amit

Man...these token costs are starting to seriously become an issue.

Yes, companies want to generate as many useful tokens as possible, but they really don't want to pay for them if open-source alternatives exist.

Anthropic and OpenAI are starting to realize the reality of this and have started to give out as much free compute as they can in order to lock startups into using their models over others, as per the WSJ.

This is probably a necessary thing to do for these model companies and they have capital to subsidize giving away the compute, but it also speaks to how serious the wars for tokens are becoming.

As both OpenAI and Anthropic get ready to go public, they need more levers for growth and it feels like rev-sharing with many of the companies they work with, or some version of sharing in the upside in exchange for compute, may be part of the way they lock people into their models so that they don't go the cheaper route for tokens.

Or, they try to drive token costs down further and find their margin in different areas, but more and more companies are questioning how much they should be paying for tokens.

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. SpaceX $SpaceX(SPCX.US) will be added to the Nasdaq 100 tomorrow before the market opens, creating forced buying from mutual funds and ETFs that track the index and collectively manage roughly $800B in AUM. SpaceX’s initial weighting will be about 1%, based on free-float market cap, which excludes insider and restricted shares. That weighting could grow over time as lockups lift, the public float expands, and Nasdaq rebalances the index in September and December.

2. Samsung Electronics prelim Q2 operating profit surged 19x YoY to roughly $58.4B, beating $55.3B consensus, driven by booming AI memory demand. Revenue came in slightly below expectations at about $111.8B vs. $113.1B consensus, but still rose 129% YoY. On an operating income basis, Samsung is now arguably the most profitable company in the world, generating more operating profit than Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) did last quarter.

3. Robinhood $Robinhood(HOOD.US) CEO Vlad Tenev says demand for Trump Accounts has been “tremendous,” with 6M kids signing up pre-launch to express interest and millions of accounts already invested. The accounts are now officially active and open for contributions, allowing parents, grandparents, family, friends, and employers to collectively contribute up to $5,000 annually for eligible American children. SpaceX $SpaceX(SPCX.US) president Gwynne Shotwell and her husband are donating $320M of company stock to help fund Trump Accounts for more than 2M American children.

4. Broadcom $Broadcom(AVGO.US) and Apple $Apple(AAPL.US) expanded their long-standing technology partnership through 2031. Under the new multi-year agreements, Broadcom will develop and supply a range of custom ASIC silicon products for multiple generations of Apple devices.

5. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 4.4M contracts, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.3M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.5M contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 790K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 727K contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 668K contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 637K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 566K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 530K contracts, and $SoFi Tech(SOFI.US) with 421K contracts.

6. TeraWulf $Terawulf(WULF.US) signed a 20-year lease with Anthropic for its Justified Data campus in Kentucky, representing roughly $19B of contracted revenue over the initial term. The campus is expected to support about 401MW of critical IT load, with initial capacity coming online in H2 2027 and full capacity by early 2028. Separately, TeraWulf is selling its 50.1% stake in the Abernathy JV to a Fluidstack-led investor group, monetizing an approximately $450M investment.

7. Retail is levering up into options. 0DTE options now account for a record 48% of total retail options volume, more than tripling over the past five years. They also represented a record 30% of total U.S. options volume in May, well above the 2022 high of roughly 18% and the five-year average of about 21%. As short-dated trading keeps growing, the average options contract now expires in under 3 days.

8. JPMorgan says Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) potentially monetizing excess AI compute through a cloud business could be positive for returns on AI infrastructure, but the firm would rather see Meta use that capacity inside its own products. The report notes Meta could charge developers for access to models hosted on its infrastructure or rent raw compute to third parties, with JPM estimating 1GW of capacity could generate around $20B in annual revenue and several dollars of EPS. Still, JPM argues the bigger upside is Meta using its compute, 4B+ users, and AI products across Family of Apps to drive internal inference demand, which would support continued heavy capex rather than implying a slowdown.

9. Michael Saylor’s Strategy $Strategy(MSTR.US) sold 3,588 BTC over the last two weeks for roughly $216M as part of its new Bitcoin Monetization Program, which allows up to $1.25B of BTC sales. The latest sale included 2,225 BTC at an average price of $60,773, following the prior week’s sale of 1,363 BTC at $59,256. Strategy still holds 843,775 BTC, with an average acquisition cost of $75,476 per BTC.

10. AI giants OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google are handing out free compute credits worth hundreds of thousands of dollars to win startup customers, per WSJ. The battle for startups is intensifying as top AI labs offer discounts and credits to lock in the next generation of enterprise users. The strategy is simple: subsidize usage now, drive early adoption, and turn today’s startup customers into durable long-term revenue streams.

11. Deutsche Bank says U.S. public debt is the clearest macro risk to American dominance. Federal deficits have stayed around 5%–6% of GDP since 2022 despite the economy being near full employment, while debt held by the public is set to surpass 100% of GDP this year. Interest payments now exceed defense spending and are the fastest-growing budget item, with the CBO projecting a $1.9T FY2026 deficit and public debt rising to 120% of GDP by 2036.

