Heroic Lifesaver

$Tesla(TSLA.US)

Technically, Tesla is in a huge multi year ABC structure from the year it was listed in 2010. My count which is open to interpretation of course has the A wave top in 2017 and the B wave bottom in 2019 when it touched 12 dollars thereabouts (Can you imagine that?!)

It has never looked back and has rallied to its 400 levels now in its C wave. So where is she now in terms of her price action?

I would say she is in the middle of a diagonal within a bigger diagonal of the final fifth wave of the huge C wave.

The thing that makes it tricky is we have an ATH in December 25 which cleared the previous high in December 24 by a whisker so that means all waves are theoretically complete.

However there is still a theoretical count taking price to the 600 levels if supports hold. I don’t see the risk rewards worthwhile enough to hold a large position and amidst the markets’ valuations and macro uncertainty. So safety first it is.

@Bridge Buzz SG

Now that the peace deal has firmed up, everyone seems to be in a buoyant risk on mode again. I am net long but cautiously so.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

The headlines are all about the peace deal. Reminder that it has yet to be signed. Another thing is that SpaceX listing that is a huge liquidity drain and not surprising if Nvidia being a huge market cap has had investors divesting to ride on SpaceX.

Technically, Nvidia has three clear waves down which is pretty encouraging and might lend credence to another rally to new highs if supports hold and I am watching 189 very closely to see how price reacts there.

Another possible count is a B wave rally within an already ongoing correction instead of the continuation of the rally as mentioned above.

@Bridge Buzz SG

At last we have a peace deal with an actual date on the table. It has been on and off for so long it has to get done at some point of time!

$Micron Tech(MU.US)

If you ask me, Micron still has good value compared to other names in the AI sector. Its PEG value is still below 1 and depending on which camp you are in, you might consider that fantastic value or an arbitrary cautious one.

1. The traditional camp with the view that memory is cyclical so take it with a pinch of salt.

vs

2. Memory is no longer cyclical being a critical component of the AI supply chain and we only need more memory as AI scales.

I believe memory has become an important commodity and component of the supply chain ie camp 2. However, technically, the memory space needs a breather. Once she gets that, she might rocket upwards especially as revenue keeps scaling upwards.

@Bridge Buzz SG

I think this is the seventh or eighth time I hear a peace deal has been achieved and the 20th time that is close to being signed! Can I say we are ahead of schedule and that’s why the markets are happy about it? 😂

$Exxon Mobil(XOM.US)

With the ongoing middle east uncertainty, it was a defensive decision to add an energy name. It serves two purposes - firstly as a defensive hedge to fit the barbell strategy that I am utilising as well as an asset that has actual physical hard real assets that is easier to assign a value to vs the arbitrary values for the hot AI companies.

Still bullish long term AI but just a bit of cushion instead of just relying on cash as a primary form of hedge.

@Bridge Buzz SG

Does it really need a hot CPI number and an on off high school standoff to ignite a sell off? The market can just keep going higher if it wants to and the narrative will shift accordingly. Hilarious actually. Now let’s see what the narratives say when the market rebounds. 🤔😂

I have already mentioned the risks in the markets earlier and warned that valuations are very high and too stretched despite the massive tailwinds in AI. This selloff looks like the C of a possible bigger A wave so a strong rebound is expected pretty soon.

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US)- The AI bottleneck

A bottleneck is described as the part which controls or restricts the flow of something. Own that and you control the stream.

Now it has become clear with the roadmap and future itineration of the AI hardware with particular reference to Nvidia and the Vera Rubin product line onwards, that silicon photonics and optics are essential for the AI clusters to talk to each other and co packaged optics are the way forward, everyone are piling into optics names such as Lite and Cohr etc.

What I like about AAOI is this - It is vertically stacked and produce everything in house. Which means it does not to depend on other supply chains and it has already started expanding productions at its Sugar Land facility.

The faster it can scale production, the faster revenue grows. And we know demand is skyrocketing.

And to add to that, it keeps most production within US.

The sky is the limit for this one.

$1000 by 2027.

Bookmark this post.

@Bridge Buzz SG

Why does everyone think that Google ordering some chips from Intel is a boost for them at Nvidia’s expense? In all honesty, who really thinks that Intel can actually compete with Nvidia and did they forget that Nvidia actually has some form of partnership with Intel? I think that’s what gave Google confidence to buy those Intel chips.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Let’s have a look at the de facto AI leadership and its price action post Friday’s selloff. She closed around 6% down. Volume was slightly elevated. However it was not markedly so. Hence selling is still somewhat contained and could be attributed to more aggressive sellers unloading to more patient buyers into a more fearful crowd. Less FOMO -> better prices essentially.

Psychological as well as price level support at 200. AVWAP confluence at 188. That is where the real battle will be between the bears and the bulls.

@Bridge Buzz SG

The markets are so stretched, in honesty they don’t require much to correct. The narratives provide the ‘backdrop story’ as usual. Staying safe and cautiously conservatively net long.

$Micron Tech(MU.US)

Looks like Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron has been approved for the Nvidia Rubin Vera HBM4. So I guess that means these three horses will keep galloping?

Technically, Micron seems to have peaked into a fifth wave of a bigger three so a healthy wave 4 pullback is on the horizon and a healthy outcome.

Targets are the 711 at 14.6 retrace and 551 at 23.6 retrace. Amazing isn’t it price can retreat that much and still have not touched the 38.2 retrace! That’s how bullish Micron is technically!

@Bridge Buzz SG

The pullback in the AI sector is a welcome breather and a much needed one. It has been going up too fast. Take it easy!

$Exxon Mobil(XOM.US)

As part of the barbell strategy mentioned, energy names make up the other spectrum balancing the high beta tech names along with precious metals and other defensive names. One of the higher quality names chosen is Exxon Mobil which correlates to oil prices and hence provide cushion.

Oil looks to be in a triangular pattern usually seen in second or fourth waves. This one looks more like a fourth which indicates oil might wave up if it clears the upper trend line.

@Bridge Buzz SG