gengyeh
Day 21 - $Wilmar(F34.SG)
My view: Wilmar remains in repair mode after the 1Q2026 earnings-driven selloff. The earlier rebound from the -10% band was constructive, but the latest close at S$3.66 shows the recovery is not yet strong enough to reclaim the S$3.80 gravity zone. I would treat the stock as technically weak-to-neutral until it closes back above S$3.80–S$3.84.
Fundamentally, the pressure still comes from weaker 1Q2026 quality: revenue rose 21.9%, but net profit fell 22.8% and core net profit fell 23.0%, mainly due to temporary hedging losses, weaker associates/JVs, and softer Plantation and Sugar Milling performance. Management expects most hedging losses to reverse when the underlying physical contracts settle, so I see the issue as partly timing-related, but the market is still demanding proof
Day 20 - $Wilmar(F34.SG)
My gravity read has improved from the panic low, but the stock is still below trend. The gravity line is about S$3.80, so price is roughly 2.20% below gravity. This tells me the 30 Apr rebound from the -10% band was meaningful, but Wilmar has not yet fully repaired the technical damage.
The key recovery zone is still S$3.80–S$3.83.
My view on the price drop: the market punished weak 1Q2026 quality, especially the drop in core profit, hedging losses and weaker segment/JV contribution. But the same-day rebound from the -10% gravity band near S$3.43 showed strong value demand at the extreme. The 4 May bounce to S$3.72 confirms that buyers are still active, though the stock remains in recovery mode rather than back in a clean uptrend.
Day 19 - $Wilmar(F34.SG)
Wilmar closed at S$3.61, while the gravity line sits at S$3.81, placing price about -5.18% below trend. During the session, price dropped sharply and touched the -10% gravity band (~S$3.43) before staging a strong rebound into the close.
From my point of view, this is not a clean breakdown — it is a rejection of extreme downside. The selloff was fundamentally driven (weak 1Q earnings quality, hedging losses, softer JV contributions), but the price action shows responsive buying exactly at the -10% support zone.
My interpretation:
The trend has temporarily lost momentum (price below gravity).But the market defended the key support level aggressively. This shifts the setup from “breakdown risk” → “potential mean-reversion bounce”
Analyst context reinforces this. With consensus fair value roughly S$3.57–S$3.65, the drop has pushed Wilmar into fair-value territory, which explains the buying interest at lower levels.
My bottom line:
Wilmar is now in a tactically interesting zone. The stock is technically weak (below gravity), but the strong rejection at -10% suggests downside is being absorbed. If price can reclaim the S$3.75–S$3.81 gravity zone, I would view this as a successful shakeout. If it fails to do so, the risk shifts back toward retesting the S$3.43 support.
Day 18 - $ST Engineering(S63.SG)
ST Engineering closed at S$10.63 on April 28, showing a slight decline that appeared weak, but in essence, it was more of a "technical correction."
First, the most critical point: this day was the ex-date. The company's total dividend of approximately S$0.11 was deducted directly from the stock price, and the actual decline was about S$0.12, almost a perfect match. This means the apparent drop was not a panic withdrawal of funds but a typical "cash return" process.
Placing this within the gravity line framework makes the current rhythm clearer.
The stock price had been trading significantly above the gravity line earlier and approached the +10% resistance zone. At such levels, the market typically begins to show resistance and profit-taking. Subsequently, the price fell back, moving closer to the gravity line again, and briefly dipped below it under the influence of the ex-dividend, entering a "valuation digestion zone."
This is not a trend reversal but a shift from an offensive phase to a consolidation phase.
At the same time, a seemingly contradictory phenomenon emerged: the company announced large orders, but the stock price did not continue to rise. The core reason is that these positive factors had already been priced into the market during the earlier rally. The market's focus has now shifted from "whether there are orders" to "when these orders will translate into profits."
Brokerage views also reflect this shift. On one hand, some institutions maintain relatively high target prices, optimistic about long-term order visibility and growth in the defense business; on the other hand, some have turned cautious, believing the current valuation already reflects most growth expectations, with limited short-term profit improvement.
