amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) named Nebius $Nebius(NBIS.US) its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner, announcing a strategic partnership to integrate Nebius compute and inference endpoints directly inside Palantir’s enterprise perimeter. The integration will allow eligible Palantir commercial customers to run open AI models on Nebius infrastructure, continuously adapt them using proprietary company data, and maintain control over their compute, models, and data. The companies also plan to bring new AI compute capacity online faster, including modular data-center deployments in locations where power is already available. Palantir CEO Alex Karp said, “Nebius’ compute infrastructure powers your ability to run your own AI models under conditions you control. Our ontology and their infrastructure will undergird the sovereignty our partners are demanding.” Nebius CEO Arkady Volozh added that the partnership will help commercial clients run optimized open models on trusted infrastructure while maintaining control over their data and models.

2. The EU and Canada are reportedly set to announce a major “all-encompassing” partnership spanning trade and security after President Trump’s latest tariffs, according to Bloomberg. The goal is to build a new alliance that helps offset global power politics dominated by the U.S. and China. The partnership is expected to be announced on September 16, with Canada and the EU reportedly aiming to get “as close as legally possible” short of EU membership. Canada has also become the first country outside the EU to join the bloc’s $175B military procurement fund, underscoring how quickly trade tensions are pushing allies toward deeper economic and defense cooperation.

3. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF $IBIT has attracted $3.7B of inflows so far this quarter, putting it on pace for its largest quarterly intake since Q3 2025. The fund has already added $459.8M in September inflows, following $3.0B in August, its biggest monthly inflow since October 2025. As a result, $IBIT AUM has climbed to $62.6B, near its highest level since mid-May. Since the start of July, the fund’s AUM has increased by $19.6B, or 46%, showing renewed institutional and retail demand for Bitcoin exposure through ETFs.

4. OpenAI CFO said at the Goldman Sachs conference that the consumer business is accelerating, with July revenue up 20% MoM. The enterprise business grew even faster, with July revenue up 32% MoM. OpenAI’s revenue mix is now roughly 50/50 between enterprise and consumer, showing that growth is broadening beyond ChatGPT subscriptions and into business adoption.

5. Schwab retail activity in August shows investors selling the software rip and buying the semiconductor dip. The top retail buys were $SpaceX(SPCX.US), $Micron Tech(MU.US), $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), $Intel(INTC.US), and $Alphabet(GOOGL.US), while the top sells were $ServiceNow(NOW.US), $Adobe(ADBE.US), $Microsoft(MSFT.US), $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US), and $Oracle(ORCL.US). The shift points to more active portfolio management from retail investors, with money rotating out of crowded software winners and into AI, chips, and compute-related names after pullbacks.

6. Copper prices on the LME have surged to a record $14,533/ton, now up 47% over the last 12 months. The move is being driven by tight supply and rising demand from data centers, renewable energy, and power grids. Expectations that President Trump could expand tariffs to refined copper imports have also pushed U.S. Comex prices above global prices, creating an incentive for traders to ship hundreds of thousands of tons of copper into the U.S. to capture the price spread. As a result, global stockpiles are becoming increasingly concentrated in the U.S., draining LME inventories to critically low levels and leaving less readily available copper for buyers elsewhere.

7. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) launched Muse, a personal AI agent that can take actions across apps and the web, including sending emails, booking travel, filling out forms, and making purchases with user approval. Muse runs on Meta’s new Muse Secure VM, giving each user a dedicated cloud environment with a separate Sentinel agent that reviews actions before they reach the internet. The agent can continue working after the app is closed, remember user preferences, and proactively move longer-term tasks forward. Meta is also integrating Stripe Link for checkout, with Shop Pay and 1Password support coming later.

8. IREN $IREN(IREN.US) said its 2 GW Sweetwater Hub has been conditionally included as base load in ERCOT Batch Zero. Sweetwater 1 accounts for 1.4 GW and Sweetwater 2 for 600 MW, both part of IREN’s broader 5 GW+ global data-center development pipeline. At Sweetwater 1, the high-voltage substation is already energized, with 300 MW of gross data-center capacity under construction and targeted for delivery in Q4 2027. IREN also said additional large-scale projects across its development pipeline have been included in Batch Zero, though ERCOT classifications remain conditional and subject to further approvals.

9. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.4M contracts, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.2M contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 1.3M contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 847K contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 689K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 673K contracts, $AMD(AMD.US) with 615K contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 568K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 524K contracts, and $Coreweave(CRWV.US) with 477K contracts.

10. The U.S. government is backing Rigetti $Rigetti Computing(RGTI.US) and D-Wave $D-Wave Quantum(QBTS.US) with up to $200M for quantum computing R&D. Rigetti signed a definitive $100M agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce to address key scaling bottlenecks in superconducting quantum systems, including cryogenics, readout electronics, and high-connectivity chip fabrication. D-Wave separately finalized access to up to $100M to advance its annealing and gate-model platforms, including work on a 100,000-qubit annealing system and a 10,000-qubit gate-model system targeting 100 logical qubits. As part of the funding, the Commerce Department will receive minority, non-controlling equity stakes in both companies.

