Ming-Chi Kuo

Three months ago, I predicted that mass production of the new display-equipped HomePod would slip from 1Q25 to 3Q25 (after WWDC) due to software development issues. Beyond Apple Intelligence, the issues also involve ensuring the HomePod’s interface aligns with new OS updates (like iOS 19) set to roll out across other devices in 2H25. This alignment is essential for seamlessly integrating new products into Apple’s ecosystem.$Apple(AAPL.US)

Since President Trump took office, the U.S. government has been actively brainstorming with industry players to save Intel (IFS). One idea is a TSMC-led JV running IFS, recently reported again. The problem is that this idea is still far off and challenging to pull off, so it’s not the main focus of current fundamental analysis. The buzz around these brainstorming talks has cooled off after TSMC announced its $100 billion U.S. investment plan earlier. Still, I believe if geopolitics shift big time or Intel’s 18A falls short, these brainstorming talks could heat up again.$Intel(INTC.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)

My latest industry survey shows that Xiaomi’s upcoming flagship, the Xiaomi 16 Pro, set to launch in late 2025, is also adopting a metal mid-frame produced with Bright Laser Technologies (BLT)’s 3D printing technology. This points to an accelerating trend of using 3D printing for smartphone mid-frames. The advantage of producing smartphone mid-frames with 3D printing lies in its ability to leverage hollow designs, which reduce weight and enhance thermal performance without compromising structural strength. Production efficiency has historically been a hurdle for 3D printing, but as this bottleneck continues to ease, phone manufacturers will likely adopt the 3D printing once its benefits outweigh the costs, without requiring efficiency to match that of mainstream technologies. This shift echoes past innovations: before Apple pioneered CNC technology for making MacBook unibody metal casing, few believed such a process could scale to consumer electronics.$Xiaomi Corporation(XIACY.US)  $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

My understanding is that TSMC always takes a highly cautious approach to capacity expansion. Unless there's a dramatic industry reversal in the short term, it's not easy to see significant order reductions (variations in the low to mid-single digits are considered reasonable, as no one can predict future demand with pinpoint accuracy.) Last year, at the height of AI and Nvidia market optimism, Nvidia pushed TSMC to expand its monthly CoWoS capacity to 100,000 wafers—a request that TSMC rejected.

Incidentally, using this as an example, if outsiders had obtained Nvidia's optimistic request—a common practice when customers push for expansion during bullish markets—some market participants might overestimate TSMC's capacity or Nvidia's orders based on the leaked information, generating market chatter.$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) 

https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/100000000012737?invite-code=

The first Panther Lake engineering samples, made with Intel/IFS’s 18A, are currently being tested by major PC ODM/EMS makers. My early 2025 industry survey showed 18A yields below 20-30%, so there’s still a lot of room to step up—which doesn’t bode well for Intel’s goal of hitting mass production in 2H25. On top of the tech challenges, IFS faces a big obstacle in winning outside orders due to its org setup, supply chain mgt, and culture. That’s where TSMC totally stands out.$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Intel(INTC.US) $Intercorp Financial Services(IFS.US)

Nvidia GB300 NVL72 may not use supercapacitors. My latest supply chain survey indicates that Nvidia has recently removed the supercapacitor shelves from its new GB300 NVL72 rack design due to technical and mass-production concerns. At present, Nvidia has not proposed a clear alternative. This change could alter the market’s expectations for supercapacitor supplier Musashi's future AI server business outlook.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)