From a market behavior perspective, fund actions are more direct—some chose to take profits at high levels, while others are waiting for lower, more certain positions to re-enter. This divergence is not essentially bearish but a difference in timing.
Structurally, the current price has fallen below the gravity line, indicating weakened short-term momentum; however, it has not yet reached the -10% support level (around S$9.95), meaning it has not entered a strong support phase. The overall position is in a "mid-stage consolidation," not a trend break.
【Week 2】$Seatrium(5E2.SG)health check
Seatrium closed at S$2.4 on 28 Apr 2026, after moving from S$2.34 to S$2.41 intraday. Recent price action has pulled back from the early-April high around S$2.48–S$2.51, but it is still sitting slightly above the gravity proxy at about S$2.37. That means the stock is not in a deep support zone; it is consolidating near fair value rather than showing a strong overbought or oversold signal.
Financially, FY2025 was stronger: Seatrium doubled net profit to S$324m, with net order book at S$17.8b across 24 projects, giving visibility through 2033.
Recent announcements are also constructive: Seatrium completed its tugboat fleet divestment on 24 Apr 2026, supporting its non-core asset optimisation plan, and launched S$400m 2.95% notes under its S$3b programme, likely improving funding flexibility.
Day 17 - $ST Engineering(S63.SG)
ST Engineering had been on a strong upward trend, with market sentiment very hot. The stock price once surged above S$11.40. During this phase, investors were buying into the story of "defense order growth + major contracts + long-term profit visibility."
But when the stock price rises too fast, the market starts asking one question: Has the good news already been priced in?
Therefore, even after the company won major contracts, the stock price still fell from its highs to the latest S$10.75. This decline doesn't seem like a sudden deterioration in fundamentals, but more like the market undergoing a "cooling-off adjustment."
Looking at the gravitational line, the latest closing price of S$10.75 is already below the gravitational line of S$11.07. My interpretation is: short-term funds are stepping back to observe. The stock price is temporarily no longer in a strong offensive mode but has entered a phase of retesting and confirmation.
The contracts are positive, and long-term order visibility is stronger, but the stock price had already run up in anticipation. Now the market needs to see these contracts truly translate into revenue, profit margins, and cash flow before it is willing to push the valuation higher again.
So my view is:
The medium-to-long-term story for ST Engineering is not broken; in fact, the order book is more solid. However, the short-term stock price has shifted from a "FOMO buying rally" to a "valuation digestion phase." The area around S$10.75 is the first observation point. If it can hold and climb back above the S$11.07 gravitational line, the uptrend will strengthen again. If it fails to hold, the next step might be to seek stronger support around S$10.00.
Day 17 - $Wilmar(F34.SG)
From my gravity-line framework, the equilibrium level continues to sit in the S$3.78–S$3.82 region. With price at S$3.87, the stock is trading modestly above its center of gravity by roughly 1–2%, which signals trend support remains intact but without strong upside acceleration.
Technically, the structure still reflects a controlled uptrend transitioning into consolidation. The repeated inability to sustain moves above the low-S$3.90s suggests near-term supply remains active, while the S$3.80 area continues to act as a dependable demand zone. This tightening range is characteristic of a stock digesting prior gains rather than initiating a fresh breakout.
From a positioning standpoint, I view Wilmar as stable and supported, but currently range-bound. The gravity alignment implies downside risk is contained as long as price holds above the high-S$3.70s, while a decisive clearance of ~S$3.93 would be required to re-establish momentum. Until then, the setup favors measured accumulation on weakness rather than aggressive trend chasing.
【Week 1 -$Wilmar(F34.SG) health check】
Wilmar looks financially solid but not high-growth. Earnings are stable with moderate growth, though margins remain exposed to commodity cycles.
In FY2025, Wilmar reported about US$70.42 billion in revenue, US$1.41 billion in net profit, US$1.28 billion in core net profit, and 22.6 US cents diluted EPS. Total assets were about US$65.64 billion and shareholders’ funds about US$21.87 billion.
My bottom line: Wilmar still looks technically healthy and fundamentally solid, but it is behaving more like a steady consolidation above trend than a fresh breakout. A clean move through the recent S$3.91–S$3.93 area would improve the setup.