11. Uber $Uber Tech(UBER.US) President and COO Andrew Macdonald purchased 70,000 shares for roughly $5.3M. Macdonald is one of Uber’s longest-tenured executives, making the insider buy notable given his deep knowledge of the business, operations, and long-term strategy.

12. U.S. data center construction spending surged 57% YoY in July to a record annualized rate of $75B, following a 46% YoY increase in June and marking the fastest growth since mid-2025. Since the start of 2021, data center construction spending has soared by $66B, or 717%. Since the end of 2023 alone, spending has risen by $51B. Over that same period, all other private construction spending — including housing, shopping centers, and offices — has declined by $120B, showing how dramatically AI infrastructure is diverging from the rest of the construction market.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

TRUMP:

- DIRECTING THE USTR TO BEGIN REMOVING CANADIAN ORIGIN PRODUCTS FROM US GOV PROCUREMENT PROGRAMS

- CANADA HAS ALREADY BANNED US FROM SELLING INTO THE GOV, WE SHOULD DO THE SAME

- NO RECIPROCITY, NO ACCESS

Canada trade tensions not slowing down yet.

Source: amit

For those wondering why we had some ugly red candles towards the end of day…

- U.S. forces struck multiple IRGC-linked Iranian tankers in response to further attempted Iranian missile attacks on a U.S. Navy warship, according to a U.S. official.

- Iran’s IRGC Navy warned oil tanker crews near Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports hosting Americans to evacuate, saying ships would be targeted in retaliation, according to Iranian state media.

Basically, escalation is only continuing with Iran which is pushing up oil…the market has largely ignored the spike in oil but the highest level in 3 months on these headlines definitely took a hit to markets by end of day.

Crude now pushing $94/barrel.

Source: amit

SCHWAB RETAIL ACTIVITY IN AUGUST:

Top Buys:

- $SpaceX(SPCX.US)

- $Micron Tech(MU.US)

- $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

- $Intel(INTC.US)

- $Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

Top Sells:

- $ServiceNow(NOW.US)

- $Adobe(ADBE.US)

- $Microsoft(MSFT.US)

- $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)

- $Oracle(ORCL.US)

Basically retail sold the software rip and bought the semi dip in software, more and more active portfolio management from retail investors.

Source: amit

software is down because semis are gapping up heavily today

this has become the new normal, so it shouldnt surprise anyone

however, id much rather deal with a software dump from 52-week highs vs making new lows almost every week a few months ago when the semis would pump

honestly, the $IGV names now taking a break and the $SMH names getting more life feels healthy 🤷‍♂️

would obviously love all names to move up or down together so playing different individual sectors wasn’t a thing but it is what it is…if both sectors take multiple months off at different times then the semi part of your port will just need to relax when saas goes up and vice versa

question is if semis can get a June run again and how low saas needs to go for that to happen but these algos absolutely are stuck in the long/short pair trade, just not as aggressively as when Leopold was deeper into the trade and every fund was copying him

Source: amit

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) $Nebius(NBIS.US)

PALANTIR NAMES NEBIUS AS ITS PREFERRED SOVEREIGN AI INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNER.

- Palantir and Nebius announced a strategic AI infrastructure partnership, with Palantir naming Nebius its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner and planning to integrate Nebius compute and inference endpoints directly inside Palantir’s enterprise perimeter.

- The integration will allow eligible Palantir commercial customers to run open AI models on Nebius infrastructure, continually adapt them using proprietary company data, and maintain control over their compute, models and data.

- The companies will also work together to bring new AI compute capacity online faster, including modular data-center deployments at locations where power is already available.

Palantir CEO Alex Karp: “Nebius’ compute infrastructure powers your ability to run your own AI models under conditions you control. Our ontology and their infrastructure will undergird the sovereignty our partners are demanding.”

Nebius CEO Arkady Volozh: “Organizations need both the performance of large-scale AI infrastructure and control over their data and models. Together with Palantir, we are bringing this to commercial clients enabling them to run their optimized open models on trusted infrastructure.”

Makes sense for both to engage in a partnership. Palantir believes deeply in sovereign control over data and Nebius has said many times that they want compute infrastructure to be distributed and not just controlled by a handful of companies, felt like a partnership around sovereignty and distributed compute with both companies made sense.

来源: amit

honestly, a year ago I would feel like I have no purpose in life on a day when the markets are closed

now, I genuinely take it as a day to relax and reset

i think its because all the volatility is aging me

got gray hairs now on my beard now at 28

so ill go touch grass today and try to delay some more of the gray on a day with less volatility 😂

Source: amit

BREAKING: Hunter Biden is set to launch a meme coin called $LAPTOP on Sept. 9.

The coin will be launched through a Coinbase-affiliated blockchain, according to the WSJ.

Biden and the token’s founders are expected to control 30% of the 1 billion-token supply.

A separate allocation will reportedly be distributed to people who lost money trading $TRUMP, among others.

Well, didn’t expect to see this headline on Labor Day.

Source: amit

The $Uber Tech(UBER.US) vs $Tesla(TSLA.US) debate happening right now across the board is fascinating in many respects.

