news (like the US-Iran ceasefire).

Key Drivers

Tech & Semiconductor Slump:

Tech Heavyweights: Meituan (-4%), Baidu (-3%), and Tencent (-2.5%) lead the decline, alongside drops of over 5% from Bilibili.

Semicons: The chip sector faced intense pressure, with Innoscience and Tianshu Zhixin plunging over 7%, while Hua Hong and Hongguang Semiconductor dropped over 5%.

Fed Uncertainty: Investors are adopting a "sell first, ask questions later" approach ahead of the FOMC's two-day policy meeting—the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

Risk-Off: Fear of a hawkish surprise or delayed rate cuts is driving short-term capital away from risk assets. Conversely, analysts note a neutral tone could trigger a rebound.

Sentiment Over Valuation: Despite the index trading at a historically low valuation (P/B of 2.58x, lower than 88.57% of the past year's levels), negative short-term sentiment is overriding attractive fundamentals as Beijing has recently warned major e-commerce platforms (JD, Alibaba, Douyin, PDD) against false advertising and excessive competition, triggering renewed concerns of crackdown.

Crucial Risks to Watch

Fed Policy Stance: Any aggressive interest rate guidance from Chair Warsh will likely further pressure growth-sensitive tech stocks.

Semiconductor Drag: Continued downward momentum in chip stocks could prolong the index's overall weakness.

@Bridge Buzz SG

Nvidia's move looks like smart financing and not a red flag, borrowing while demand is strong to secure cheap, favourable funding. According to disclosure, the money is mainly for general corporate needs, like repaying/refinancing existing debts; not for AI capex.