LazyCat

Context: $CapLand Ascendas REIT(A17U.SG) is a blue chip REIT with a diversified portfolio in my folder. Much like any ship, be it an aircraft carrier or a supertanker, they can escape the pull of the receding tide concocted by the deadly mix of surging long term bond yields, elevated oil prices and unfavorable geopolitics.

My Trade: Although I do not like the fact that the REIT manager is rewarded more for increasing AUM rather than growing DPU, I'm doing absolutely nothing (like @Fattycat) even though it's in the red. Why? (1) I believe the REIT sector is oversold now due to the more attractive risk-free bond alternate and will normalised in the longer term, (2) Am holding this relatively higher quality REIT (compared with those small cap ones with lesser known sponsors who may not be able to save them from sinking) in my income pot for the long term - you don't sell a house meant for rental based on the daily market price movements.

Takeaway: Know your objective, stay the course. Price volatility is only the waves that is constantly around the ship, concentrate on the waves and you'll be jumping off the ship ever do often. But if you understand the tidal trend, you can live with the waves and let the tide carry the ship through the cycles.

In my opinion, market has prices elevated pessimism for the hikes are there is a general consensus on rate uncertainty. So does the hawkish trio add any new things? To me, it's nil.

Have been holding my horses and observing CFA and CLR REIT ETFs. One of them is steadily approaching the levels which I am interested.

The disruption to Telco by SpaceX is not a don't deal and the market is already selling down the Telcos. If the likelihood of spaceX succeeding is high or certain, this price movement is the clearest indication of how market expectations. If not, it's just a matter of selling on rumour to wash out the unsteady hands.

What is certain now is that uncertainty rules. Even the "safe haven" Singapore is zapped by the banks sell off. What I see is the rapid sector rotation of funds, triggered by news that are not new but suitable as a trigger for rotation. We have seen DeepSeek, SaaSpocalypse, Citi OCBC downgrade, now the anthropic some. Tune out the noise and focus on your own thesis and objective.

$Lion-OSPL APAC Fin S(YLD.SG)

Context: YLD is an ETF that tracks the iEdge APAC Financial Dividend Plus Index, which targets 30 of the largest and most tradable APAC Financial companies, covering banking, insurance, investment services and specialty finance.

The ETF fell 2.03% today mainly due to the following:

1. The 3 SG banks sell downs were the dominant driver as they accounted for 23% of the portfolio and contributed to ~1.10% of the drop.

2. The second major source of weakness was from its Korea exposure which accounted for ~0.43% of the drop.

3. Thirdly, Japan was also hit. One of YLD's significant holding - Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group also fell 2.25% and it accounted for ~o.11% of the drag.

4. Next, the Australian financiala were also weak with NAB -0.78%, Westpac -1.64, ANZ -1.52% and Macquarie -0.22%. While these were negative contributors, the were far less damaging than the above.

Takeaway:

1. While YLD is supposed to be "APAC Financials", it behaves more like a concentrated basket of Singapore + Korean + Japanese + Australian banks where it's top 10 positions accounted ~60% of the portfolio holdings.

2. There appears to be a regional financial sector sell-off instead of just a specific country.

3. The decline today was amplified by the high weightage of the 3 SG banks which encountered a sharp sell off today.

My Trade: I am looking for opportunity to accumulate while maintaining a yield on cost above 5.5%. For ref, the current TTM yield is 5.08% for today's price of 1.498 and my trailing yield on cost is ~5.97%.

It seems that most focus on the bank selloff instead of registering a broad SG market weakness today. Almost all discussions focused on the impact of the Citi analyst downgrade but is this the cause or just the trigger for the sell down? The toppishness/high valuation of the banks have been shared for quite some time but those voices were rediculed by the bank bulls who shares their unwaivering conviction that banks will only go up. Sometimes, Mr Market is just waiting for an excuse at an opportune time to take profits and pass the bag. Such is a time for the baptism of fire for new investors. Good luck and may they emerge stronger after this.

The sell down of OCBC today is likely due to the Citi's downgrade from Neutral to Sell, setting a TP of SGD27.5. This is actually a prediction of where the stock could trade down to if their concerns of slowing growth ("flat Q3 earnings"), shrinking profit margins from net interest income play out. Sometimes, such are "sell the rumour" event before a catalyst - do note that this is a prediction and not a fact (which is to be proven with the actual result).

I'm not jumping onboard SPCX just because of it's jump fueled by Morgan Stanley's opinion and 300 TP. It has to prove it's profitability else it's another round of hyping up the market.

hmmm, seems like the lowering of the board lot size diminished the interest in UOB, with it falling while DBS and OCBC climbed.

$Lion-OSPL APAC Fin S(YLD.SG)

Context: With the US bond yield reaching record high with little sign of abating it's ascend, I have adjusted my accumulation levels for REITs downwards. While waiting for the levels to be reached, I have watched for opportunity to load up on financials.

My Trade: With the price of YLD pulling back, I have added to my position a day after it has gone XD.

Takeaway: Adjust your plan when circumstances change and there will always be opportunities to be found.

today 2 STI components slid a flights of stairs and bruised many a unit holder - DFIRG -8.82% & -7.16%. Among them, SGX's fall is really painful to see, falling from 25.69 ATH since late Aug with 2 vertical drops on 14 Sep and today. There are no negative catalysts and it seems risk-off profit taking / positioning before NFP?

It is actually considered good that Micron prices stayed flat I steady of getting dumped post earning despite good results and forward guidance. It shows that the high expectations were met.