Day 16 - $Wilmar(F34.SG)
From my point of view, the tone has improved. The gravity line on the refreshed chart is about S$3.79, which leaves Wilmar roughly 2.73% above its center line. That tells me the stock is back on the constructive side of trend, but not in a stretched condition. I do not see this as a breakout move yet. I see it as a healthy recovery that has restored positive structure without pushing the stock into an overheated zone.
What stands out to me is the quality of the rebound. Price has moved back toward the high-S$3.80s and low-S$3.90s, but the daily candles still show some resistance whenever the stock tries to extend. That usually means buyers are in control, but they are still meeting supply on the way up. In practical terms, Wilmar looks stable and constructive, though it still needs a stronger close through the recent upper band before I would call for a more aggressive upside leg.
My concise view: Wilmar looks technically healthy to me, with trend support holding and momentum improving, but the stock is still behaving more like a steady consolidation above gravity than a decisive breakout above resistance. A firm move through the recent S$3.91–S$3.93 area would improve the setup further.
$Wilmar(F34.SG)
early sign of double bottom, if could break out $4.02 with substantial volume then signal is confirmed
Day 15 - $Wilmar(F34.SG)
Wilmar’s gravity line is about S$3.80, which puts the stock roughly 0.92% above gravity. The +10% band is about S$4.19 and the +20% band is about S$4.57. From my point of view, that keeps Wilmar in a constructive trend posture, but only marginally so. The stock is still trading on the right side of its center line, yet it is no longer carrying the stronger expansion profile it had when it was pressing the S$3.90–S$4.00 zone. That tells me momentum has cooled into consolidation rather than failed outright.
My read is that the tape has shifted from upside thrust to digestion. The last few sessions show Wilmar backing off from the recent high area, and the market is now testing whether buyers will continue to defend the S$3.80 region. That matters because external technical summaries also flag S$3.80 as a notable support area, while nearby resistance sits around S$3.85 to S$3.87.
So my finance view is this: Wilmar still looks structurally firm, but the setup is less aggressive than it was a week ago. Above gravity, I stay constructive. A decisive recovery back through S$3.85–S$3.87 would improve the near-term tone, while a clean break back under S$3.80 would tell me the stock is slipping from orderly consolidation into a deeper mean reversion phase. For now, I would describe it as bullish structure, softer momentum.
Day 14 - $Wilmar(F34.SG)
From my point of view, the chart still looks constructive, but the stock has clearly stepped back from the more aggressive momentum phase we saw near the S$4.00 area. On the refreshed chart, the gravity line is about S$3.73, so Wilmar is trading around 3.78% above its center line. That tells me the stock remains on the strong side of trend, but it is no longer pressing the kind of extension that would suggest immediate upside acceleration. In practical terms, this looks more like trend maintenance than breakout behavior.
What I find most notable is the way price is behaving after the early-April push. Wilmar challenged the higher zone around S$4.00 last week, but the latest completed sessions have settled back into the high-S$3.80s. I read that as a market that is still healthy, yet now more selective. Buyers are defending the structure above the gravity line, but they are not chasing price with the same urgency they showed when the stock first broke higher. That usually points to consolidation rather than breakdown.
My base case remains constructive. As long as Wilmar stays above the gravity line, I still see the broader bullish structure as intact. The stock does not look weak to me; it looks like it is pausing and rebalancing after a strong run. If it can reclaim the upper zone near S$3.90 to S$4.00 with conviction, I would take that as the next signal that momentum is rebuilding. If it continues to hover around current levels, I would interpret that as a healthy digestion phase rather than a material loss of trend control.
Day 13 - $Wilmar(F34.SG)
From my point of view, the stock still looks technically strong, but the tone has shifted slightly from clean acceleration to mild resistance testing. On the refreshed chart, the gravity line is about S$3.72, so Wilmar is trading roughly 5.51% above its center line. That tells me the stock is still firmly on the strong side of trend, but not as close to equilibrium as it was a few sessions ago. It is extended enough to attract some friction, though not so far stretched that I would call the move exhausted.