12. Leopold Aschenbrenner’s next investment target filed for Nasdaq this Friday. SK Hynix $SK hynix(SKHY.US) is raising $28B, with Situational Awareness indicating interest in up to $7B of shares. SK Hynix has roughly 59% of the global HBM market, about 70% of Nvidia’s $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) HBM4 allocation, Nvidia alone represents 27% of revenue, and its entire 2026 chip lineup is already sold out. SK Hynix will be going public on the Nasdaq via ADRs and will be one of the largest foreign memory companies, now worth $1T.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

$Reddit(RDDT.US) it was coiling up, back to $200 👌

30% CAGR on EPS until 2030 did not deserve the multiple it was trading at, neither did 70% revenue growth

this stock was trading in the $250s for a decent period of time, it's made a pretty large move since the $140s but does not feel like hype, feels like the market is back to rewarding some of the growth from SaaS and ad-tech companies

$Zeta Global(ZETA.US) and $Meta Platforms(META.US) in the ad space also up nicely

Source: amit

the greatest experiment in human history turns 250 years old 🇺🇸

deeply grateful to the opportunities this country has given me and for the people that have fought to maintain its freedom

Source: amit

Why markets got hit with some downside today…

So, it’s important to note that the S&P $SPX was down a mere 0.13% to end the day and is up 2.2% over the past week.

Even the Nasdaq is up 1% over the past week.

It feels like we had some momentum unwind today which is why the most high-beta names, in this case the semis, were down 10-15%.

Why the unwind?

- July is usually good month for stocks but in the past 5 years, has been down 5% on average for momentum stocks. My logic is people take profits going into the summer after a strong Q1 but regardless, July is not good for momentum historically.

- The $Meta Platforms(META.US) news basically scared the street into thinking there are no more compute constraints and that the capex build is over.

- Nvidia launching a new product today to backstop neoclouds is once again leading to claims of circular financing.

To me, this drawdown feels normal to start July but also it is the 5th type of ugly day we’ve seen in the past few weeks where momentum just dumps hard. The bearish angle on that is the market wants to have a full correction and these dumps are a warning. The bullish angle is these dumps are very, very normal and part of a bull market. $Micron Tech(MU.US) having a monster earnings and taking a breather to consolidate isn’t the end of the memory trade but it is a short term stop to the massive euphoric sentiment around it. Same with the neoclouds, same with the photonics names, etc.

I think labor market news today is noise. The market might actually care but it really doesn’t. All they care about is capex because thats what stocks are priced on right now. Not fed hikes or cuts on a potentially weak labor report.

What matters deeply is if the demand side picture around compute has changed. If it has, the whole AI trade is over. If it hasn’t, then there is a long way to go on all levels of the stack but once again, the only alpha over the past few months has been taking advantage of these dips as the market has a mini deepseek every other week if they start to question the AI thesis.

Q2 earnings will be super important to continue justifying the earnings multiple expansion and capex guide but if the summer takes a breather on momentum, it feels like that’s probably the opportunity to continue gaining exposure to the broader AI thesis.

Without those opportunities, there would be a bubble since vertical moves always get punished and one could argue that we’ve gone so vertical that this type of a drawdown over the past few days is the healthy part of a bull market which creates the opportunities for it to continue.

Source: amit

Woah.

Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) just created a new line of business for themselves.

So, all those neoclouds like $Coreweave(CRWV.US) $Nebius(NBIS.US) $IREN(IREN.US) $Applied Digital(APLD.US) $SpaceX(SPCX.US) that have been getting deals with hyperscalers worth billions?

It’s because demand for compute, according to Jensen, is growing at a level that is beyond imagination. So, companies need to secure more compute.

But, many of these neoclouds are struggling to finance large GPU deployments, even after securing long-term compute demand.

So…Nvidia is going to help them out and share in the upside.

“This new model enables AI clouds to procure NVIDIA infrastructure for AI-native, enterprise and ISV customers through economic alignment with a revenue-sharing and credit-support model. Through the partnership, AI clouds will sell NVIDIA-powered cloud services, with NVIDIA earning both standard product revenue and a share of the cloud revenue on the supported capacity. This structure accelerates adoption of NVIDIA platforms among the high-growth, high-conviction AI native sector, and provides NVIDIA with a recurring, usage-linked earnings stream.”

Looks like Nvidia is going to make sure the best neoclouds don’t fail and this also shifts from a one-time GPU sale to a recurring, usage-based revenue stream…which just creates many more longer-term monetization opportunities.

Source: amit

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) DA Davidson upgrades Palantir to Buy from Neutral, PT $175

Karp going viral by speaking on national television & saying the truth about tokens, software, and compute can definitely make some analysts get a bit more excited

Source: amit

OPENAI CONSIDERING GIVING US GOVERNMENT A 5% STAKE IN THE COMPANY.

Okay, this is bullish if you now assume that the government will be very incentivized to make sure AI doesn’t fail…

This is bearish if you assume that OpenAI is having some serious issues and now the US gov will have to hold the bag when things don’t work out.

