koolgal

🌟🌟🌟A Big Thank You @Fattycatfor sharing your heart felt investing story. It is one where many of us have experienced. It is the triumph of overcoming our hardships to become better investors from the lessons learnt. The pain you felt is literally the cost of tuition for your future financial wisdom. Congratulations on becoming the master investor you are today by learning how to pilot your ship directly through the storms and making it to the other side.

Smooth seas do not make skillful sailors.

🌟🌟🌟It is a strange paradox that even though the Fed lifted interest rate this week, the US stock market staged a massive cheering rally. When rates go up, asset prices are supposed to go down. Yet time and time again, the Fed drops a heavy rate hike on the table and Wall Street throws a party instead.

The reality is Wall Street breathes a sigh of relief because the cloud of uncertainty has cleared. The market goes up because a confident Fed signals a strong world.

🌟🌟🌟One of the most important news today is the Bank of Japan raising its interest rate to 1.25%. This elevates Japanese borrowing costs to its highest level in 31 years since 1995.

The biggest risk to the global market is the Japan carry trade. When it cracks, the fallout spreads far beyond Japan, capable of triggering forced liquidations and sudden market crashes across global stock and bond markets.

What should investors do?

Cut leverage: Pay off margin loans or reduce borrowed money used for trading.

Reduce risk: Trim holdings in speculative assets that rely on cheap funding

Diversify: Move money into safer stable assets or cash equivalents.

A good Singapore stock to invest in is $ST Engineering(S63.SG). ST Engineering is a global technology, defence and engineering powerhouse that operates across the aerospace, smart city and public defence sectors.

This is because its revenue is heavily driven by long term government contracts and rising global defense budgets, making it almost entirely immune to immediate consumer spending drops or global monetary policy shocks.

ST Engineering also pays a dividend yield of 1.81% while waiting for capital growth.

Fasten your seatbelts for the volatility ahead.

🌟🌟🌟Crypto investors had a setback today as the Clarity Act failed to pass through the US Senate. Immediately a cold shiver ran through digital asset stocks with $Circle(CRCL.US)plunging over 11% overnight.

What should investors do?

Step Away from Crypto Stocks: Do not rush in to buy the dip on companies tied to regulatory approval. When Circle dropped 11% because the legal future just got clouded, cheap can get a whole lot cheaper before it finds a true bottom.

Park in the Safe Haven VIP Lounge: Parking your money in ultra short term vehicles like $iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF(SGOV.US)or $Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF(VBIL.US)lets you earn a safe, risk free yield while the political storm rages outside.

My Take

The failure of the Clarity Act isn't a sign that crypto is dying. It is just a sign that Washington is not quite ready for the Clarity Act. Circle is still an incredibly cash rich business but it has been locked back in a regulatory penalty box.

Let the politicians do the wrangling, our job is to simply make sure our wallet survives the performance.

The Beginner's Playbook: How To Invest Safely On FOMC Day

If you are a new investor, you do not need to hide under the bed until the FOMC meeting is over. You just need to trade your fragile sports car for an armoured financial vehicle.

Here is how to navigate tomorrow's rate hike:

Avoid the Siren Song of Catching Falling Knives: When a famous tech stock like $Tesla(TSLA.US)may drop 5% on Thursday, don't rush. In a rising interest rate environment, expensive stocks can get a whole lot cheaper before they find a true floor. Let the market digest the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's words first.

Build an Unshakeable Cash Cushion: Parking your money in high yield cash vehicles or short term Treasury bills like $iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF(SGOV.US)allows you to earn a steady yield while you wait for the storm to clear.

Anchor in Low Volatility Index ETFs: Instead of betting on single companies, spread your risk across broad index ETFs engineered for defence.

Look for funds like $Ps S&P Low Vol(SPLV.US)or $SPDR S&P 500 Val(SPYV.US). These track stable, cash rich companies in healthcare, utilities and consumer staples that keep making money regardless of what the Fed does.