What I find most telling is the combination of intraday strength and the softer close. Wilmar pushed above S$4.00 intraday and reached S$4.01, but it did not hold that level into the close. To me, that suggests buyers are still aggressive enough to challenge higher prices, yet supply is beginning to show up whenever the stock probes that next psychological zone. I read that as a healthy but more contested uptrend rather than a clean breakout.
Day 13 - $Wilmar(F34.SG)
Wilmar is trading at S$3.98, above the previous close of S$3.93, with today’s session so far showing S$3.96 open, S$4.02 high, and S$3.94 low. On the chart, the gravity line is around S$3.72, so price is sitting about 7.07% above its center line.
From my point of view, the tone has clearly strengthened. Earlier, the stock was recovering in a measured way after a pullback. Now it is behaving more like a name with active momentum behind it. Price is no longer just holding above equilibrium. It is pulling away from it, which tells me buyers are still willing to step up rather than wait for a deeper retracement.
I still do not see the move as exhausted. The stock is more extended than before, so the chance of resistance and slower upside has increased, but the structure still looks like an advancing trend rather than a blow-off rally. The intraday push above S$4.00 matters because it shows the market is testing higher ground while the broader trend remains intact.
What I am watching now is whether Wilmar can continue holding around the S$3.98 to S$4.00 area. If it can, I would take that as a sign that buyers are absorbing supply well and keeping the trend healthy. If it starts stalling repeatedly around this zone, I would read that as a signal that the market may need a short consolidation before it can push higher again.
My bottom line is that Wilmar still looks technically strong to me. The bullish structure remains intact, momentum is clearly present, and the market is acting like it wants to challenge higher levels. At the same time, price is now far enough above the gravity line that the next part of the move may become less smooth and more vulnerable to pauses or short-term resistance.
Day 12 - $Wilmar(F34.SG)
On the chart I generated, the gravity line is 3.71, so the stock is still about 2.75% above gravity. The derived bands on the latest bar are +10% at 4.08, +20% at 4.45, -10% at 3.34, and -20% at 2.97. In my view, that places the stock in a mildly constructive position rather than a stretched one: it is above its equilibrium line, but nowhere near the upper extension zones. That usually argues for “trend intact, momentum cooling” rather than “breakout acceleration.”
The tape also supports that interpretation. Wilmar had pushed up to 3.93 during this recent window, then eased back into the 3.81–3.85 area over the last few sessions. The latest day’s range was 3.77 to 3.86, which tells me short-term buyers are still present, but they are no longer pressing price higher with the same force seen in mid-March
From a positioning standpoint, I would frame 3.71 as the key mean-reversion reference. As long as price holds above that level, I would still classify Wilmar as trading on the strong side of balance. A decisive move back toward the gravity line would suggest consolidation is deepening; a renewed push through the recent 3.88–3.93 zone would be the cleaner signal that upside momentum is reasserting itsel
Day 11 - $Wilmar(F34.SG)
On my gravity-line framework, the stock is still in a constructive position. The freshly built chart puts the gravity line at about S$3.688, with Wilmar trading roughly 3.9% above gravity. That tells me the trend is still positive, but the name is not yet extended. The upper +10% gravity band is near S$4.06, so current price action is firm without looking euphoric.
My read is that this is a healthy consolidation after a strong March recovery rather than the start of a deeper technical unwind. Wilmar came into April after pushing from the low S$3.30s in early March to a late-March close of S$3.85, then eased modestly on April 1. That kind of pause, while still holding above gravity, usually argues for trend digestion rather than trend failure.
Day 10 - $Wilmar(F34.SG)
My updated gravity-line read is constructive. On the current build, the gravity line is about S$3.682, so price is trading roughly 4.8% above gravity. The +10% band is near S$4.05 and the +20% band is near S$4.418. That tells me Wilmar is in positive territory versus its equilibrium trend, but it is not stretched enough yet to look technically overheated. The tape is firm, not euphoric.