I think one point of logic here for the Trump admin is that if 50% of GDP growth is capex and OpenAI has $1.4T of spending commitments, then OpenAI is a big part of all that capex leading to more GDP growth so maybe the Trump admin wants a stake to ensure that trillions continue to be spent on datacenters and OpenAI doesn’t fail. If they fail, no capex which means no GDP growth.

Also, what does this mean for Anthropic? Would they want their biggest competitor to be this close to the US gov? Would they consider giving 5% for ensuring that they will also have a final resort for financial support?

Many more questions than answers if this becomes real now…

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) is reportedly developing a cloud business called Meta Compute to sell access to excess AI capacity, per Bloomberg. The company is considering offering AI model access hosted on Meta infrastructure, similar to AWS Bedrock, raw AI compute capacity closer to CoreWeave, and developer access to Meta’s data centers, chips, and models. The market was split on its views today of the situationL if Meta has enough excess compute to sell, it suggests parts of the market may not be as compute-constrained as believed, which could pressure neoclouds like $Coreweave(CRWV.US) $Nebius(NBIS.US) $IREN(IREN.US) and raise questions about future capex intensity for semis. All the neoclouds were down 7-10% today. However, if Meta realizes AI compute and cloud services can become a major business line, it may end up spending even more to compete with $Amazon(AMZN.US), $Microsoft(MSFT.US), and $Alphabet(GOOGL.US), turning “idle compute” into the start of a much larger Meta Cloud buildout. $Meta Platforms(META.US) was up 8% today.

2. Palantir CEO Alex Karp was on CNBC today and criticized frontier AI labs for overselling models, raising IP/trust concerns, and pushing costly token usage without enough real enterprise outcomes. His main argument came down to one point: critical infrastructure and enterprises cannot just plug in LLMs and hope they work. He argued that models need an application layer, Palantir’s ontology, to make AI safe, auditable, and operational. His broader message was that frontier labs are selling tokens, while Palantir is on the fontlines working with businesses to implement AI in a way that transforms their enterprise vs trying to increase token spend.

3. Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US) is committing $250M to Trump Accounts as America marks its 250th year, aiming to give 1M American children a financial head start. For U.S. employees, Micron will match up to $1,000 per child, while children in its communities across seven states will receive $250 seed contributions. The initiative comes alongside Micron’s more than $200B U.S. manufacturing investment, expected to create 90,000+ jobs. Micron also expanded its strategic partnership with General Motors $General Motors(GM.US), giving GM long-term supply of LPDRAM, NOR, and UFS NAND for AI-enabled in-cabin experiences and advanced driver assistance systems. The agreement is backed by Micron’s $2B modernization of its Manassas, Virginia fab, which began production this year.

4. Robinhood $Robinhood(HOOD.US) announced a massive slate of product updates at its World Is Flat event: 1M+ funded customers outside the U.S., Robinhood Crypto launching in the UK and Canada, a license to expand brokerage services in Singapore, maker orders for U.S. crypto customers, Agentic Trading for crypto, and the launch of Robinhood Chain with AI-native token swaps, liquidity pool discovery, and support for tokenized real-world assets. Robinhood is also rolling out EU perpetual futures for commodities, ETFs, and FX with up to 10x leverage, Robinhood Cortex for Gold subscribers, and Robinhood Earn, allowing eligible U.S. customers to lend USDG onchain through self-custody and target an estimated 7% APY.

5. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 3.1M contracts, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.9M contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 1.5M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.2M contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 1.1M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 899K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 897K contracts, $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) with 860K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 828K contracts, and $Intel(INTC.US) with 679K contracts.

6. Nasdaq $Nasdaq(NDAQ.US) said companies listing on its exchange raised $129.3B in the first half of 2026, marking the strongest first half for listings in U.S. exchange history.

7. Japanese retail investors are ramping up leveraged stock bets as risk appetite heats up globally. Margin buying on the Tokyo Stock Exchange has climbed to about $40B, with levels recently hitting the highest since 1994. Japan’s margin ratio has risen to 6–8, well above the 10-year average of around 4, while individual names like Kioxia and Fujikura are showing extreme leverage. The trend mirrors rising margin debt across the U.S., Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, raising concerns that stretched positioning could amplify volatility if markets reverse.

8. U.S. employers announced 45,849 job cuts in June, down 53% from May and the lowest monthly total since December 2025, per Challenger. AI was the top cited layoff reason for the fourth straight month, tied to 14K cuts in June and 101,743 cuts YTD. Hiring plans were up 10% in the first half of the year, though June hiring plans fell 44% from May.

9. Retail investors accounted for just 6% of total Magnificent 7 $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Apple(AAPL.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Tesla(TSLA.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) trading volume over the five trading days ending Friday, the lowest level in 4 years. Retail participation was lower than on roughly 85% of trading days since 2022, a sharp reversal from periods in 2023 and 2024 when retail made up more than 20% of Mag 7 volume and stayed above 15% for much of 2025. The 5-day average of retail Mag 7 trading volume has fallen to about 25M shares, the lowest in at least 18 months and down 79% from the April 2025 peak of roughly 120M shares.

