amit

$NVDA

Nvidia is down in the premarket because DeepSeek is reportedly looking to reduce their reliance on Nvidia and Huawei by developing their own chips. 

- DeepSeek has increased hiring of chip-design engineers in recent months 

- New chip would be designed for inference

This is now becoming a trend that continues to upset the market when it comes to Nvidia.

Google and Amazon are developing huge chip businesses. Cerebras and Broadcom are partnering with OpenAI to make chips. Anthropic is reportedly securing supply to develop their own custom silicon. Now, DeepSeek as well…although because Nvidia can’t sell into China, not sure how much this would hurt them.

More and more competition just means the market is worried that those juicy gross margins may start to peak, although there is no evidence of that yet.Source: amit

$RDDT it was coiling up, back to $200 👌

30% CAGR on EPS until 2030 did not deserve the multiple it was trading at, neither did 70% revenue growth

this stock was trading in the $250s for a decent period of time, it's made a pretty large move since the $140s but does not feel like hype, feels like the market is back to rewarding some of the growth from SaaS and ad-tech companies 

$ZETA and $META in the ad space also up nicelySource: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. SpaceX $SPCX will be added to the Nasdaq 100 tomorrow before the market opens, creating forced buying from mutual funds and ETFs that track the index and collectively manage roughly $800B in AUM. SpaceX’s initial weighting will be about 1%, based on free-float market cap, which excludes insider and restricted shares. That weighting could grow over time as lockups lift, the public float expands, and Nasdaq rebalances the index in September and December.

2. Samsung Electronics prelim Q2 operating profit surged 19x YoY to roughly $58.4B, beating $55.3B consensus, driven by booming AI memory demand. Revenue came in slightly below expectations at about $111.8B vs. $113.1B consensus, but still rose 129% YoY. On an operating income basis, Samsung is now arguably the most profitable company in the world, generating more operating profit than Nvidia $NVDA did last quarter.

3. Robinhood $HOOD CEO Vlad Tenev says demand for Trump Accounts has been “tremendous,” with 6M kids signing up pre-launch to express interest and millions of accounts already invested. The accounts are now officially active and open for contributions, allowing parents, grandparents, family, friends, and employers to collectively contribute up to $5,000 annually for eligible American children. SpaceX $SPCX president Gwynne Shotwell and her husband are donating $320M of company stock to help fund Trump Accounts for more than 2M American children.

4. Broadcom $AVGO and Apple $AAPL expanded their long-standing technology partnership through 2031. Under the new multi-year agreements, Broadcom will develop and supply a range of custom ASIC silicon products for multiple generations of Apple devices.

5. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $TSLA with 4.4M contracts, $NVDA with 2.3M contracts, $AAPL with 1.5M contracts, $AMZN with 790K contracts, $SPCX with 727K contracts, $META with 668K contracts, $MSFT with 637K contracts, $INTC with 566K contracts, $MU with 530K contracts, and $SOFI with 421K contracts. 

6. TeraWulf $WULF signed a 20-year lease with Anthropic for its Justified Data campus in Kentucky, representing roughly $19B of contracted revenue over the initial term. The campus is expected to support about 401MW of critical IT load, with initial capacity coming online in H2 2027 and full capacity by early 2028. Separately, TeraWulf is selling its 50.1% stake in the Abernathy JV to a Fluidstack-led investor group, monetizing an approximately $450M investment.

7. Retail is levering up into options. 0DTE options now account for a record 48% of total retail options volume, more than tripling over the past five years. They also represented a record 30% of total U.S. options volume in May, well above the 2022 high of roughly 18% and the five-year average of about 21%. As short-dated trading keeps growing, the average options contract now expires in under 3 days.

8. JPMorgan says Meta $META potentially monetizing excess AI compute through a cloud business could be positive for returns on AI infrastructure, but the firm would rather see Meta use that capacity inside its own products. The report notes Meta could charge developers for access to models hosted on its infrastructure or rent raw compute to third parties, with JPM estimating 1GW of capacity could generate around $20B in annual revenue and several dollars of EPS. Still, JPM argues the bigger upside is Meta using its compute, 4B+ users, and AI products across Family of Apps to drive internal inference demand, which would support continued heavy capex rather than implying a slowdown.

9. Michael Saylor’s Strategy $MSTR sold 3,588 BTC over the last two weeks for roughly $216M as part of its new Bitcoin Monetization Program, which allows up to $1.25B of BTC sales. The latest sale included 2,225 BTC at an average price of $60,773, following the prior week’s sale of 1,363 BTC at $59,256. Strategy still holds 843,775 BTC, with an average acquisition cost of $75,476 per BTC.

10. AI giants OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google are handing out free compute credits worth hundreds of thousands of dollars to win startup customers, per WSJ. The battle for startups is intensifying as top AI labs offer discounts and credits to lock in the next generation of enterprise users. The strategy is simple: subsidize usage now, drive early adoption, and turn today’s startup customers into durable long-term revenue streams.

11. Deutsche Bank says U.S. public debt is the clearest macro risk to American dominance. Federal deficits have stayed around 5%–6% of GDP since 2022 despite the economy being near full employment, while debt held by the public is set to surpass 100% of GDP this year. Interest payments now exceed defense spending and are the fastest-growing budget item, with the CBO projecting a $1.9T FY2026 deficit and public debt rising to 120% of GDP by 2036.

12. Leopold Aschenbrenner’s next investment target filed for Nasdaq this Friday. SK Hynix $SKHY is raising $28B, with Situational Awareness indicating interest in up to $7B of shares. SK Hynix has roughly 59% of the global HBM market, about 70% of Nvidia’s $NVDA HBM4 allocation, Nvidia alone represents 27% of revenue, and its entire 2026 chip lineup is already sold out. SK Hynix will be going public on the Nasdaq via ADRs and will be one of the largest foreign memory companies, now worth $1T.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.Source: amit

so is this chip selloff going to be like every other chip selloff in the past two months where the dip gets bought within a few days?

or are people actually selling here

every time you think the momentum is truly fading...dip buyers come in

obviously $MU getting below $900 is psychologically ugly but I wonder if it's just sweeping liquidity to come back higher

the biggest tell for why I think the dip could get bought: $AMZN is getting ready to raise ANOTHER $25B of bonds

the hyperscalers keep levering up...to eventually spend it...on the semis

still, even with these 10-15% declines, most of the semis up 50%-200% YTD 

anyone buying today?Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. 

Here's a full recap: 

1. Palantir $PLTR and Nvidia $NVDA expanded their partnership to deliver sovereign AI for the U.S. government and critical infrastructure. The partnership combines Nvidia AI infrastructure and Nemotron models with Palantir’s platforms, allowing agencies to deploy models on proprietary data. Palantir CEO Alex Karp said: “Combining Palantir infrastructure with NVIDIA’s AI and Nemotron models will allow the U.S. government to unleash the full power of LLMs while removing the underlying security risks and rational concerns around proprietary insights migrating into the weights of closed models."

2. Rocket Lab $RKLB announced a definitive agreement to acquire Iridium $IRDM for $54/share in a cash-and-stock deal, implying an enterprise value of roughly $8B. This is a major move because it pushes Rocket Lab beyond space infrastructure and deeper into vertically integrated space communications with recurring, high-margin subscription revenue. Iridium adds a global satellite network, accelerates direct-to-device and space connectivity, and gives Rocket Lab the ability to design, build, launch, operate, and now monetize satellites through long-term communications services. 

3. Robinhood $HOOD continues to show strong product momentum. Vlad Tenev, CEO, shared that Robinhood Banking has surpassed $3B in deposits and 200K customers, up from $1.6B and 110K at the end of March. Agentic trading has also seen 50K+ customers open accounts in its first few weeks, with millions of dollars traded daily across equities and options. Robinhood now has 50K+ funded custodial accounts just three months after launch, while 855K+ customers received allocation in the SpaceX IPO through IPO Access.

4. Hedge funds sold the most U.S. information technology equities in the week ending June 25 since Goldman’s data began in 2016, even more than during the August 2024 Nasdaq correction. Overall, hedge funds sold the most U.S. equities since the April 2025 “Liberation Day” selloff. Magnificent 7 exposure has also fallen to 14.5% of total U.S. hedge fund exposure, near a 3-year low, after dropping 7 percentage points since the start of 2026, the biggest six-month decline since the 2022 bear market. 

5. Agility Robotics is going public via Churchill Capital Corp XI $CCXI in a deal valuing the humanoid robotics company at $2.5B pre-money. The transaction is expected to raise $620M+, including a $200M PIPE led by Foxconn, with the combined company set to trade as $AGLT. Agility says it has $300M+ in multi-year orders for its Digit v5 robot, with backers including Nvidia, Amazon, SoftBank, and Foxconn.

6. Google $GOOGL has reportedly capped Meta’s $META use of Gemini AI models due to computing capacity constraints, per Financial Times. The limits have affected some of Meta’s internal projects, with staff told to use AI tokens more efficiently. Meta had been using Gemini to automate safety workflows, but is now leaning more on its own Muse Spark model to reduce reliance on external AI models.

7. Micron $MU is now a top 10 holding in the S&P 500 with a 1.9% weighting, reflecting just how important memory has become in the AI trade. Meanwhile, Nvidia $NVDA has fallen from closer to 8.5% of the index to 6.99%, while Apple $AAPL has dropped from around 7.5% to 6.18%.

8. Anthropic reportedly renegotiated part of its Amazon deal, shifting Claude pricing from compute hours to token-based usage starting next year, per The Information. The change could raise $AMZN’s costs for using Claude across products like Alexa for Shopping, Kiro, and Quick. Amazon is now reportedly evaluating OpenAI and its own Nova models to reduce reliance on Anthropic.

9. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $TSLA with 3.8M contracts, $NVDA with 2.9M contracts, $AMZN with 1.4M contracts, $AAPL with 1.1M contracts, $MSFT with 931K contracts, $MU with 767K contracts, $SPCX with 617K contracts, $INTC with 598K contracts, $MSTR with 533K contracts, and $GOOGL with 489K contracts. 

10. ByteDance is targeting early next year to finalize the design of its next-gen in-house CPU for AI infrastructure, per SCMP. Mass production and broader deployment are expected in H2 2027, as ByteDance looks to support AI workloads across Doubao, Seedance, and other internal platforms. Qualcomm $QCOM is reportedly helping with development and foundry capacity.

11. South Korea unveiled a massive $576B+ AI and chip investment push, with Samsung and SK Hynix expected to invest around $518B. Suppliers will build two new chip fab sites each in southwest Korea, while the broader plan includes a $52.7B chip packaging cluster and a goal to double DRAM output within five years.

12. U.S. online spending across all retailers hit $26.4B during Amazon $AMZN Prime Day, topping Adobe’s $26.3B estimate. Spending rose 9.3% YoY, while BNPL accounted for 6.6% of orders. However, Numerator said average household spending on Amazon fell 8.3% to $143.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.Source: amit

$PLTR DA Davidson upgrades Palantir to Buy from Neutral, PT $175 

Karp going viral by speaking on national television & saying the truth about tokens, software, and compute can definitely make some analysts get a bit more excitedSource: amit

Took some trades on SpaceX $SPCX today. Bought and sold for a few bucks, but this thing is absurdly volatile, which ironically will attract many traders.

130M shares traded after 500M traded on Friday. 

Options open up tomorrow and I would bet that $SPCX is in the top 5 daily, like $NVDA and $TSLA, for most calls/puts traded every single day. 

Holding a $2.3T valuation on $20B of revenue, Elon said over the weekend he feels revenue can 50x by 2030 to $1T. 

Who’s buying?

$SPCX +11%Source: amit

$HOOD

ROBINHOOD WORLD IS FLAT EVENT ANNOUNCEMENTS:

- 1M+ funded customers outside the US

- Launching Robinhood Crypto in the UK

- Maker orders for Crypto launching for US customers 

- Robinhood Crypto officially launching in Canada with 0% trading fees for 90 days

- Granted license to expand brokerage services in Singapore
 
- Launching Agentic Trading for Crypto

- Robinhood Chain officially launches with AI native features to swap tokens, find liquidity pools, and adapt to tokenized real world assets

- New perpetual futures for commodities, ETFs, and FX with up to 10x leverage rolling out in the EU

- Robinhood Cortex with advanced reasoning launching to Gold Subscribers

- Robinhood Earn is rolling out to eligible US customers which allows users to lend USDG onchain through a self-custody wallet and earn an estimated 7% APY

Multiple events per year with multiple products/launches per event. 

Robinhood. Does. Not. Stop.Source: amit

looks like Trump missed his son’s wedding to end the war

S&P 500 $SPX PERPETUAL FUTURES IMPLY A $7600 OPEN 

market likes it Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. 

Here's a full recap:

1. $NVDA reported a massive Q1 2026, with revenue reaching $81.6 billion, up 85% year over year. Data Center revenue hit $75.2 billion, up 92%, while EPS rose 135% to $1.87. Gross margins expanded to 75%, up 14% year over year. Nvidia also guided for $92 billion in Q2 revenue, announced a new $80 billion share buyback, and increased its quarterly dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 per share. The stock was slightly down to flat after hours. 

2. SpaceX officially filed for a Nasdaq IPO under the ticker $SPCX, giving investors the first full public look at the combined SpaceX, Starlink, X, and xAI company. The filing shows 2025 revenue of $18.67 billion, up 30%, but a $4.94 billion net loss after posting a $791 million profit in 2024. The company reported 9,600+ Starlink satellites, about 10.3 million Starlink subscribers across 164 countries, 1GW+ of AI compute nameplate draw, roughly 350 million daily posts, and 550 million monthly active users. Anthropic has also agreed to pay SpaceX $1.25 billion per month through May 2029 for AI compute capacity, with ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee. SpaceX will be a controlled company, with Elon Musk serving as CEO, CTO, and chairman while retaining 85% voting control, meaning he can control major shareholder decisions and the company does not expect to pay Class A dividends anytime soon.

3. $PEP plans to raise prices on smaller chip bags as PepsiCo faces higher costs in the U.S., continuing the broader trend of food companies passing inflation and input cost pressures on to consumers.

4. $GOOGL just announced a new $15 billion investment to build AI infrastructure in Missouri, expanding Google’s U.S. data center and AI compute footprint as competition around AI capacity continues to accelerate.

5. OpenAI is reportedly preparing to file for an IPO as soon as Friday, according to WSJ. The company is working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on a draft prospectus and could file confidentially with regulators in the coming days or weeks. OpenAI is aiming to be ready for a public listing as early as September, though the timeline could still change. The move comes after OpenAI cleared a major legal hurdle in Elon Musk’s case against the company.

6. $BABA Alibaba announced a new AI chip called the Zhenwu M890, which Alibaba says delivers 3x the performance of its previous-generation Zhenwu 810E chip. According to CNBC, the new processor includes 144 GB of GPU memory and interchip bandwidth of 800 GB per second, highlighting Alibaba’s push to strengthen its in-house AI infrastructure and compete more aggressively in the AI compute race.

7. Anthropic’s Q2 revenue is reportedly set to more than double to $10.9 billion, with the company also expected to post its first operating profit, according to the WSJ. Q2 operating profit is projected at $559 million, a major shift from prior investor materials that did not expect full-year profitability until at least 2028. WSJ says the figures were shared with investors during an ongoing funding round that could push Anthropic’s valuation above OpenAI’s. One caveat is that Anthropic may not remain profitable for the full year as compute spending ramps, and the operating profit figure excludes stock-based compensation.

8. April FOMC minutes showed officials generally expect the rate pause to last longer than previously anticipated, with many favoring the removal of the easing bias from the statement. A majority said further policy firming could be appropriate if inflation remains persistently above 2%, with upside risks tied to energy prices, tariffs, and Middle East uncertainty. Several officials said rate cuts could still come later this year if the conflict eases and inflation pressures fade. Labor market conditions are expected to remain stable in the near term, though downside employment risks remain. Almost all officials supported holding rates at 3.50%-3.75%, while one preferred a 25 bps cut.

9. China reportedly added Nvidia’s $NVDA China-specific RTX 5090D V2 gaming chip to a customs banned list last week during Jensen Huang’s visit to Beijing, according to FT. The chip was designed to comply with U.S. export controls and is used by gamers, animators, and AI developers for smaller workloads. The banned list also initially included Nvidia’s H200 and H20 AI chips. Even after U.S. approval for H200 sales to firms like Alibaba and Tencent, shipments remain blocked by Chinese customs.

10. Jeff Bezos in a new interview said today that higher taxes on the wealthy will not solve America’s fiscal problems, arguing that even doubling the billions he already pays would not address the underlying issue of government policy. He also said he plans to give away most of his wealth during his lifetime. Bezos criticized government inefficiency by comparing it to Amazon, saying that if Amazon operated like New York City’s school system, packages would take six weeks, cost $100 to deliver, and still arrive with the wrong item. He also said space data centers are “very realistic” and “will happen,” though a 2-3 year timeline is probably too ambitious.

11. $MU said at JPM’s Boston conference that demand continues to grow and is still outpacing both Micron’s and the industry’s ability to supply because of persistent structural factors. Management emphasized that “cost is a religion,” the balance sheet has “never been stronger,” and the company remains focused on meeting customer demand with higher-quality products. Micron also said strategic customer agreements are helping improve planning and visibility. The company added that its financial outlook has strengthened since the last earnings call and that it is on track for another substantial record free cash flow quarter in fiscal Q3.

12. $INTU reported a strong Q3 while also announcing plans to cut more than 3,000 roles, or about 17% of its workforce. Revenue came in at $8.6 billion, up 10% year over year and above estimates, while adjusted EPS of $12.80 also beat expectations. Intuit raised its FY2026 guidance to $21.34 billion-$21.37 billion in revenue and $23.80-$23.85 in adjusted EPS, while guiding Q4 EPS well above estimates. 

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.Source: amit

Did a stock draft with some friends and these are the 12 picks I have to hold until June 2027…

1. $NVDA
2. $AMD
3. $GEV
4. $TXN
5. $RKLB
6. $RDDT
7. $GOOGL
8. $FIX
9. $AAPL
10. $GLXY
11. $SNDK 
12. $BE

Am I cooked?Source: amit

Why markets got hit with some downside today…

So, it’s important to note that the S&P $SPX was down a mere 0.13% to end the day and is up 2.2% over the past week.

Even the Nasdaq is up 1% over the past week.

It feels like we had some momentum unwind today which is why the most high-beta names, in this case the semis, were down 10-15%.

Why the unwind?

- July is usually good month for stocks but in the past 5 years, has been down 5% on average for momentum stocks. My logic is people take profits going into the summer after a strong Q1 but regardless, July is not good for momentum historically.

- The $META news basically scared the street into thinking there are no more compute constraints and that the capex build is over.

- Nvidia launching a new product today to backstop neoclouds is once again leading to claims of circular financing.

To me, this drawdown feels normal to start July but also it is the 5th type of ugly day we’ve seen in the past few weeks where momentum just dumps hard. The bearish angle on that is the market wants to have a full correction and these dumps are a warning. The bullish angle is these dumps are very, very normal and part of a bull market. $MU having a monster earnings and taking a breather to consolidate isn’t the end of the memory trade but it is a short term stop to the massive euphoric sentiment around it. Same with the neoclouds, same with the photonics names, etc. 

I think labor market news today is noise. The market might actually care but it really doesn’t. All they care about is capex because thats what stocks are priced on right now. Not fed hikes or cuts on a potentially weak labor report. 

What matters deeply is if the demand side picture around compute has changed. If it has, the whole AI trade is over. If it hasn’t, then there is a long way to go on all levels of the stack but once again, the only alpha over the past few months has been taking advantage of these dips as the market has a mini deepseek every other week if they start to question the AI thesis. 

Q2 earnings will be super important to continue justifying the earnings multiple expansion and capex guide but if the summer takes a breather on momentum, it feels like that’s probably the opportunity to continue gaining exposure to the broader AI thesis. 

Without those opportunities, there would be a bubble since vertical moves always get punished and one could argue that we’ve gone so vertical that this type of a drawdown over the past few days is the healthy part of a bull market which creates the opportunities for it to continue.Source: amit