From my point of view, this is the kind of price structure bulls want to see. Wilmar has already proven it can re-accelerate after the mid-March consolidation, and the March 31 close at S$3.86 keeps it close to the upper end of the recent range, though still below the March 18 high/price area around S$3.90–S$3.93 seen in the recent data. Until that zone is decisively cleared, I read the stock as strong but still in confirmation mode rather than in outright breakout mode.
My practical takeaway is straightforward: Wilmar still looks like a buy-the-dip trend rather than a chase-the-spike trade. As long as price stays comfortably above the gravity line, pullbacks look like consolidation inside a healthy uptrend. A clean push through the S$3.90–S$3.93 ceiling would strengthen the case for another leg higher; failure there would more likely mean sideways digestion than trend failure.
Day 9 - $Wilmar(F34.SG)
On my gravity model, Wilmar’s gravity line is about S$3.663, so the stock is now trading roughly 5.1% above gravity. That is stronger than the March 27 reading, but still not a truly stretched condition. In my view, this is a bullish but not euphoric setup: price has lifted away from equilibrium, yet it remains well inside the usual overheating zone, with the +10% band near S$4.03 and the +20% band near S$4.40 based on the rebuilt series.
My read is constructive. The stock has now pushed back toward the upper end of its recent March range after the pullback from the March 18 peak around S$3.90. That matters because Wilmar is no longer merely bouncing off mean support; it is pressing back toward prior resistance with improving follow-through. The recent tape shows a recovery from the mid-March reset, including the March 27 rebound and the stronger March 30 close.
From my perspective, the technical posture is now positive with a near-term momentum bias. As long as Wilmar holds around or above the gravity line, I would treat dips as consolidation rather than technical damage. The key next test is whether the stock can decisively clear the S$3.88 to S$3.90 area. A clean break there would argue for trend continuation; failure there would more likely mean sideways digestion above gravity, not necessarily a bearish reversal. Wilmar’s own investor-relations data also shows the stock’s recent period high at S$3.90 on March 18, 2026, which reinforces that as the immediate resistance marker.
Day - 8 $Wilmar(F34.SG)
On the updated chart, the gravity line is about S$3.666, so Wilmar is now trading roughly 3.4% above gravity. The +10% band is near S$4.033, and the +20% band is near S$4.399. That tells me the stock has rebounded cleanly off its recent equilibrium retest.
My read is that Wilmar’s price action improved meaningfully on March 27. The stock had already cooled from the March 18 high near S$3.90 back toward the gravity line over the past week, and Friday’s close at S$3.79 now looks like the first credible attempt to re-accelerate away from that mean-reversion zone. In my view, this is a constructive development because price is no longer extended, yet buyers were still able to step in and push the stock higher off trend support. That is typically how a durable uptrend repairs itself after a short-term reset.
From my point of view, Wilmar is back in a constructive re-accumulation phase. I do not see the current setup as overheated; I see it as a stock that has already worked off excess and is now trying to rebuild upside momentum from a much healthier technical position. As long as price stays above or near the gravity line, I would remain constructive. The next real test is whether Wilmar can push back into the S$3.80–S$3.90 area with follow-through. A failure there would argue for more sideways digestion, but a clean reclaim would tell me the market is ready to challenge the prior highs again.
Day 7 - $Wilmar(F34.SG)
Trend bias: Bullish
Market phase: Transitioning into structured uptrend
Tactical stance: Favor pullbacks over breakouts
Risk trigger: Breakdown below ~3.60
My view: Wilmar is moving into a controlled uptrend regime, where continuation is more likely than reversal—but with a slower, more disciplined ascent rather than another sharp impulse leg.
Day 6 - $Wilmar(F34.SG)
My read: Wilmar still looks technically constructive, but today’s pullback took some heat out of a market that had been running well ahead of trend
From my perspective, the key point is that price remains above the gravity line rather than below it. On my chart, the gravity line is a 20-session moving average of closes, which now sits around SGD 3.65 based on the daily series I plotted. That leaves Wilmar only about 1.6% above trend after today’s drop, versus a much more extended position a few sessions ago. I read that as healthy de-stretching, not technical damage. The stock is no longer overextended versus its central trend, but it has not broken trend support either
The near-term tone is therefore positive-neutral. A clean hold above roughly SGD 3.65 keeps the uptrend intact in my view. If buyers reassert control, the recent highs around SGD 3.88 to SGD 3.90 become the first area that matters. If the stock loses the gravity line decisively, I would expect mean reversion risk toward the lower band region around the low SGD 3.30s rather than an immediate collapse.