10. BYD is on track to retake the global fully electric vehicle sales lead from Tesla $Tesla(TSLA.US) in Q2. BYD delivered 557,090 BEVs during the quarter, while Tesla is expected to report around 396,500 deliveries next week. BYD’s June sales across all vehicle types rose 5.5% to 403,472 units, with overseas markets accounting for 43% of sales. Tesla Korea also raised Model 3 and Model Y prices by up to $4,500 one day after passing the government’s EV subsidy evaluation.

11. Wells Fargo says it is bullish into Q3 and expects a strong summer rally before potential midterm-driven volatility in September. The firm says positioning has reset, early July seasonality turns positive, earnings season should be strong, tariff refunds could support profits, AI infrastructure dips remain buyable, and “Trump Accounts” could add up to $20B of price-insensitive inflows in Q3. Its 8 tactical ideas include $Advanced Energy(AEIS.US) for AI infrastructure and data center growth, $Argenx(ARGX.US) for its Vyvgart Phase 3 myositis readout, $Cummins(CMI.US) for prime power demand and EPA 2027 upside, $Keurig Dr Pepper(KDP.US) for improving beverage trends, $MSCI(MSCI.US) for data and quant investing demand, $Palo Alto Networks(PANW.US) for cybersecurity consolidation and AI exposure, $Planet Fitness - CL(PLNT.US) for better comps, and $United Rentals(URI.US) for rental rate inflection and non-res construction recovery.

12. Global gold-backed ETFs saw 38.3 tonnes of outflows last week, the largest weekly decline since September 2022. In dollar terms, withdrawals hit a record $4.7B, led by North America at 23.6 tonnes, followed by Asia and Europe. The largest U.S. gold ETF, $GLD, saw $2B in outflows alone, bringing June withdrawals to $3.2B and putting it on pace for its second-worst month since February 2021.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

$Robinhood(HOOD.US)

ROBINHOOD WORLD IS FLAT EVENT ANNOUNCEMENTS:

- 1M+ funded customers outside the US

- Launching Robinhood Crypto in the UK

- Maker orders for Crypto launching for US customers

- Robinhood Crypto officially launching in Canada with 0% trading fees for 90 days

- Granted license to expand brokerage services in Singapore

- Launching Agentic Trading for Crypto

- Robinhood Chain officially launches with AI native features to swap tokens, find liquidity pools, and adapt to tokenized real world assets

- New perpetual futures for commodities, ETFs, and FX with up to 10x leverage rolling out in the EU

- Robinhood Cortex with advanced reasoning launching to Gold Subscribers

- Robinhood Earn is rolling out to eligible US customers which allows users to lend USDG onchain through a self-custody wallet and earn an estimated 7% APY

Multiple events per year with multiple products/launches per event.

Robinhood. Does. Not. Stop.

Source: amit

$Meta Platforms(META.US)

BREAKING: Meta is now building a cloud business to sell excess AI compute, as per Bloomberg.

If this is true…then it is exactly what the market has been waiting for.

- Justifies the heavy capex spend

- Diversifies a line of business outside of advertising

- If META can sell compute…they can probably begin selling more B2B agentic services to those same clients using their compute

- Compute constraint narrative-driven stocks have RALLIED all year…adding that narrative to $Meta Platforms(META.US) could be a potential game changer to sentiment around the stock.

This is personally a pivot I have been waiting for all year as a shareholder and as annoying as it has been to buy this name (this rip might end up being sold off) this was one of the CORE reasons to continue DCA-ing.

Hoping this is true but if Zucks gets into the neocloud game…it could be very exciting.

LFG.

Source: amit

Singapore Meetup!

It was another reminder to me that no matter where you go across the world, we all just want to talk stocks.

All of us exist in this super, super niche world in which we actually care about Micron and Kevin Warsh so it just requires a bit of extra work to make sure we can find our tribe in person 😂

Really grateful to connect in real life with people from different cultures that believe in the same principles around what it means to be an investor.

Thank you to everyone who came out!

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) and Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) expanded their partnership to deliver sovereign AI for the U.S. government and critical infrastructure. The partnership combines Nvidia AI infrastructure and Nemotron models with Palantir’s platforms, allowing agencies to deploy models on proprietary data. Palantir CEO Alex Karp said: “Combining Palantir infrastructure with NVIDIA’s AI and Nemotron models will allow the U.S. government to unleash the full power of LLMs while removing the underlying security risks and rational concerns around proprietary insights migrating into the weights of closed models."

2. Rocket Lab $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) announced a definitive agreement to acquire Iridium $Iridium Comm(IRDM.US) for $54/share in a cash-and-stock deal, implying an enterprise value of roughly $8B. This is a major move because it pushes Rocket Lab beyond space infrastructure and deeper into vertically integrated space communications with recurring, high-margin subscription revenue. Iridium adds a global satellite network, accelerates direct-to-device and space connectivity, and gives Rocket Lab the ability to design, build, launch, operate, and now monetize satellites through long-term communications services.

3. Robinhood $Robinhood(HOOD.US) continues to show strong product momentum. Vlad Tenev, CEO, shared that Robinhood Banking has surpassed $3B in deposits and 200K customers, up from $1.6B and 110K at the end of March. Agentic trading has also seen 50K+ customers open accounts in its first few weeks, with millions of dollars traded daily across equities and options. Robinhood now has 50K+ funded custodial accounts just three months after launch, while 855K+ customers received allocation in the SpaceX IPO through IPO Access.