I’ve spent all day reading both sides. I even went to ChatGPT and had a conversation with Astra because of how fascinating this debate is to me.

By the way, Astra is legit. Releasing that before Anthropic’s IPO was a chess move. The frontier lab wars are only getting more intense.

I am long both in small quantities. A bit of Tesla I bought a year ago at $350 and haven’t added since and a small amount of Uber I added 2 weeks ago at $75 after taking a look at the numbers. Not short any of the names but also not meaningfully long any of them at this moment either.

My conclusion so far is both sides are being ridiculously extreme in their conclusion.

The extreme $Uber Tech(UBER.US) bulls are not seriously acknowledging the direct existisitential threat to its moat via CyberCab’s pure product experience and eventual scale.

The extreme $Tesla(TSLA.US) bulls are not giving any merit to the 200M+ monthly users they have, how hard is it to scale a network, how self driving might be commoditized and Uber could simply become the largest marketplace for multiple vendors, and how much time unsupervised true autonomy will take to reach any meaningful level of Uber’s 42M daily rides.

Honestly, I think both will do well. I don’t think it has to be as black or white as both sides are making it.

However, it is an incredible thought experiment. Uber disrupted transportation forever with technology, and now Tesla is disrupting transportation forever with autonomy.

I think Uber is undervalued. I think Tesla has the most exciting potential out of all the Mag 7 over the next decade.

I just think both sides are writing off the other for no reason.

The funniest outcome would be an eventual partnership even though I know it’s not that likely, but I do think this is going to not be one or the other.

Source: amit

AUGUST U.S. NONFARM PAYROLLS:

- The US economy added 162K jobs in August 2026, beating expectations by 56K jobs

- July’s payrolls were upwardly revised by 23K

- Unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.1% expected

- Employment increased in food services and drinking places and in local government education

10-year spiked to 4.8% again and markets went slightly red on the print.

Labor market continues to be hot and one of the reasons that makes it harder for the Fed to justify cutting rates.

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Tesla $Tesla(TSLA.US) launched steering-wheel-free Cybercab rides in Austin, marking the first public deployment of its purpose-built autonomous vehicle. Customers can now book Cybercab rides through Tesla’s Robotaxi app, with Tesla having registered 45 Cybercabs in Texas, bringing its state robotaxi fleet to 420 vehicles. The two-seat Cybercab has no steering wheel, pedals, or mirrors, relying on cameras and neural networks instead of lidar or radar, while also featuring in-car entertainment and integrated Starlink V5. Cybercab is not yet available for sale, but Tesla has opened a form for potential fleet buyers. Federal safety rules still prevent commercial sales, and Tesla has not yet filed for an NHTSA exemption.

2. Fed Governor Chris Waller said he would support keeping rates at 3.50%–3.75% this month if upcoming inflation data continues to show progress toward the Fed’s 2% target. Waller said recent data suggest the economy is “finally seeing some signs of disinflation,” and that if the improvement continues in data due over the next 2 weeks, he would be inclined to hold rates steady. However, he warned that if August inflation data show the improvement was fleeting, “it may be appropriate to raise the policy rate.” He also noted that uncertainty remains around military conflicts, trade policy, and AI’s impact on prices and economic activity.

3. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) has agreed to acquire Hugging Face for $12.93B, giving it one of the largest open AI developer platforms in the world. Hugging Face says it now serves more than 18M developers, researchers, and creators, with over 3M models, 500K datasets, 1M applications, and 200K+ companies on the platform. Nvidia says Hugging Face will remain open to models and hardware across the ecosystem, with no requirement for developers to use Nvidia compute and continued support for multi-cloud and multi-accelerator deployment. Nvidia also plans to use its infrastructure and engineering resources to expand Hugging Face’s model evaluation, inference, deployment, safety, and platform reliability.

4. Morgan Stanley says Broadcom $Broadcom(AVGO.US) delivered a quarter and outlook that were slightly better than prior guidance, while its 2027 AI revenue commentary of $115B came in slightly below the firm’s $120B estimate but still in line with management’s prior view for “well above $100B.” The bigger takeaway is that management said AI revenue should “double again” in 2028, with customer breadth improving and two AI labs expected to become Broadcom’s two largest customers by CY28. Morgan Stanley says it continues to haircut CY28 because semiconductor visibility rarely extends that far, but its numbers still move up considerably. The firm sees some near-term uncertainty from elevated CY27 AI expectations, but believes market-share expectations remain too low, with industry contacts supporting the view that Broadcom can drive 80%+ share of its serviceable markets over time. Morgan Stanley says valuation remains compelling, growth remains very robust, and $Broadcom(AVGO.US), along with $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), continues to look like one of the most attractively valued AI names.

5. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) CEO Mark Zuckerberg reportedly told President Trump in a private August call that he opposed a proposal to create a national AI regulator, according to Business Insider. The White House is considering a FINRA-style body that could review and test advanced AI models for risks before broader deployment, an idea originally proposed by Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis. Zuckerberg has argued that delaying model releases, even by a month, could hurt U.S. leadership against China. The White House is reportedly weighing two paths: a formal FINRA-style AI regulator, or a more voluntary industry-led standards group similar to the Motion Picture Association, an approach backed by David Sacks. The proposal remains under consideration.

6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 3.5M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.7M contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 1.4M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.3M contracts, $Broadcom(AVGO.US) with 1.0M contracts, $Strategy(MSTR.US) with 925K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 806K contracts, $PG & E(PCG.US) with 720K contracts, $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) with 717K contracts, and $Robinhood(HOOD.US) with 682K contracts.

7. OpenAI has started rolling out GPT-6 Astra, its new flagship model, calling it a “generational leap” in AI capability. President Greg Brockman went further, saying people may eventually look back at “about this time and about this model” as when AGI arrived, ending the briefing with: “Welcome to the AGI era.” Astra was trained on more than 100,000 GPUs at OpenAI’s Stargate site in Texas and is designed to work directly inside software, including creating spreadsheets and presentations, building 3D environments, designing circuit boards, handling financial modeling, and drafting tax forms. OpenAI says Astra leads across software engineering, science, reasoning, computer use, and cybersecurity, but the model also reached OpenAI’s “Critical” cybersecurity threshold, meaning its strongest cyber capabilities will initially be restricted to trusted organizations through Daybreak Access.

8. Lululemon $Lululemon(LULU.US) reported Q2’26 revenue of $2.4B, below estimates of $2.46B and down 4% YoY, while comparable sales fell 9%. EPS came in at $2.92, including a $0.86 tariff-refund benefit, with gross margin up 200 bps YoY to 60.5%. The company cut FY26 guidance to $10.35B–$10.5B in revenue versus $11.04B expected and EPS of $9.48–$9.73 versus $10.88 expected. Q3 guidance was also weak, with revenue expected at $2.29B–$2.32B versus $2.53B expected and EPS of $0.93–$0.98 versus $2.40 expected. Management said it is taking a “prudent approach” with the revised full-year outlook, while Michael Burry said: “Today, lululemon (LULU) is the trickster in my portfolio. This time the trickster is my largest position, and it does seem determined to take me where mermaids fear to tread.”

9. Robinhood $Robinhood(HOOD.US) had its best day in over a year, rising 15% after a Morgan Stanley upgrade and renewed attention around Robinhood Chain. Part of the move may have come after Ansem, one of crypto’s most influential voices, posted his Robinhood thesis to 1.3M followers, highlighting the company’s growing onchain opportunity. Since launching July 1, Robinhood Chain has generated $34.6B in cumulative DEX volume, 576M transactions, and 12.3M addresses, with daily DEX volume recently hitting a record $1.5B and users paying $3.75M in fees on September 1. More than 190 tokenized stocks are now live, producing over $3B in cumulative DEX volume, while RWA daily volume reached a record $390M, including $217M from memecoin/tokenized-stock pairs. Robinhood’s onchain ecosystem has also grown to more than $750M in TVL while generating billions in perpetual-futures volume. The market appears to be waking up to the idea that Robinhood Chain may not be fully priced in, with the potential to become a new 9-figure revenue stream — and possibly much larger if growth continues.

10. Mira Murati’s AI startup Thinking Machines is reportedly in talks to raise more than $1B at a roughly $40B valuation, according to The Information. Accel is in talks to lead the round, while Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) is also considering participating. The raise follows the July launch of Thinking Machines’ first model, Inkling, and the company is already generating hundreds of millions in annualized revenue despite being less than 2 years old. The proposed valuation is below the $50B+ level the company sought late last year, when it discussed raising $4B–$5B.

11. U.S. diesel refining margins have surged to a record $106/barrel, topping $100 for the first time and surpassing the roughly $85/barrel peak seen during the 2022 energy crisis. The diesel crack spread has more than tripled since February, signaling extremely tight diesel supplies and much stronger potential profits for refiners. The spike reflects a severe shortage of global diesel supply amid the Iran War, with U.S. diesel inventories down to 103.4M barrels, the lowest on record for this time of year. Retail diesel prices have also climbed to $5.78/gallon, just 4 cents below the all-time high set in June 2022.

12. The Bank of Japan is reportedly leaning toward a 25 bps rate hike at its September 18 meeting, which would take rates from 1.00% to 1.25%, according to Bloomberg. Officials reportedly see inflation risks skewed to the upside, with Japan’s key inflation gauge expected to move back toward 3% as yen weakness and higher oil prices add pressure. A 50 bps hike is seen as unlikely for now, but the BOJ is leaving the door open to faster tightening later if inflation stays firm. A September move would come just 3 months after the June hike, marking the shortest gap between hikes under Governor Ueda.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

to be honest, the S&P up 1% on a day where oil makes a 3 month high is a little weird

but maybe the market has moved on from caring about rising bond yields and oil?

feels crazy to think that’s the case but this type of move today in the face of bad macro is either a trap or the market saying it doesn’t care about rate hikes, it cares about earnings

and earnings growth is accelerating

Source: amit

so have yall seen $Robinhood(HOOD.US) today orrrrr 😆

part of the reason for this move is because the MJ of crypto @blknoiz06 posted to his 1.3M followers yesterday around his HOOD thesis

ansem has been a massive Robinhood bull from the early days but he is also heavily involved in the rising on-chain activity and for those that haven’t heard…

the numbers are quite incredible:

- Robinhood Chain has generated $34.6B in cumulative DEX volume, 576M transactions, and 12.3M addresses since launching July 1.

- Daily DEX volume recently hit a record $1.5B, with users paying $3.75M in fees on September 1.

- More than 190 tokenized stocks are now live, generating over $3B in cumulative DEX volume.

- RWA activity has surged, with daily volume reaching a record $390M, including $217M from memecoin/tokenized-stock pairs.

- Robinhood’s onchain ecosystem has grown to more than $750M in TVL while also generating billions of dollars in perpetual-futures volume.

The street is realizing they have not priced in Robinhood Chain. Ansem posted his thesis on Robinhood Chain and how large it can become yesterday to millions of people who want exposure to companies innovating in the crypto space.

this is a part of their business that can produce $1B of revenue if it maintains this growth and even if it doesn’t, we are talking about a new 9-figure revenue stream for the company

& you’ve got $Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US) at $81K

higher

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Broadcom $Broadcom(AVGO.US) said it has a “high degree of confidence” it will ship $350B of AI semiconductors over the next 2 years, even if all 30 GW of demand is not deployed because of land, power, and data center constraints. The company laid out a massive AI growth path, targeting AI semiconductor revenue of roughly $58B in FY26, $115B in FY27, and $230B in FY28 — a 4x increase in just 2 years. Broadcom said every 1 GW deployed by OpenAI or Anthropic could support about $30B in annual AI revenue, while AI networking revenue is expected to grow just as fast as its XPU business. In Q3’26, Broadcom reported revenue of $29.6B, beating estimates of $29.36B and up 86% YoY, with adjusted EPS of $3.32 versus $3.24 expected. AI semiconductor revenue surged 221% YoY to $16.7B, and Broadcom expects that to accelerate to $21.7B in Q4, up 236% YoY, while also targeting $30+ EPS in FY28.

2. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) rolled out Muse Spark 1.3, saying the latest model delivers its biggest coding and agentic performance jump yet. Meta says Muse Spark 1.3 matches GPT-5.6 Sol on Terminal-Bench 2.1 with a score of 88.8 and reaches 75.4 on DeepSWE. The model is available now through Muse Code and the API. Zuckerberg also teased Watermelon and open weights coming next, signaling Meta is continuing to push aggressively on frontier coding agents and open AI distribution.

3. Nvidia-backed neocloud Nscale is telling prospective IPO investors it has roughly $103B in contracted revenue, up from $51B before its $45B compute deal with Anthropic, according to The Information. The contracts average 5.7 years, implying about $18B of future contracted revenue per year, though the figure is not current revenue or formal guidance and was described by one source as “illustrative.” Actual revenue is still much smaller but scaling quickly, rising from about $37M in Q1 2026 to more than $100M in Q2, excluding the Anthropic deal, as Nscale prepares for an IPO that could come as soon as this month.

4. HPE $Hewlett Packard Enterprise(HPE.US) expanded its Oracle $Oracle(ORCL.US) AI data center deal, with HPE set to deploy Juniper networking gear across Oracle AI data centers globally under a potential multi-year agreement. The deal covers routing, switching, networking support, and financing for OCI’s AI clusters, regional data centers, and edge networks, while HPE also issued Oracle warrants to purchase HPE shares. Separately, HPE reported Q3’26 revenue of $12.2B, beating estimates of $11.91B and up 34% YoY, with adjusted EPS of $1.11 versus $0.93 expected. Networking revenue surged 74.9% YoY to $2.9B, while Cloud & AI revenue rose 25.4% YoY to $9.0B. HPE guided Q4 revenue to $13.9B–$14.8B, above the $12.96B estimate, raised FY26 guidance, and said AI is becoming a multi-year growth driver as record backlog supports the outlook.

5. Cantor Fitzgerald initiated Tempus $Tempus AI(TEM.US) at Overweight with an $80 price target, arguing the company is being mispriced as a traditional life sciences data vendor rather than an AI-powered platform business. The firm says Tempus’ Data & Applications segment has a stronger growth and margin profile than the market is giving it credit for, with 26% growth and 76% gross margins. Cantor believes the segment should be compared more closely to platform peers like $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US), $Snowflake(SNOW.US), $Datadog(DDOG.US), and $Reddit(RDDT.US) rather than slower-growing data-vendor peers, creating a favorable upside risk/reward.

6. Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) launched Gemini 3.8 Flash Cyber, a new cybersecurity-focused AI model that scored 86.2% on CyberGym and 47.2% on CWE-Bench. Google says the model has a 70%+ success rate identifying vulnerabilities across 20 programming languages and produced 2.6x more correct patches than larger models on real Chrome security bugs. Initial access is limited to government agencies and cybersecurity partners through Google’s Fairwind program.

7. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 5.7M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.8M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.7M contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 1.0M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 959K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 732K contracts, $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) with 675K contracts, $Dell Tech(DELL.US) with 633K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 557K contracts, and $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 536K contracts.