Net-net, my stance is that Wilmar remains in an upward trend, but the easy momentum phase has cooled. Above the gravity line, I stay constructive. A break below it would shift me from “buy the dip” to “wait for a better reset.”
Day 5 - $Wilmar(F34.SG)
My read: Wilmar is still trading materially above its gravity line, but today’s selloff pushed it back toward the upper gravity band instead of extending cleanly through it. That is not outright bearish, but it does tell me the last stretch of upside had become crowded. At roughly 9% above gravity, the stock remains on the rich side of its medium-term equilibrium, so upside from here looks less efficient unless price can quickly reclaim the 3.83–3.90 zone with conviction.
Day 4 - $Wilmar(F34.SG)
Wilmar’s latest available session closed at S$3.88 on March 19, 2026, after closing S$3.90 on March 18, 2026. On March 19, the day’s range was S$3.84 to S$3.91; on March 18, it was S$3.83 to S$3.93.
On the refreshed chart, the gravity line is about S$3.537, and Wilmar at S$3.88 is sitting ~9.71% above that line. The +10% band is about S$3.89, so price is still pressing right under the first resistance threshold, while the +20% band is much higher near S$4.244. That means the stock remains stretched upward, but it has not entered the more extreme overbought zone under the gravity framework.
Against the gravity theory, the latest price action looks like a **pause just below resistance** rather than a clean breakout. Wilmar pushed from S$3.80 on March 13 to S$3.90 on March 18, then eased slightly to S$3.88 on March 19. That small pullback after tagging the +10% area fits the gravity's idea that once price reaches the first upper band, sell pressure can start to appear and momentum may begin flattening before any reversion toward the gravity line.
My read is: **the trend is still bullish, but the stock is now behaving like it is testing the +10% gravity ceiling, so upside may need consolidation before any further extension.
One-line gravity comment: Wilmar is hovering just below the +10% gravity band, so the uptrend is intact, but the latest candles suggest resistance is starting to build and a pause or mild reversion is becoming more likely.
Day 3 - $Wilmar(F34.SG)
Wilmar closed at S$3.90 on March 18, 2026, up from S$3.88 on March 17, with the day trading between S$3.83 and S$3.93.
On the refreshed chart, the gravity line is about S$3.539, so price is now sitting roughly 10.19% above it. That puts Wilmar just through the +10% band rather than anywhere near the +20% stretch zone. In my view, that means the trend is still strong, but the stock has now moved into the area where upside typically starts to face noticeable resistance and the odds of pause, sideways digestion, or a pullback toward the gravity line increase.
The recent price action also supports that read: Wilmar climbed from S$3.37 on March 4 to S$3.90 on March 18, a sharp move in a short span, and the latest close is also the highest price shown in the current window on the Investing.com historical page. That kind of acceleration is bullish, but once price pushes above the +10% gravity band, I treat it as a zone where momentum needs fresh follow-through to keep extending cleanly.
One-line comment: Wilmar has pushed slightly above the +10% gravity band, so the uptrend is intact, but price is now in the zone where resistance usually starts to build and reversion risk becomes more real.
Day 2 - $Wilmar(F34.SG)
the gravity line on March 17, 2026 is about S$3.51, and price at S$3.86 is sitting ~9.97% above that line, which puts Wilmar essentially right at +10% resistance threshold rather than deep into the +20% overextension zone. That means the stock is still in an upward trend, but under the gravity theory it is now in the area where upside momentum can start meeting resistance and a pause, consolidation, or pullback toward the gravity line becomes more likely. The fact that price advanced from S$3.37 on March 4 to S$3.86 by March 16–17 without breaking into a clear +20% extension also suggests a strong but not yet extreme stretch.
Wilmar has rallied to the doorstep of the +10% gravity band, so momentum remains bullish, but price is now entering the zone where resistance typically starts to build and reversion risk rises