4. Hedge funds sold the most U.S. information technology equities in the week ending June 25 since Goldman’s data began in 2016, even more than during the August 2024 Nasdaq correction. Overall, hedge funds sold the most U.S. equities since the April 2025 “Liberation Day” selloff. Magnificent 7 exposure has also fallen to 14.5% of total U.S. hedge fund exposure, near a 3-year low, after dropping 7 percentage points since the start of 2026, the biggest six-month decline since the 2022 bear market.

5. Agility Robotics is going public via Churchill Capital Corp XI $Churchill Capital XI(CCXI.US) in a deal valuing the humanoid robotics company at $2.5B pre-money. The transaction is expected to raise $620M+, including a $200M PIPE led by Foxconn, with the combined company set to trade as $AGLT. Agility says it has $300M+ in multi-year orders for its Digit v5 robot, with backers including Nvidia, Amazon, SoftBank, and Foxconn.

6. Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) has reportedly capped Meta’s $Meta Platforms(META.US) use of Gemini AI models due to computing capacity constraints, per Financial Times. The limits have affected some of Meta’s internal projects, with staff told to use AI tokens more efficiently. Meta had been using Gemini to automate safety workflows, but is now leaning more on its own Muse Spark model to reduce reliance on external AI models.

7. Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US) is now a top 10 holding in the S&P 500 with a 1.9% weighting, reflecting just how important memory has become in the AI trade. Meanwhile, Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) has fallen from closer to 8.5% of the index to 6.99%, while Apple $Apple(AAPL.US) has dropped from around 7.5% to 6.18%.

8. Anthropic reportedly renegotiated part of its Amazon deal, shifting Claude pricing from compute hours to token-based usage starting next year, per The Information. The change could raise $Amazon(AMZN.US)’s costs for using Claude across products like Alexa for Shopping, Kiro, and Quick. Amazon is now reportedly evaluating OpenAI and its own Nova models to reduce reliance on Anthropic.

9. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 3.8M contracts, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.9M contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 1.4M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.1M contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 931K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 767K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 617K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 598K contracts, $Strategy(MSTR.US) with 533K contracts, and $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 489K contracts.

10. ByteDance is targeting early next year to finalize the design of its next-gen in-house CPU for AI infrastructure, per SCMP. Mass production and broader deployment are expected in H2 2027, as ByteDance looks to support AI workloads across Doubao, Seedance, and other internal platforms. Qualcomm $Qualcomm(QCOM.US) is reportedly helping with development and foundry capacity.

11. South Korea unveiled a massive $576B+ AI and chip investment push, with Samsung and SK Hynix expected to invest around $518B. Suppliers will build two new chip fab sites each in southwest Korea, while the broader plan includes a $52.7B chip packaging cluster and a goal to double DRAM output within five years.

12. U.S. online spending across all retailers hit $26.4B during Amazon $Amazon(AMZN.US) Prime Day, topping Adobe’s $26.3B estimate. Spending rose 9.3% YoY, while BNPL accounted for 6.6% of orders. However, Numerator said average household spending on Amazon fell 8.3% to $143.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

BREAKING: Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) and Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) expand their partnership to deliver sovereign AI for the US government and critical infrastructure agencies.

- The Partnership enables agencies to deploy, customize, and post-train NVIDIA Nemotron models on proprietary data.

- Combines NVIDIA AI infrastructure with Palantir platforms for sovereign, mission-critical AI.

- Gives customers control over data, IP, model weights, auditability, authorization, and post-training.

Once again, no matter what the model is…Palantir provides the infrastructure that makes any model operational to enable transformation within an enterprise.

Alex Karp: “Combining Palantir infrastructure with NVIDIA’s AI and Nemotron models will allow the U.S. government to unleash the full power of LLMs while removing the underlying security risks and rational concerns around proprietary insights migrating into the weights of closed models. Moreover, many of our US clients are already using these models, including multiple supporting critical US infrastructure — both private and public — and this will facilitate their radical expansion.”

Jensen Huang: “Open source AI is foundational to national security, public safety and U.S. technology leadership. Palantir’s Nemotron-powered intelligent engine shows how open models can strengthen America’s leadership in AI — giving U.S. government agencies a secure, customizable and fully controlled foundation to build mission-critical AI systems in support of national security.”

Source: amit

This Rocket Lab $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) acquisition is a BIG deal and makes me really excited to continue being a shareholder.

Why?

Essentially, it feels like this is another step in transforming Rocket Lab from primarily a space infrastructure company into a vertically integrated space and communications company with recurring cash flows…

- Adds a global satellite network

- Creates recurring, high-margin revenue. Iridium generates subscription-based revenue

- Accelerates direct-to-device and space connectivity

Rocket Lab can now design, build, launch, and operate satellites while also owning the communications network that generates long-term service revenue…

If $SpaceX(SPCX.US) SpaceX is the whole Space-Stack, then $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) just got MUCH closer to competing with the entire stack.