As the legendary investor Benjamin Graham beautifully noted:

"The essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns" .

Take a deep breath, embrace the bumpy ride and focus on protecting your capital first!

Good luck to all my Longbridge friends.🥰🥰🥰🍀🍀🍀

Big Week Ahead With FOMC & BOJ Meetings

If you thought the market tremors earlier this year was intense, this super central bank week could trigger an even sharper selloff.

Cross border Yen borrowing - the ultimate engine of the carry trade balloons to a massive 360 trillion yen or USD 2.35 trillion. Global macro traders have used this incredibly cheap debt to finance riskier, high yielding assets worldwide, especially tech giants.

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to aggressively lift its policy rate on Friday to 1.25%. This marks the fastest tightening sequence in half a century. The era of virtually free money in Japan is over.

Fasten our seatbelts. It is going to be a bumpy ride this week.

🌟🌟🌟Guess which are the top 2 performing banks in the world according to Forbes' latest list? It is our Singapore banks $OCBC Bank(O39.SG)- Number 1 and $DBS(D05.SG)- Number 2! It is simply amazing that they can beat $JPMorgan Chase(JPM.US). There were 500 banks evaluated out of 89 countries. As a Singaporean investor I am so proud of how far they have come. Kudos to their excellent management.

🌟🌟🌟It is really surprising to see $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)closing up 8% last Wednesday. The fact is CEO Jensen Huang said that NVIDIA is seeing incredible demand. Everything is sold out as customers clamor for Nvidia's products to support AI. As an investor that is great news for me.

🌟🌟🌟This is crunch week - a tale of 2 dates that will define Wall Street: the US August CPI release on Friday September 11 & the highly anticipated FOMC rate decision on Wednesday September 16.

With international oil prices having recently hitting over USD 100 & energy cost surging, the anxiety is real.

However over an extended multi year horizon, the macroeconomic noise of a single CPI report or FOMC meeting fades into a minor blip on a chart.

I will continue to dollar cost average into $State Street Portfolio S&P 500 ETF - SPDR(SPYM.US)which is widely regarded as one of the most reliable ways to build long term wealth.

🌟🌟🌟I believe $Oracle(ORCL.US)will close up 4% to 7% post earnings as its cloud infrastructure growth accelerated by 121% to USD 7.4 billion. The closing price will be USD 165.

This shows that Oracle is able to convert its strong demand for AI computing into sales growth.

🌟🌟🌟To look at the latest iPhone18 is to look at the fragile, beautiful reality of a modern creation. It is a timely reminder that a device we pull seamlessly from our pockets is born from the alignment of 11 distinct corporate giants, thousands of engineers & shifting geopolitical landscapes.

The transition from Cook to Ternus is an emotional changing of the guard. It moves us away from the era of supply chain optimisation and pushes us directly into the era of raw, hardware driven innovation.

The stage is set. The global players are aligned. John Ternus era has officially begun.

🌟🌟🌟The USD 100 barrel of oil is back. This is in response to the latest tit for tat strikes and Houthi attacks on regional energy infrastructure.

If you want to get into action, $Us Brent Oil(BNO.US)gives you direct exposure to skyrocketing oil prices. BNO holds near month futures contracts traded on the ICE Futures Exchange.

🌟🌟🌟The sea of green we celebrated so fiercely last week has been replaced by a familiar stinging red. The STI Index tumbled yesterday as conflict in the Middle East continues. Oil prices skyrocket toward $98 a barrel. The ghosts of inflation are knocking on the door again. Fear of higher for longer interest rates has forced institutional investors to hit the Sell button to lock in their profits.

It is timely reminder that no matter how fundamentally strong our economy is, we are tied to the unpredictable, chaotic currents of global geopolitics.

It maybe painful to see our paper gains evaporate but keeping a cool head is the best way to survive the storm.