8. JPMorgan says a 5% 10-year Treasury yield could be the level that starts to pressure stocks, with Grace Peters noting that “5% psychologically has an impact” and could trigger a knee-jerk equity selloff. She sees a potential 5%-8% correction into the midterms, but views that as a healthy pullback rather than a structural break. JPMorgan remains constructive on stocks longer term, with its thesis centered on a capex-driven earnings supercycle, while the key medium-term test for AI will be whether the spending translates into real returns.

9. Berenberg initiated Rocket Lab $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) at Buy with an $83 price target, implying about 29%-35% upside, calling it the only end-to-end public pure-play in space across launch, satellites, components, and spectrum. The firm says Rocket Lab has an effective monopoly in dedicated small-lift launch, is entering medium-lift with Neutron, and is benefiting from rapid growth in satellite manufacturing and components as space budgets hit records. Berenberg also said the Iridium acquisition adds scarce global spectrum and recurring applications revenue, while Rocket Lab’s vertical integration gives it long-term optionality not fully reflected in the stock’s valuation. While acknowledging execution risk and a high multiple, the firm called Rocket Lab one of the most compelling long-term assets in the space sector and said it would buy or add on volatility.

10. The 60+ day delinquency rate on U.S. subprime auto loans has climbed to roughly 5.2%, the highest level on record and more than double where it was four years ago. Serious subprime auto delinquencies are now about 1.7 percentage points above their 2008 financial crisis peak, while prime auto loan delinquencies have also risen to around 0.4%, near the highest level since 2011. At the same time, total U.S. auto debt increased by $28B in Q2 2026 to a record $1.71T.

11. Onchain tokenized equity holders have reached a record 1.9M, up 134% month-over-month and 1,360% year-to-date. Just 10 months ago, fewer than 100,000 people held tokenized assets, but demand for 24/7 markets and access to names tied to the record IPO wave, including SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, has accelerated adoption. Jupiter, the largest onchain trading platform on Solana, has driven much of the growth, with 61% of volume now happening during off-hours and active tokenized equity traders up 46% month-over-month.

12. Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT.US) will begin disclosing Azure revenue as part of a major FY27 reporting overhaul, shifting from three business segments to two: Agents & Infrastructure and Devices & Consumer. For Q1 FY27, Microsoft expects Azure growth of 44%-45% in constant currency, Agents & Infrastructure revenue of $75.15B-$75.75B, Devices & Consumer revenue of $14.7B-$15.2B, Microsoft 365 Commercial Cloud growth of about 17% in constant currency, and Search & Ads ex-TAC growth in the mid-to-high single digits. The new structure marks Microsoft’s biggest reporting change since adopting its prior three-segment model in FY2016.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

$Broadcom(AVGO.US) absolutely crushed earnings

if hock is legit guiding to $30 of EPS by FY 28, on a 20x multiple this is a $600 stock for a company growing 50%+

even at a 15x multiple, this is a $450 stock

now imagine they do $40-$50 of EPS and we keep the same 15-20x multiple which feels pretty reasonable for 50% growth…we get into that $700-$1000 range

however, stock is flat because most of that growth will be because of OpenAI and Anthropic

ultimately much of the semiconductor optimism is still tied to those two companies continuing to spend, same for Nvidia and the hyperscalers

going to be important to see if $Broadcom(AVGO.US) Broadcom can actually generate meaningful revenues from those companies because right now it seems to be a levered bet on them which is also why the stock is discounted and has been flat all year

Source: amit

TRUMP:

- I COULDN’T CARE LESS ABOUT IRAN

- I LIKE OUR POSITION ON THE STRAIT

- WHEN WILL THE IRANIAN PEOPLE STAND UP AND FIGHT

well, welcome to September folks

Source: amit

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)

PALANTIR WINS A NEW U.S. ARMY TITAN PRODUCTION CONTRACT.

- The U.S. Army awarded Palantir a prime agreement to produce and deliver 8 new TITAN ground station systems, 4 Advanced and 4 Basic, with additional technology integration and operational fielding.

- TITAN is the Army’s next-generation AI/ML-powered deep-sensing platform, combining data from space, high-altitude, aerial, and terrestrial sensors to generate targeting intelligence for mission command and long-range precision fires.

- Palantir is the prime contractor, overseeing manufacturing, delivery, and the software powering TITAN, alongside partners including Anduril, L3Harris, Sierra Nevada, Strategic Technology Consulting, and World Wide Technology.

- Palantir USG President & CTO Akash Jain: “TITAN was shaped by the Soldiers who used it, in the conditions they used it in, against the standard they set. That is the only way a system like this earns its place in the field.”

This is a really, really important deal because TITAN puts Palantir at the center of the Army’s AI-enabled battlefield architecture.

It also reinforces Palantir’s role as a prime defense contractor, not just a software vendor, giving it deeper ownership of mission-critical systems and potentially expanding its long-term opportunity across the U.S. military.

LETS. GO.

PTFB.

Source: amit

$Dell Tech(DELL.US)

Dell once again with a MONSTER beat and raise.

- Revenue: $47.0B vs. $44.9B est, +58% YoY, a quarterly record.

- Adj. EPS: $7.04 vs. $4.91 est, +203% YoY from $2.32.

- AI Servers: $16.4B revenue, roughly +100% YoY; Dell booked a massive $60.9B of AI server orders during the quarter.

- AI Backlog: surged to a record $95B, up from $51.3B last quarter, one of the biggest numbers in the report.

- Infrastructure: Traditional servers/networking revenue $10.5B, +122% YoY; storage $4.9B, +26%.

- FY27 Revenue Guide: raised dramatically to ~$192B, versus the prior $165B–$169B range.

Incredible print.

Source: amit

Red candles just hit any hint of momentum we were seeing today based on these two headlines:

- Reports of explosions heard in southern Iran, Qeshm island, Bandar Abbas, Chabahar, and Konarak port. Reports of possible new US airstrikes in Iran as with the Konarak naval base being targeted several times.

- U.S. embassy in Jerusalem has issued a warning stating that "Americans in the Middle East should exercise heightened vigilance" amid the risk of further regional escalation.

Crude just below $90, last time it touched $90 was July 23rd.

Source: amit

CAN YOU BELIEVE IT IS SEPTEMBER?

Historically, it is the worst month of the year.

September is usually down 0.6% on average and only higher around 45% of the time. It has also been the worst month over the past 10 years and the 3rd worst month in a midterm year.

Stocks are red in the premarket has two Saudi oil tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz last night, each vessel carrying 2M barrels of oil.

Crude is up 3% to $87.5 and the 10-yr yield just hit its highest level since Jan 2025. September rate hike probabilities are now 65%, up from 30% last week.

At the same time, last year September was very strong because the S&P took a big drawdown in April with liberation day. This year, the S&P already had a 10% correction in March and the deleveraging event in July took most high-beta names down 40-50%.

The question now is if those two drawdowns happening were enough to avoid a normal September hit.

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Tesla $Tesla(TSLA.US) rose 5% today, marking its best day since early July. The move comes ahead of Tesla’s upcoming Cybercab Launch Event, where investors will be watching for concrete updates on robotaxi deployment, Cybercab production, autonomy progress, and whether Tesla can turn the vehicle from a concept into a real revenue-generating fleet. Tesla has already disclosed that Cybercab production has started, with public-road engineering tests and employee rides beginning at Giga Texas. The key question is whether the event delivers actual deployment details rather than another demo, including timing, fleet size, city expansion, and cost-per-mile economics.

2. Treasury Secretary Bessent today at the G20 summit said he believes the Japanese government and Bank of Japan will take actions that lead to a stronger yen. On the Fed, he said he would not speculate on what policymakers may or may not do, but added that traditionally “you don’t raise into a supply shock.” On bonds, Bessent said he and Warsh are “on the same page,” while noting he does not believe he can change the market’s equilibrium price. He also said Trump believes Iran is not ready to make a deal yet, and that Operation Outcast is aimed at creating conditions that bring Iran back to the table.

3. Anthropic has reportedly signed a $35B cloud deal with Lambda, an Nvidia-backed cloud provider, according to WSJ. The twist: Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) is effectively the landlord. The data center is being built by Hut 8 in Nueces County, Texas, and Nvidia signed its own agreement with Hut 8 a few weeks ago to lock down the capacity. Lambda will use that space to run chips it bought from Nvidia, which is also one of its investors. The deal highlights how Nvidia is extending its role beyond selling GPUs and deeper into the AI infrastructure stack with financing, capacity access, cloud partners, and the physical data center footprint behind frontier AI demand.

4. The FTC and 22 states are reportedly preparing to sue Amazon $Amazon(AMZN.US) over alleged secret ad price hikes. The FTC is expected to claim Amazon manipulated its ad auctions by inserting its own “soft reserve” bid above the runner-up bid, effectively raising the minimum price advertisers had to pay. The practice allegedly began in 2018 and generated tens of billions of dollars over 7 years. In recent years, Amazon allegedly used the mechanism to raise minimum bids 70%–80% of the time, with the FTC claiming it increased pay-per-click costs by as much as 50% on major shopping days. Amazon generated $68B in advertising revenue in 2025, and this would mark the FTC’s third major case against the company after its Prime case and ongoing monopoly lawsuit.

5. Retail investors bought roughly $250M of Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) shares on Wednesday, their 3rd-largest daily purchase since mid-May. That extended the retail buying streak to 15 consecutive trading sessions, with investors purchasing more than $2.5B of Nvidia stock over that period. For context, the largest daily retail purchase came in late February at about $1.0B. Over the last 12 months, retail investors have bought roughly $30.0B of Nvidia shares, the most of any Magnificent 7 company.

6. The White House published details of the U.S.–Venezuela oil deal, saying Venezuela has granted North American Blue Energy Partners 100-year concessions for 17 oil fields. The fields reportedly contain roughly 65B barrels of proven oil reserves, while NABEP plans to invest up to $100B into Venezuelan oil infrastructure to rapidly increase production. As part of the deal, the U.S. government receives a 35% equity stake in NABEP’s parent company at “zero cost to taxpayers,” the right to purchase 20% of all current and future production at production cost, and the right of first refusal on the remaining 80%. The U.S. also gets veto power over board appointments, with a majority of NABEP’s board required to be U.S. citizens. Venezuela is expected to receive roughly $200B in royalties and tax payments over the first 25 years, while the White House is calling it the “biggest oil deal in world history.”

7. U.S. annual interest expense has climbed to a record 18.5% of federal government revenue, officially surpassing the prior record of 18.4% set in 1991. This share has more than quadrupled over the last 4 years as interest costs on public debt have surged. Annual interest expense now stands at a record $1.25T, more than 4x the level seen in 1991. Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield is trading around 5.21%, just 13 bps below its highest level since 2007. For context, the 30-year yield was around 8.00% in 1991, highlighting how much larger the U.S. debt burden has become.

8. BofA reiterated its Buy rating on Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) with an $810 price target, highlighting the potential launch of Meta’s consumer AI agent Hatch in early September inside Instagram and WhatsApp. Hatch can reportedly browse websites and navigate user interfaces to complete autonomous tasks like purchases, restaurant bookings, form filling, and communications. Meta is also reportedly targeting an October launch for its new AI model, Watermelon, which has shown frontier-level performance on certain internal benchmarks, with Hatch expected to integrate Watermelon’s automation capabilities after launch. BofA sees a major long-term opportunity in consumer AI agents, with Meta’s global user base giving it a significant adoption advantage, but said success will depend on ease of use, real utility, ecosystem integration, user trust around automation and security, and subscription pricing that creates consumer value while earning a return on Meta’s compute investment.

9. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 4.4M contracts, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 3.3M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.3M contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 1.0M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 952K contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 606K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 561K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 470K contracts, $PG & E(PCG.US) with 460K contracts, and $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) with 453K contracts.

10. Trump said interest rates are “too high” and said he has “a lot of respect” for Fed’s Warsh, adding that Warsh will “do what he has to do.” On Iran, Trump said any strikes would be limited, while noting that a lot of oil is still coming out of the Strait of Hormuz. He said ships came through Hormuz last night with Navy assistance and that the U.S. is averaging about 30 ships per night out of the Strait. Trump also said Iran “doesn’t know who the leader is,” adding, “we’ll see what happens.”

11. Take-Two $Take-Two Interactive Software(TTWO.US) fell 7% as GTA 6 leaks continued ahead of the November 19 release. Recent leaked footage has reportedly shown combat, vehicle theft, the return of the six-star wanted system, a biplane flight over Vice City, and a 4.5-minute Lucia story clip. The pressure reflects growing concern around how much of the game is being revealed before launch, even as GTA 6 remains one of the most anticipated releases in gaming history.

12. China’s CXMT has reportedly started small-scale production of HBM3E, the advanced memory used in AI processors including Nvidia’s H200 and Blackwell GPUs, according to The Information. Alibaba’s T-Head and Cambricon are already testing CXMT’s HBM with their AI chips and could begin using it in products as early as 2027, with CXMT planning to expand production next year. The development could ease a key bottleneck for China’s domestic AI-chip industry, which remains restricted from buying the most advanced foreign HBM. The caveat is that CXMT is still facing low yields and remains roughly 3–5 years behind the leading HBM players, while $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US) are already mass-producing HBM4 and sampling HBM4E.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

everyone at this G20 summit is saying the high bond yields aren't an issue and growth will solve everything

bessent went as far as to say, "well, the 10-year is actually felt since Trump took office."

which, he's right about because it was at 4.8% in January 2025 but it's also ignoring that at the time, the administration was freaking out about how to bring yields down which seems like the same concern today given the treasury said they'd buy back $1T of bonds last week

who knows...maybe the market can handle high yields?

yes, the 40T in debt really isn't the biggest short term concern since everyone continues to trade in USD but the cost of refinancing the $10T of debt we have to sell by end of year is affected by yields which makes it feel like something that matters more than these business leaders are saying

not to mention, the easiest way to get yields down is for the fed to raise rates since then there will be more incentive for people to buy bonds, but raising rates isn't really what the administration wants

very weird macro we are in but if stocks can handle high yields then maybe it is the new normal!

Source: amit

TRUMP:

- THE PEOPLE WHO ARE AGAINST DATACENTERS WANT TO BE POOR

- CHINA COULD NOT BE HAPPIER WITH THIS ANTI DATACENTER MOVEMENT

Source: amit

Over the weekend…

- US strikes Iran for the first time in 30 days

- Iran strikes US bases

- Trump vows to strike back

- Iran vows to not tolerate any strikes

10-year treasury yield hits a new 52 week high 🫠

Source: amit

they really pumped everything 5 min after Warsh’s speech as if he wasn’t the most hawkish we’ve ever seen 💀

40 min later everything reacted the way it probably should have right after his speech

still…kinda feels like he was hawkish to ensure credibility vs actually signaling he is going to hike

future market now pricing a 60% chance vs 32% yesterday for raising rates

what do people think? september hike coming?

Source: amit