This company trades at a premium for a reason and has made MANY moves this year to continue justifying why they get that premium.

If Commercial Space TAM with rocket launches and connectivity is in the trillions…Rocket Lab is going after every layer of that TAM with this acquisition.

Source: amit

$Micron Tech(MU.US) Micron is now a top 10 holding in the S&P 500 with a 1.9% weighting.

Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) used to be closer to 8.5%, it’s now down to 6.99%.

Apple $Apple(AAPL.US) used to be 7.5%, it’s now 6.18%.

The old guys have had to make room for the new kid on the block.

Source: amit

Long post, but some thoughts on what happened in the market today…

Today was a particularly weird storm of price action because the logic going into the open was as follows:

- $Micron Tech(MU.US) crushed, saved the AI trade

- AI stocks should go higher due to MU proving its not cyclical, this should help the broader market get a lift

Instead, what we got right before the open…

- $Apple(AAPL.US) announces massive price hikes and effectively uses MU earnings to be like, “See! It’s not us, but if memory gets 86% margins, then we have to raise prices!”

- This happens right after the hottest PCE in 3 years is reported, even with oil (the biggest proponent of inflation the past few months) still coming down

- Microsoft then joins the party and raises prices across all XBOX products, once again citing memory costs

Market then proceeds to take a nasty dip in every sector…except Memory.

I think what is happening here will be studied for a long time. The hyperscalers, the companies that are RESPONSIBLE for $Micron Tech(MU.US) and $Sandisk(SNDK.US) being multibaggers, are getting destroyed because…well they can’t buy back stock, they can’t get FCF positive, and they don’t have memory’s pricing power.

In fact, this is what Melius Research came out today and said:

“Why bother owning a hyperscaler who can't buy back stock any time soon? Micron can start buying over $25B/quarter in stock during CY27. Memory will go down as THE BOTTLENECK of ALL BOTTLENECKS for this AI era. MU said that current conditions last after calendar 2027, basically guaranteeing buybacks of epic proportions, especially next calendar year.”

We are at the point where the sell-side is saying that owning the best companies in the world makes no sense when you can own the bottleneck of all bottlenecks.

Here’s the thing: I don’t know if Melius is actually wrong.

My gut tells me that 86% gross margins will not last forever, but as long as the hyperscalers are willing to pay, then the structural logic for market participants comes down to a simple question: why own the companies paying the capex over the companies benefiting from it?

The problem is obvious: if memory inflation continues to be intense, it will affect every part of the market. From automotive to datacenters to PCs. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) gets to have a tax because it’s building very IP-heavy products. Will the market allow something like memory, that is not IP-heavy, to force consumers globally to pay significantly more for the products? Also, do the memory makers even care because as long as they control supply, they can control pricing?

I’d imagine the big tech companies either lower capex to stop paying the cost, keep paying the cost, or try to innovate. They likely won’t lower capex and will most likely continue paying the cost, so there probably are some elements of them trying to focus on innovating in this area…but if there won’t be any menaingful cutoff in capex, the memory story continues.

The market fell today because higher inflation means more of a chance for rate hikes. I mean, NVDA went below 200 as MU hit all time highs. NVDA’s suppliers are more valuable than NVDA’s biggest customers. As a result, it’s creating a type of AI-flation that basically led the market to sell off everything else.

Not sure how this plays out, retail continues to buy the dip and today’s red probably gets bought…especially as earnings continue to grow…but we are in a new paradigm for how this market gives a premium to a stock and if you have pricing power over a component that matters to build AI vs being a companies that actually uses AI, you get a premium.

Source: amit

$Micron Tech(MU.US)

MICRON Q1 2026 EARNINGS:

- Major Q3 beat, reporting adjusted gross margin of 84.9%, above the 81.9% consensus.

- Q3 revenue came in at $41.46B, ahead of expectations of $35.59B.

- Adjusted EPS was $25.11, beating the $20.60 consensus estimate.

- For Q4, Micron guided revenue to $49B–$51B, above the $43.24B Street estimate.

- The company expects Q4 adjusted gross margin of around 86%, versus expectations of 83.6%.

- Management said it expects tight memory supply conditions to persist beyond calendar 2027, driven by strong AI demand across all end markets.

Pretty mind blowing numbers, Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US) helping the entire market after hours.

Source: amit

$Wendys(WEN.US)

Wendy’s is up 20% overnight as the stock is going viral on r/WallStreetBets.

The most viral post wrote this as their thesis:

“My fellow regards. We need to save Wendy’s before it’s too late. If this company goes bankrupt, we’ll all be out of a job!”

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Markets were under pressure today, with the S&P $SPY down ~1.5%, largely due to a sharp selloff in South Korea. The KOSPI fell 9.9%, its worst day since March, as fears grow around potential taxes on unrealized stock gains, heavy retail leverage, and volatility in popular names like $SpaceX(SPCX.US). The move is also weighing on U.S. memory stocks ahead of $Micron Tech(MU.US) earnings, while renewed rate-hike fears from BofA are adding more pressure.

2. Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) is replacing Verizon $Verizon(VZ.US) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, adding another mega-cap tech name to the historic index. Google now joins Amazon $Amazon(AMZN.US), Apple $Apple(AAPL.US), Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT.US), and Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) as Mag 7 companies included in the Dow.

3. U.S. home prices rose 0.3% MoM in May, the fastest monthly gain since January, and 2.5% YoY, the fastest annual growth in six months, per Redfin. Redfin said the increase reflects deals signed in April, when mortgage rates fell and demand improved. Closed home sales also reached their highest level since 2022 in May.

4. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) is reportedly working on a standalone prediction markets app internally called Arena, per NYT. Zuckerberg directed a small team to build the app after the rise of Polymarket and Kalshi, with users likely predicting outcomes using game-like points instead of money at launch. Meta has not ruled out real-money betting later, and NYT says the company could leverage Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger to scale the product, though the project remains experimental and may never launch.

5. BofA raised its 2030 global semiconductor $SMH TAM forecast to $2.7T, up from $2.3T, saying AI could drive the next $1T in chip sales over the next five years. The firm continues to see AI as the biggest growth engine for the semiconductor industry.

6. More than 6M U.S. children have been enrolled in Trump Accounts ahead of the program’s July 4 launch, according to Treasury. Around 1.4M of those children qualify for the $1,000 Treasury seed contribution.

7. Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) and Zeta $Zeta Global(ZETA.US) announced a strategic partnership to build AI infrastructure for enterprise marketing. Zeta’s Data Cloud will be rearchitected on Palantir Foundry, combining governed enterprise data with Zeta’s AI decisioning platform to connect operational intelligence, customer intelligence, and real-time marketing execution. Zeta says the partnership could drive more than $100M in annual revenue in the coming years, creating a trusted platform for agentic marketing and faster, measurable business outcomes.

8. SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son pushed back on Elon Musk’s $SpaceX(SPCX.US) orbital data center vision, arguing the AI race will be won with compute built on Earth. Son said SoftBank is focused on building “formidable” data center capacity, adding that “he who strikes first wins.” While he called Musk a “remarkable agent of change,” Son said space-based data centers face major challenges around launch, maintenance, and communication costs.

9. Rakuten Group is teaming up with AST SpaceMobile $AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US) to form a satellite-to-cell joint venture in Japan. The new JV, expected to be created this year, will purchase and operate satellites to deliver direct-to-mobile coverage, with Rakuten bringing its Japanese telecom footprint and AST providing the satellite infrastructure. The move puts Rakuten and AST in direct competition with SpaceX’s Starlink, which already offers satellite-to-cell service through carrier partnerships.

10. Taiwan’s AI stock frenzy is starting to look like a “buy anything and it goes up” market. The country’s stock market is up 100%+ over the past year, overtaking the UK, Canada, and India to become the world’s fifth-largest equity market. But leverage is flashing warning signs: margin debt tied to stock purchases has jumped 160% in 12 months, nearing pre-2000 crash levels, while brokers are raising rates, demanding more collateral, and stock-trading defaults have more than doubled in June to over NT$2B.

11. GameStop $GameStop(GME.US) said Ryan Cohen asked the board to remove his proposed CEO Performance Award from the proxy statement as the company focuses on its proposed acquisition of eBay $eBay(EBAY.US). GameStop submitted a non-binding offer to buy eBay for $125/share in cash and stock, while currently owning 4.34M eBay shares and holding option exposure to another 39.05M shares. The HSR antitrust waiting period was satisfied on June 3.

12. Cerebras $Cerebras(CBRS.US) reported Q1 revenue of $193.4M, up 94% YoY and ahead of the $181.4M estimate. The company also raised its FY26 revenue outlook to $855M–$865M, above the $824.8M estimate, and announced major AI infrastructure wins, including a $20B+ OpenAI deal for 750MW of inference compute and a multi-year AWS inference partnership.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

For those wondering why premarkets are ugly…it has to do with South Korea:

- KOSPI, South Korea’s index, fell 9.9% for the worst day since March

- Korean lawmakers are reportedly discussing taxes on unrealized stock gains which could also be causing people to sell

- $SpaceX(SPCX.US) did a complete round trip to its opening IPO price and we don’t know how many Koreans are levered in SpaceX but it is a very popular name given $Tesla(TSLA.US) was a top 5 stock in South Korea…any volatility in SpaceX could also lead to selling across the country

- KOSPI falling is hurting the memory names in the US since Samsung and SK Hynix took a pretty large dip, but you also have $Micron Tech(MU.US) earnings tomorrow so it could be people selling into the print

- Finally, you have continued fears of a rate hike with BofA coming out saying we may get 3 hikes this year

Honestly, the last time this happened…people just bought the dip on KOSPI in March. Not sure if this is the time where it actually collapses or if it’s just a typical selloff after going up 95%.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) earnings will likely be what decides where we go from here.

Source: amit

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) $Zeta Global(ZETA.US)

BREAKING: Palantir and Zeta announced a strategic partnership to build AI infrastructure for enterprise marketing.

- Zeta’s Data Cloud will be rearchitected on Palantir Foundry, combining governed enterprise data with Zeta’s AI decisioning platform.

- The goal is to connect operational intelligence, customer intelligence, and real-time marketing execution.

- Zeta says the partnership could drive more than $100M in annual revenue in the coming years.

The companies say this creates a trusted platform for agentic marketing, where AI can turn enterprise data into faster, measurable outcomes.

Nice to see two companies focused specifically on value creation for enterprises partner together to continue enabling more value.

Source: amit

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) really round tripped the entire IPO hype in a week

$1T up and $1T down

most of the float still not available yet

is anyone buying it here?

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. A major end-of-Q2 rebalancing wave could hit global markets, with JPMorgan estimating institutional investors may sell up to $165B of equities and rotate the same amount into bonds by quarter-end — the largest rebalance in at least four years. The biggest expected sellers include Japan’s GPIF at roughly $60B, Norway’s Norges Bank at around $40B, U.S. defined benefit pensions at about $55B, and the Swiss National Bank at up to $25B. Balanced mutual funds may partially offset the pressure with an estimated $15B of equity buying, but overall, quarter-end flows could create significant selling pressure across global stocks.

2. SpaceX $SpaceX(SPCX.US) reportedly signed a major compute deal with open-source AI startup Reflection AI, giving it access to Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) GB300 chips at Colossus 2, per CNBC. Reflection is expected to pay SpaceX about $150M per month starting July 1, 2026, which could total roughly $6.3B if the agreement runs through 2029. The deal adds Reflection to SpaceX’s growing AI compute customer list, alongside Anthropic, Google, and Cursor.

3. Retail investors have poured roughly $150B into the largest equity ETFs over the past month, marking the second-biggest inflow in history. The move shows just how aggressive retail demand for equities has become, even as markets continue to digest major macro and positioning risks.

4. Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) has secured a foundational role in the U.S. Army’s NGC2 data layer. The Army established the NGC2 common data layer baseline, a major step in modernizing command-and-control systems. Palantir Foundry will serve as the cloud data layer, while Anduril Lattice will serve as the tactical data layer, giving the Army a scalable foundation for AI-enabled tools, interoperability, and faster battlefield decision-making.

5. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 3.3M contracts, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.9M contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 1.2M contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 1.1M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 990K contracts, $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 970K contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 917K contracts, $Netflix(NFLX.US) with 717K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 621K contracts, and $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) with 587K contracts. Tesla led options activity with more than 3.3M contracts traded, followed by Nvidia at 2.9M, while SpaceX and Amazon both saw volume above 1M contracts.

6. BofA now expects the Fed to hike rates three times this year, reversing its prior view of no changes. The firm sees 25 bps hikes in September, October, and December, taking the Fed funds range to 4.25%–4.5% by year-end. BofA now expects the first Fed rate cuts to come in 2028.

7. Qualcomm $Qualcomm(QCOM.US) is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire AI chip startup Modular in a deal that could value the company around $4B, per Bloomberg. No final agreement has been reached, but an announcement could come in the next few weeks. Modular last raised $250M at a $1.6B valuation in September 2025, meaning the reported deal would mark a major step-up in value.

8. Trump signed two quantum-focused executive orders aimed at accelerating U.S. leadership in the space. One order pushes for a U.S. quantum computer $Infleqtion(INFQ.US) $D-Wave Quantum(QBTS.US) $IBM(IBM.US) $Rigetti Computing(RGTI.US) $IonQ(IONQ.US) $Quantinuum(QNT.US) capable of major scientific calculations, along with quantum sensors and networks, within five years. The other directs federal agencies to transition to post-quantum cryptography by 2031, strengthening cybersecurity against future quantum threats.

9. Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) is investing about $75M in A24 as part of a multi-year AI research partnership between Google DeepMind and the film studio. The deal marks Google’s first equity stake in a studio, with A24 and DeepMind working on AI tools for film production and distribution. The agreement does not give Google access to A24’s film and TV library, while A24 Labs is already developing an AI-generated storyboard tool.

10. Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US) signed a strategic agreement with Anthropic covering AI memory and storage architecture, multi-year supply, Claude enterprise adoption, and an investment in Anthropic’s Series H round. Micron will provide data center memory and storage products, including HBM, DRAM, and SSDs, while the two companies work together to optimize Anthropic’s AI infrastructure for performance, energy efficiency, and token economics.

11. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) launched Halos for Robotics, a full-stack safety system for robotics and physical AI. Agility will be the first to integrate parts of Halos into the safety architecture for Digit, its humanoid robot used in logistics, manufacturing, and warehouses. The system combines Nvidia IGX Thor, Holoscan Sensor Bridge, Halos OS, external-camera safety monitoring, and an ANAB-accredited AI Systems Inspection Lab, with 40+ companies participating in the lab program.

12. Chevron $Chevron(CVX.US) signed a 20-year power deal with Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT.US) to supply natural gas-fired electricity for a proposed West Texas data center. The project, called Kilby, is expected to deliver first power by 2028 and eventually ramp to 2.67 GW. Chevron will use Permian Basin gas to power GE Vernova turbines, with the project designed to generate its own electricity instead of drawing from the grid. Chevron is developing Kilby with Engine No. 1 and expects to make a final investment decision later this year.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit